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Viewing cable 08RIGA439, Latvia to hold two referenda in August

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08RIGA439 2008-07-25 14:54 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Riga
VZCZCXRO6318
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHRA #0439 2071454
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251454Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5111
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS RIGA 000439 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV LG
SUBJECT: Latvia to hold two referenda in August 
 
Ref: Riga 151 
 
1. Summary. Traditionally, the August vacation season has been down 
time in Latvian politics, but this year Latvians will be called on 
to mobilize twice for public referenda.  On August 2, Latvian 
citizens will be asked to vote on constitutional amendments 
providing voters with the power to dismiss the Saeima (Parliament) 
through a national referendum. On August 23 they will vote on 
amendments setting the minimum pension at the official subsistence 
level. Opinion polls show strong support for both proposed 
amendments.  However, it is very unlikely that the required minimum 
number of people will vote for either of the amendments to become 
law. 
 
2.   Both draft amendments were proposed by private groups and were 
supported by Latvian citizens in signature-gathering drives in 
numbers sufficient to place them on the Saeima agenda. The Saeima, 
however, voted against both proposed amendments. The ruling 
coalition stated that in general it agrees with the proposal that 
the Constitution should grant the people the right to initiate 
Saeima's dismissal, but objected to the wording of the proposed 
amendment, arguing that it was too vague. The main argument against 
the pensions amendment was that the proposal is nothing more than 
populism and that it would wreak havoc on the national budget. 
 
3.  According to Latvian law, after Saeima rejection of both 
proposed amendments, the Central Election Commission (CEC) set dates 
for holding referenda on the proposals.  The CEC noted that it was 
legally impossible (because of restrictions on the time between 
review by the Saeima and the referendum date) to hold both votes on 
the same day, which according to advocates of the amendments would 
have increased the turnout and saved state money.  It is estimated 
that each referendum will cost about 2.1 million lats ($4.7 million 
USD). 
 
4. So far, neither advocates of the draft amendments (mostly the 
opposition parties) nor the ruling coalition have conducted any 
highly visible campaigns for or against the proposed amendments. 
The ruling coalition has taken its usual passive stance, limited to 
statements that referenda are a waste of money and that they will 
not participate in any of them.  Meanwhile, almost all opposition 
political parties have voiced their support for the proposed 
amendments and plan to hold some kind of referendum promotion 
campaign. For instance, several opposition parties and well-known 
public figures established an NGO called "For the Rights of 
People!", to conduct awareness-raising activities to call people to 
vote for the proposed constitutional amendments.  Contrary to the 
ruling coalition, Latvian President Zatlers has clearly voiced his 
view that the public and political parties should take active part 
in the referenda, though he has not revealed his stances on the 
issues discussed. 
 
5. The required level of turnout for the referenda to be considered 
valid is very high.  In both cases, participation in the vote must 
be half of voters who participated in the last Saeima elections. 
Additionally, the referendum on the constitutional amendment 
requires "yes" votes from half of all eligible voters (756,400). 
This number is over 3 times the number of people who participated in 
the signature drive for the amendment, and is not far from the total 
turnout in the last Saeima elections (908,979). 
6. Comment. Considering the high requirement for the number of votes 
needed and the fact that August is the most popular month in Latvia 
for vacations, it is very unlikely that either of the referendums 
will draw the required number of votes to be considered valid and 
result in the adoption of the proposed amendments.  Thus, the most 
significant result of the referenda will probably be the cost of 
running the voting.  The proposed pension amendment could bolster 
political support in the next elections for those political groups 
who have aligned themselves with the pension changes.  As for the 
constitutional amendments on the people's right to dismiss the 
Saeima, other legislative initiatives and proposals may follow.  For 
instance, President Zatlers has voiced that he could also initiate 
constitutional amendments regarding Saeima dismissal procedures.