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Viewing cable 08HANOI846, GAS PRICE INCREASE FUELS INFLATION, UNHAPPINESS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08HANOI846 2008-07-22 08:52 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Hanoi
VZCZCXRO3021
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH RUEHPB
DE RUEHHI #0846 2040852
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 220852Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8162
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 4931
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS HANOI 000846 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
SINGAPORE FOR TREASURY 
TREASURY FOR SCHUN 
USTR FOR DBISBEE 
STATE FOR EEB/IFD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN EAID ECON ETRD VM
SUBJECT: GAS PRICE INCREASE FUELS INFLATION, UNHAPPINESS 
 
1.  (U) The GVN announced new fuel price increases on Monday, July 
21.  Gasoline prices went up 31 percent, diesel up 14 percent, and 
petroleum products kerosene and mazut went up 44 and 37 percent 
respectively.  The increase follows an 11 percent hike on gas and a 
36 percent increase on diesel implemented last February.  The 
government-controlled media quoted Minister of Finance Vu Van Ninh 
as saying the increase was both to discourage smuggling to countries 
where fuel is more expensive and to ease pressure on the state 
budget. 
 
2. (U) Analysts are predicting that the move will increase headline 
inflation 1 to 2 percent, although most seem to be maintaining the 
stance that overall inflation will still ease towards the end of the 
year.  Bond yields skyrocketed by up to 200 basis points following 
the announcement, but sellers were hard to come by.  On the currency 
black market, demand for dollars spiked, pushing the dollar rate 
back up to 17,500 dong from around 16,800, while the official 
exchange rate is about 16,600.  The stock market, showing newfound 
sensitivity to the price of oil, dropped to 470 after a series of 
gains in the weeks prior. 
 
3.  (SBU) Comment:  The hike came as a surprise.  The government had 
previously been saying it would not raise prices for the rest of the 
year. Moreover, many observers thought the GVN would be reluctant to 
raise prices in light of record inflation numbers.  Trying to 
maintain artificially low fuel prices in the face of spiking global 
oil prices, however, is undoubtedly an expensive subsidy difficult 
to afford at a time when the GVN is trying to rein in fiscal 
spending.  This price hike will contribute to Vietnam's already high 
inflation, but may not register in the monthly numbers until the 
August figures are released. 
 
4.  (SBU) Continued comment:  Naturally, the public is not happy 
about the blow to the wallet caused by an overnight nearly one-third 
price increase.  For months it has felt the steady pain of high 
prices for food and fuel.  Vietnam is already facing 26 percent 
y-o-y inflation.  While the GVN is surely aware of the protests in 
neighboring Burma not long ago, we expect its own calculations are 
that the Vietnamese people will bear the pain.  Rather than take to 
the streets, the motorbike-loving populace may be forced to cut down 
on nightly joy riding.  End comment. 
 
MICHALAK