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Viewing cable 08RIGA453, Referendum on popular rights to dismiss Saeima falls short

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08RIGA453 2008-08-04 13:46 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Riga
VZCZCXRO2767
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHRA #0453 2171346
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041346Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5125
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS RIGA 000453 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV LG
SUBJECT: Referendum on popular rights to dismiss Saeima falls short 
of required turnout 
 
1. Summary. According to provisional results, the August 2 
referendum on amending the Constitution to give the public the right 
to initiate the dissolution of the Saeima (Parliament) failed to 
meet the required voter participation to be considered valid.  43% 
of all eligible voters participated in the vote, but this fell short 
of the 50% required for a constitutional amendment.  Of those who 
participated, 97% voted yes to the proposed amendment.  Under 
Latvian law, the referendum is ruled ineffective and nofurther 
action is legally required, however, President Zatlers has announced 
that he will convene an extra-ordinary Saeima session (most likely 
on August 6) to address the situation.  He will likely submit at a 
later date his own proposed constitutional amendments on the rights 
of the people to initiate a dismissal of Saeima, which were 
developed by legal experts on the President's Constitutional 
Commission.  End summary. 
 
--------------- 
Numbers 
--------------- 
 
2.  628,831 people (roughly 150,000 short of the required 757,607 - 
or 50% of all eligible voters- needed to be valid) participated in 
the referendum.  96.75% voted for the proposed constitutional 
amendments, while 3% voted against.  The August 2 referendum had the 
third highest level of participation in Latvia's history, after the 
referendum on Latvia's membership in the EU in 2003 and amendments 
to the Naturalization Law in 1998. 
 
-------------- 
Effects 
-------------- 
 
3. The significant number of people who supported the constitutional 
amendments has forced all political forces, even those that 
previously did not support the amendments, to voice their readiness 
to amend the Constitution and grant Latvian citizens the right to 
initiate a dismissal of Saeima (currently only the President can 
initiate a dismissal).  PM Godmanis, leader of the Union of the 
Greens and Farmers Brigmanis, and People's Party Saeima faction head 
Kucinskis have said that they are ready to consider/initiate 
constitutional amendments on the public's right to initiate a 
dissolution of Saeima.  The opposition parties, which lobbied for 
the amendments, are convinced that the results of the referendum 
show extreme frustration with the current legislature and are 
calling on President Zatlers to dismiss the 9th Saeima.  For his 
part, the President announced that he will convene an extraordinary 
session of Saeima to discuss the results of the referendum He is 
also expected to propose his set of constitutional amendments which 
would grant the public the right to initiate a dismissal of the 
Saeima (though he has not explicitly called to dismiss the current 
Saeima), although this may not happen until the fall.  The draft 
amendments to be proposed by the President have been drafted by a 
widely-respected team of experts on constitutional rights. 
 
4. Comment. Though the August 2 referendum on the constitutional 
amendments will be considered legally invalid due to falling short 
of the required number of voters, the overall turnout was higher 
than expected.  This stronger than expected turnout, and the 
overwhelming vote in favor by those who did participate, is too 
significant to be ignored by Latvia's political forces, and it is 
quite likely that some form of amendments to the constitution 
granting the public the right to initiate the dismissal of Saeima 
may be adopted after all.  The fact that the president will likely 
submit a draft written by eminent legal scholars is also good 
because the version voted on in the referendum drew some criticism 
for being poorly worded.  Some political experts are containing 
their optimism, believing that the support for the constitutional 
amendments voiced by the ruling coalition post-referendum does not 
mean anything and that they will do everything possible to kill 
President Zatlers' amendments in the fall session.  On a positive 
note, the referendum process exposed some encouraging developments 
in Latvian politics, namely that considering all circumstances, the 
number of people who voted in the referendum was surprisingly high 
(higher than the total number of the voters who voted for the ruling 
coalition parties in the last Saeima elections), showing that civil 
society is an active force.  A well-planned move by investigative 
journalists from the Latvian television program "Nothing Personal" 
to announce the names of political forces and politicians who had 
been funded by indicted Ventspils Mayor Aivars Lembergs, to 
represent his interests in Saeima, just a night before the 
referendum might have contributed to the higher turnout. 
 
 
WASER