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Viewing cable 08DUBLIN363, IRISH GOVERNMENT SEEKS TIME TO DEAL WITH REJECTION

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08DUBLIN363 2008-06-17 17:36 2011-07-22 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Dublin
VZCZCXRO1552
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
DE RUEHDL #0363/01 1691736
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 171736Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9271
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000363 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI
SUBJECT: IRISH GOVERNMENT SEEKS TIME TO DEAL WITH REJECTION 
OF LISBON TREATY 
 
REF: DUBLIN 356 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert J Faucher; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
IRISH GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TIME TO DEAL WITH REJECTION OF 
LISBON TREATY 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) As the Irish Government seeks to fathom the reasons 
for the surprise defeat of the Lisbon Treaty referendum on 
June 12, the EU appears prepared to give Ireland some 
breathing space to assess the poll result, conduct domestic 
consultations, and negotiate with EU partners to find a way 
to ratify the Treaty.  Irish Foreign Minister Micheal Martin 
and other EU Foreign Ministers are expressing confidence that 
a way forward can be found.  Still, it remains to be seen how 
much time Prime Minister Cowen will need to resolve this 
issue domestically and how long the EU will be willing to 
wait, if necessary, before moving on without Ireland.  End 
summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
What Went Wrong for the Yeas? 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) In the aftermath of the June 12 defeat of the 
Lisbon Treaty referendum, the overwhelming consensus of Irish 
political leaders and analysts is that the 'Yes' campaign 
(mainly the political parties) failed to adequately explain 
why the complex, hard to understand Treaty was good for the 
Irish people (reftel).  Put on the defensive early by the 
well organized, well financed, and emotive 'No' campaign ) 
which set the agenda and framed the arguments in the debate 
) the 'Yes' campaign got into gear only four weeks before 
the polling (weeks after the 'No' campaign hit the ground 
running) and spent much of its time trying to refute 
arguments made by the 'No' side ) even though some of the 
'No' claims had little or no merit.  Consequently, the 'Yes' 
campaign took on a decidedly negative, rather than upbeat, 
tone.  Many voters were not persuaded away from the 'No' 
mantra, "If You Don't Know - Vote No." 
 
3.  (SBU) Some observers saw a measure of arrogance in the 
'Yes' campaign, noting that many Irish voters felt their 
political leaders were talking down to them in saying that 
the voters did not need to understand the Treaty, they merely 
needed to trust their leaders.  This rubbed many 
independently-minded Irish the wrong way.  The Irish streak 
of independence (nationalism according to some) in a nation 
that was a colonial subject of Great Britain until 1922, 
encouraged many Irish voters to accept the 'No' declarations 
that a vote for the Treaty was a vote for relinquishing Irish 
freedom and sovereignty.  The 'No' campaign found fertile 
ground for its claims that the Treaty would introduce 
abortion and euthanasia to Ireland, cause Irish youths to be 
conscripted into a European army, shift the power of taxation 
from Dublin to Brussels, result in Ireland losing its 
European Commissioner, harm the farmers, and the like. 
 
4.  (U) A European Commission survey of 2,000 voters 
immediately following the June 12 referendum (reported in the 
Irish Independent newspaper on June 17) found that nearly 
three-quarters of the people who voted 'No' believed that the 
Treaty could be easily renegotiated.  It also confirmed that 
a majority of people who did not understand the Treaty voted 
'No.'  Other significant findings were that: young people 
voted 'No' by a two to one margin; a majority of women voted 
'No;' and the huge influx of immigrants into Ireland (mostly 
from other EU countries) is producing unease among the 
indigenous Irish, which prompted some to vote 'No.'  (Note: 
Since 2000, the percentage of the Irish population that is 
foreign-born has soared from nearly zero to somewhere between 
10 and 12 percent.  End note.) 
 
--------------------------------- 
Libertas - A New Political Force? 
--------------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) It is significant to note that there was a large 
rise in the number of 'No' votes from around a half million 
in the Nice referendums in 2002 to 860,000 in the Lisbon 
referendum.  Supporters of Sinn Fein, the pro-life movement, 
and extreme left wing parties were joined by a new force in 
Irish politics - Libertas.  Libertas is led by Declan Ganley, 
Chairman of Rivada Networks, a U.S. defense contractor 
specializing in military telecom systems.  Notwithstanding 
question marks about its funding and motivation, Libertas 
brought business respectability, good private sector 
management, and a slick campaign to the 'No' side.  More 
 
DUBLIN 00000363  002 OF 002 
 
 
importantly, Libertas brought a war chest of 1.5 million euro 
) more money than available to the main political parties 
who led the 'Yes' campaign.  Most political analysts believe 
that the impact of Libertas tipped the balance in favor of 
the 'No' vote.  (Comment:  Libertas appears to have filled 
the vacuum among middle class, business-oriented, 
conservative voters created by the demise of the Progressive 
Democrats party, which was virtually non-existent during the 
referendum campaign.  End comment.) 
 
---------------- 
The Way Forward? 
---------------- 
 
6. (U) As Foreign Minister Micheal Martin arrived in 
Luxembourg ahead of the June 16-17 General Affairs and 
External Relations Council (GAERC), he stated that the next 
step should be a "comprehensive analysis" of the Irish vote, 
saying it was too early to offer solutions.  France and 
Germany have already signaled they do not want to let the 
Treaty die.  With 18 countries having already ratified the 
Treaty, pressure is on for all member states to declare their 
views.  UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband called for calm 
deliberation.  The EU's High Representative, Javier Solana, 
expressed confidence that the EU and Ireland would solve the 
problem. 
 
7.  (SBU) On June 16, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander 
Stubb, in an interview with the Finish press, expressed what 
seems to be the prevailing view of the EU Foreign Ministers 
at the GAERC: that the EU will maintain solidarity among the 
27 member states (recognizing that Ireland is committed to 
the EU); that the Irish vote will be respected; that there 
will be no quick fix to the problem; but that the 
ratification process will move ahead. 
 
8.  (C) Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) European 
Correspondent Pat Kelly, who accompanied Martin to the GAERC 
meeting in Luxembourg, told POLOFF on June 17 that Martin had 
been greeted cordially by the other 26 EU Foreign Ministers, 
who, Kelly said, expressed "a great deal of understanding" as 
well as an appreciation that time would be needed before a 
way forward could emerge.  Kelly revealed that Martin left 
the meeting feeling "positive." 
 
9.  (C) Frank Smith, Deputy Director General, European Union 
Division, DFA, echoed Kelly's views, saying that Martin was 
pleased with the understanding and support he received from 
his fellow Foreign Ministers.  Smith said Martin's address to 
the GAERC stressed that the Irish vote reflected the will of 
the people and had to be respected; and that Ireland needed 
time to effectively assess the poll result, conduct domestic 
consultations, and negotiate with EU partners.  Martin 
expressed confidence, according to Smith, that a way forward 
would be found.  Smith predicted that this approach would 
also be taken by Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Brian Cowen at 
the European Council meeting on June 19. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) It appears that the EU is prepared to allow Ireland 
some breathing space to chart a way forward.  There will be 
no rush to prescribe solutions.  For its part, the Irish 
Government will do everything possible to avoid the scenario 
of a "two-speed Europe," where the other 26 countries agree 
to proceed with a new Treaty that excludes Ireland.  Still, 
it remains to be seen how much time Prime Minister Cowen will 
need to resolve this issue domestically and how long the EU 
will be willing to wait, if necessary, before moving on 
without Ireland. 
FOLEY