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Viewing cable 08BOGOTA2892, S/P DIRECTOR GORDON DISCUSSES COLOMBIA'S ECONOMIC

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BOGOTA2892 2008-08-06 15:27 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0019
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #2892/01 2191527
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061527Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4067
INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0818
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AUG 9592
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 6426
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 7129
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO PRIORITY 9108
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 2413
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 4528
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAWJC/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS BOGOTA 002892 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KJUS CO ECIN ECON
SUBJECT: S/P DIRECTOR GORDON DISCUSSES COLOMBIA'S ECONOMIC 
OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES 
 
REF: BOGOTA 2855 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: Finance Minister Oscar Ivan Zuluaga told 
Director of Policy Planning Dr. David Gordon on July 23 that 
the long-term outlook for the Colombian economy remains 
strong despite turmoil in international markets, rising 
inflation, and appreciation of the peso.  He pointed to 
energy, infrastructure, and agriculture sectors as prime 
investment opportunities.  Zuluaga pressed for conclusion of 
the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) as an 
important step to promoting investment, increasing 
competitiveness, and reducing poverty in Colombia. In 
separate meetings with the business community in Bogota and 
Medellin, private sector leaders expressed support for 
President Uribe's security and economic policies but had 
mixed views on his bid for a third term. Gordon urged the GOC 
to look at increasing economic relations with Asia and other 
emerging markets as a means for further investment in 
Colombia.  He also urged regional cooperation with 
like-minded countries on security and 
counter-narcotrafficking efforts. Gordon added that 
public-private partnerships on infrastructure projects and 
education programs would also increase the effectiveness and 
impact of these efforts.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Minister of Finance: Strong Economic Outlook 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) In a private meeting following the bilateral Policy 
Planning dialogue on July 23 (reftel), Finance Minister Oscar 
Ivan Zuluaga told Director of Policy Planning Dr. David 
Gordon that, despite current turmoil in international 
markets, rising inflation, and the steep appreciation of the 
Colombian Peso, the long-term outlook for the Colombian 
economy remains strong.  Zuluaga highlighted the improved 
security situation and economic liberalization under 
President Uribe,s administration as key to Colombia,s 
strong economic performance in recent years.  He acknowledged 
that Colombia was navigating a difficult course between 
rising inflation and currency appreciation, but expressed 
confidence that Colombia offered many opportunities for 
continued long-term growth.  Zuluaga identified the energy, 
infrastructure, and agriculture sectors as prime investment 
opportunities.  He cited the post-Uribe political outlook as 
the top risk to the economy, insisting that strong leadership 
must continue to make economic reforms and security gains 
permanent.  Zuluaga also emphasized that conclusion of the 
U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) was extremely 
important to promoting investment, increasing competitiveness 
and building a solid foundation for job creation and poverty 
reduction in Colombia. 
 
3. (SBU) Gordon reiterated that the USG remains fully 
committed to achieving approval of the CTPA and understood 
the political and economic implications of continued delay. 
Gordon characterized Colombia as positioned at a moment of 
great economic opportunity as a result of security gains, its 
resource base, and the strength of its democratic and 
economic institutions.  He identified Colombia and Brazil as 
the best positioned countries in South America to take 
advantage of developments in the world economy. Gordon urged 
the GOC to look at increasing economic relations with Asia 
and other emerging markets as a means for further raising 
investment in Colombia.  He also encouraged Colombia to look 
at sectors such as hydroelectric generation as growth 
opportunities.  Gordon concluded by noting the positive cycle 
that Colombia was currently in had the potential to feed more 
positive growth as long as the GOC remained committed to the 
Uribe Administration,s successful democratic security and 
economic liberalization policies over the long-term. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Private Sector Bullish; Need Infrastructure Investment 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
4. (SBU) At separate meetings in Bogota and Medellin, 
business leaders explained that strong institutions and 
increased security have bolstered a stronger private sector. 
 
Now, expanding competitiveness through 
infrastructure-building in ports, railroads, highways, and 
hydroelectric plants emerged as new necessities. They urged 
joint ventures in oil, gas, mining, and services sectors, 
along with a new outlook on biofuels.  Politically, 
Colombia's successes are America's successes and should be 
publicized in that context, especially noting that Colombia 
remains a strong ally in a region that faces threats to 
democracy and stability from Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador. 
 
5. (U)  Business leaders noted the need to increase 
productivity, science and technology projects, and focus on 
long term growth for sustainability.  Corporate social 
responsibility is already a major focus among firms, and they 
want to see more investment towards education programs, 
including the Fulbright scholarships. They claimed there were 
more Cuban than American professors teaching at public 
universities in Colombia--a serious disadvantage for training 
future leaders.  Colombia's flexible labor regulations, low 
corruption, strong arbitration, rule of law, security, tax 
incentives (greatest in the hemisphere), and human resources 
all contribute to favorable conditions for foreign 
investment. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Uribe Popular but Reelection Bad for Democracy 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6. (SBU) Despite President Uribe's high approval ratings in 
the country and within the business community, participants 
at the roundtable were mixed on a potential third term. 
Concerns remain about who could succeed Uribe and continue 
his pro-security, pro-business policies, especially given 
Colombia's history of having a "pendulum effect" of good 
presidents followed by bad ones.  The head of a large mining 
concern queried whether the societal consensus that Uribe had 
generated in favor of democratic, private sector-led growth 
was firm enough to survive his departure in two years' time. 
Luis Carlos Villegas, an Uribe ally and President of 
Colombia's largest business association (ANDI), offered the 
opposing view, stating that changing the constitution for a 
third term reelection would be damaging for democracy and 
institution-building.  He was on public record as opposing a 
third term, and believed ultimately Uribe would not run. 
 
7. (U) In response to questions about U.S. views of Colombia, 
Gordon emphasized the strong bipartisan support and 
partnership through Plan Colombia.  Colombia--along with 
Brazil, Mexico, and Chile--could be strong political and 
economic anchors in the region, and share experiences on 
security and counter-narcotrafficking efforts. Public-private 
partnerships would benefit infrastructure projects and 
education programs. He also encouraged business leaders to 
focus on balancing social inclusion with economic growth. 
 
8.  (U)  S/P staff has cleared this message. 
BROWNFIELD