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Viewing cable 08SURABAYA99, EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: 98TH GEYSER APPEARS AMID PROTESTS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08SURABAYA99 2008-08-25 10:14 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Consulate Surabaya
VZCZCXRO7751
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0099 2381014
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251014Z AUG 08
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0277
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0146
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0263
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0282
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0146
RUEHCAA/GEOLOGICAL SURVEY DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SURABAYA 000099 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, EB/ESC/IEC 
DEPT FOR DC/IP/EAP 
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/P-42 
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV EPET ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: 98TH GEYSER APPEARS AMID PROTESTS 
THAT COULD CAUSE DIKE COLLAPSE 
 
REF: SURABAYA 85 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: As river levels rise due to increased 
sedimentation, local residents forced the Sidoarjo Mud 
Management Agency (BPLS) to stop pumping mud slurry into the 
Porong River.  BPLS estimates that the added pressure could 
cause dike failure within several days, although the dikes' 
tolerance levels are unknown.  Meanwhile, geysers and cash 
flares are erupting in communities several kilometers from the 
epicenter creating public anger and increased concern about the 
ever widening impact of subsidence.  End Summary. 
 
Protests Threaten Dike Integrity 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) A standoff with angry residents has stalled mud 
mitigation efforts and threatens the stability of the 
containment's dikes.  For over a year and a half, the Sidoarjo 
Mud Management Agency (BPLS) has pumped mud slurry from holding 
ponds into the Porong River.  According to BPLS, this has been 
the only thing preventing a buildup of pressure behind the 
earthen dikes and their large-scale collapse.  BPLS stopped 
pumping mud into the Porong in the afternoon of August 20 after 
residents of Kupang village demanded that BPLS shutdown the 
pipes.  As of 25 August pumping has yet to resume according to 
BPLS. As a result, each day an estimated 100,000 cubic meters of 
volcanic mud is added to nearby holding ponds and is approaching 
dangerous levels, according to BPLS engineers.  Even when 
pumping is proceeding normally earth must be added to the dike 
walls due to continued subsidence (reftel). 
 
3.  (SBU) An August 21, visit by Congen Surabaya to the mudflow 
containment showed that this dry season is the strongest test 
for mitigation efforts yet.  The original spillway connecting 
the containment with the river at its nearest point is now no 
longer used for disposing of the mud.  Currently pumps force the 
mud slurry through pipes over a considerably longer distance. 
Now even this "plan B" for mud disposal is proving problematic 
due to protests and low river levels during the dry season. A 
BPLS geologist told us that at current flow rates the 
containment's earthen dikes could fail after several days, yet 
how much more the dikes might hold, and for how long, remains 
unknown. 
 
Geysers Erupt Well Beyond the Epicenter 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Geysers and gas flares caused by increasing subsidence 
continue to expand the area affected by the disaster well beyond 
the containment area.  On August 19th, more gas flares erupted 
and several powerful geysers have appeared in Siring, some two 
kilometers west of the epicenter (reftel).  Angry over their 
exclusion from compensation, Siring residents forcibly detained 
a BPLS spokesman and his staff for several hours and stopped the 
fire department from extinguishing a methane gas flare. 
According to a BPLS contact and local media, this was an effort 
to preserve evidence of the danger they face and bolster claims 
for compensation.  Nearby Jatirejo village, just a kilometer 
west of the containment, reported its 98th geyser on August 12. 
Geysers and gas flares continue their march farther from the 
epicenter as subsidence continues.  Mindi village, three and a 
half kilometers southwest of the mudflow epicenter, reported its 
first geyser on August 8. 
 
MCCLELLAND