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Viewing cable 08DUBLIN433, SARKOZY IN DUBLIN -- IN LISTENING MODE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08DUBLIN433 2008-07-23 13:53 2011-07-22 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Dublin
VZCZCXRO4186
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
DE RUEHDL #0433/01 2051353
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231353Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9347
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000433 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EUN FR EI
SUBJECT: SARKOZY IN DUBLIN -- IN LISTENING MODE 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert J. Faucer. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
1. Summary: On July 21, French President Nicolas Sarkozy 
spent five hours in Dublin meeting with the Irish Prime 
Minister Brian Cowen, the heads of the main opposition 
parties, and a gathering of representatives from both the 
pro- and anti-Lisbon Treaty camps.  Cowen impressed upon 
Sarkozy that it was unrealistic to think that Ireland would 
hold another referendum this year or even prior to the June 
2009 European Parliament (EP) election.  Seeming to accept 
this, Sarkozy later stated publicly that the crisis caused by 
Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty referendum will not 
be solved during the French EU Presidency.  The leaders of 
the opposition parties also stressed that a second referendum 
would be impossible before the June 2009 EP elections. 
Representatives at the "Yes/No" meeting appreciated Sarkozy's 
effort to engage all interested parties but there is still a 
pool of resentment lingering over Sarkozy's pre-visit 
comments that the Irish must hold a second referendum.  We do 
not expect the Irish to propose a solution to this crisis 
prior to the October European Council meeting.  Further, 
Sarkozy's visit is unlikely to have fully repaired the hit to 
Irish-French relations brought on by his comments that many 
here view as "meddling in Irish affairs."  End summary. 
 
Trying to Patch Things Up 
------------------------- 
 
2. (U) On July 21, during his brief visit to Dublin, Nicolas 
Sarkozy, French (and European Council) President, admitted 
that the crisis caused by Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon 
Treaty referendum will not be solved during the French EU 
Presidency.  Sarkozy angered many in the Irish political 
establishment by reportedly insisting shortly before his trip 
that the Irish government hold a second referendum on the 
Treaty.  Sarkozy denied having said another referendum was 
needed and instead maintained that he said that, "the Irish 
had to be given the opportunity to give their opinion." 
 
3. (C) The Office of the Taoiseach's (the Prime Minister) 
Lorcan Fullam, who helped arrange Sarkozy's visit, told us 
that the meeting between Cowen and Sarkozy was cordial and 
that Sarkozy "did not bring a proposal to the Taoiseach" as 
was widely reported in the press.  Instead, he was very much 
in listening mode.  Fullam said that, based on this 
discussion, Sarkozy "has a greater appreciation that a second 
referendum this year is just not going to happen."  He said 
that holding a referendum even by June 2009 is unlikely. 
Based on conversations the Irish government has had with its 
EU partners, Fullam noted "a growing recognition in EU 
capitals that a referendum, if one is held, will take place 
after the EU Parliament elections in June 2009."  Regarding 
the next meeting between Cowen and Sarkozy in September in 
Paris, Fullam said that "this was more than just an 
opportunity to touch base; it will be a way for Cowen and 
Sarkozy to shape the agenda of the October European Council 
meeting." 
 
Meeting the Opposition 
---------------------- 
 
4. (C) Sarkozy followed his meeting with Cowen by having 
short, separate meetings with the leaders of the two main 
opposition parties -- Enda Kenny, head of Fine Gael (FG), and 
Eamon Gilmore, Labor chief.  According to press reports, 
Kenny added that between now and October was a "period of 
reflection and analysis."  Sarkozy reportedly emphasized that 
next June's Europe-wide elections imposes some time pressure 
to resolve the issue.  Both told Sarkozy that a second Lisbon 
Treaty referendum before next June's elections is not 
possible.  Mark Kennelly, Kenny's chief of staff, told us 
that FG was "quite happy" with the meeting and Sarkozy's trip 
overall.  He said that FG leaders believe Fall 2009 is the 
most "realistic timetable if there were to be a second 
referendum."  Gilmore, who has led calls against a second 
referendum, has told the Embassy separately that he fully 
expects, and would support, holding a second referendum in 
2009.  He explained his public posture of opposition to a 
second referendum as "politically necessary" for the time 
being. 
 
Roundtable at the French Embassy 
-------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) After the meeting with the Irish opposition leaders, 
Sarkozy went to the French Embassy for a roundtable 
discussion with pro- and anti-Lisbon Treaty campaigners. 
According to participants in the meeting, Sarkozy reiterated 
his view that the Treaty crisis will not be solved during the 
French EU Presidency.  While a "casual and relaxed" Sarkozy 
listened intently to the speakers, he did interrupt on 
several occasions -- most notably when Libertas founder 
Declan Ganley declared the Lisbon Treaty dead.  Sinn Fein 
 
DUBLIN 00000433  002 OF 002 
 
 
President Gerry Adams followed this by stating that the 
Treaty had been rejected by the people and a new version was 
needed.  Sarkozy was quick to refute some of these -- and 
other -- allegations made by the "No" side.  Pat Smith, a 
representative of the Irish Farmers Association (IFA), told 
us bluntly that they used the occasion to call for Peter 
Mandelson to be relieved of his duties as EU Trade 
Commissioner because, as they claim, he is bringing in a bad 
WTO deal for Irish farmers. 
 
6. (C) One observer told us that almost all participants left 
the meeting satisfied that they had their say.  The one 
exception was Sinn Fein, whose special representative to the 
U.S. Rita O'Hare complained that her organization was the 
only "staunch No camp supporter there."  She maintained that 
many parties did not have enough time (each was allotted 
three minutes) to effectively communicate their message.  In 
general, she said that there is quite a bit of anger across 
the political spectrum at the way Sarkozy handled his visit. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7. (C) Clearly, there is no appetite in Irish political 
circles for another run at a referendum anytime soon.  Based 
on Sarkozy's comments focusing on the June 2009 elections and 
Fullam's comments to us, this fact was undoubtedly 
successfully impressed upon him.  Cowen and Sarkozy will meet 
in Paris in September ahead of the European Council meeting 
in October to plot strategy, but it is unlikely the Irish 
will have (or will be actively seeking) a solution in advance 
of the October meeting.  As for Irish-French relations, 
Sarkozy appeared to be in damage control mode and -- thanks 
to his "I'm-here-to-listen" attitude -- managed to leave with 
more goodwill than when he arrived. 
FOLEY