Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 97115 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ETRD EAGR ETTC EAID ECON EFIN ECIN EINV ELAB EAIR ENRG EPET EWWT ECPS EIND EMIN ELTN EC ETMIN EUC EZ ET ELECTIONS ENVR EU EUN EG EINT ER ECONOMICS ES EMS ENIV EEB EN ECE ECOSOC EK ENVIRONMENT EFIS EI EWT ENGRD ECPSN EXIM EIAD ERIN ECPC EDEV ENGY ECTRD EPA ESTH ECCT EINVECON ENGR ERTD EUR EAP EWWC ELTD EL EXIMOPIC EXTERNAL ETRDEC ESCAP ECO EGAD ELNT ECONOMIC ENV ETRN EIAR EUMEM ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID EREL ECOM ECONETRDEAGRJA ETCC ETRG ECONOMY EMED ETR ENERG EITC EFINOECD EURM EENG ERA EXPORT ENRD ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EGEN EBRD EVIN ETRAD ECOWAS EFTA ECONETRDBESPAR EGOVSY EPIN EID ECONENRG EDRC ESENV ETT EB ENER ELTNSNAR ECHEVARRIA ETRC EPIT EDUC ESA EFI ENRGY ESCI EE EAIDXMXAXBXFFR EETC ECIP EIAID EIVN EBEXP ESTN EING EGOV ETRA EPETEIND ELAN ETRDGK EAIDRW ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ENVI ELN EAG EPCS EPRT EPTED ETRB EUM EAIDS EFIC EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM EAIDAR ESF EIDN ELAM EDU EV EAIDAF ECN EDA EXBS EINTECPS ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EPREL EAC EINVEFIN ETA EAGER EINDIR ECA ECLAC ELAP EITI EUCOM ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID EARG ELDIN EINVKSCA ENNP EFINECONCS EFINTS ECCP ETC EAIRASECCASCID EINN ETRP EAIDNI EFQ ECOQKPKO EGPHUM EBUD ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ENERGY ELB EINDETRD EMI ECONEFIN EIB EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EIN EFIM ETIO ELAINE EMN EATO EWTR EIPR EINVETC ETTD ETDR EIQ ECONCS EPPD ENRGIZ EISL ESPINOSA ELEC EAIG ESLCO EUREM ENTG ERD EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EFND EPECO EAIRECONRP ERGR ETRDPGOV ECPN ENRGMO EPWR EET EAIS EAGRE EDUARDO EAGRRP EAIDPHUMPRELUG EICN ECONQH EVN EGHG ELBR EINF EAIDHO EENV ETEX ERNG ED
KMDR KPAO KPKO KJUS KCRM KGHG KFRD KWMN KDEM KTFN KHIV KGIC KIDE KSCA KNNP KHUM KIPR KSUM KISL KIRF KCOR KRCM KPAL KWBG KN KS KOMC KSEP KFLU KPWR KTIA KSEO KMPI KHLS KICC KSTH KMCA KVPR KPRM KE KU KZ KFLO KSAF KTIP KTEX KBCT KOCI KOLY KOR KAWC KACT KUNR KTDB KSTC KLIG KSKN KNN KCFE KCIP KGHA KHDP KPOW KUNC KDRL KV KPREL KCRS KPOL KRVC KRIM KGIT KWIR KT KIRC KOMO KRFD KUWAIT KG KFIN KSCI KTFIN KFTN KGOV KPRV KSAC KGIV KCRIM KPIR KSOC KBIO KW KGLB KMWN KPO KFSC KSEAO KSTCPL KSI KPRP KREC KFPC KUNH KCSA KMRS KNDP KR KICCPUR KPPAO KCSY KTBT KCIS KNEP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNNB KGCC KINR KPOP KMFO KENV KNAR KVIR KDRG KDMR KFCE KNAO KDEN KGCN KICA KIMMITT KMCC KLFU KMSG KSEC KUM KCUL KMNP KSMT KCOM KOMCSG KSPR KPMI KRAD KIND KCRP KAUST KWAWC KTER KCHG KRDP KPAS KITA KTSC KPAOPREL KWGB KIRP KJUST KMIG KLAB KTFR KSEI KSTT KAPO KSTS KLSO KWNN KPOA KHSA KNPP KPAONZ KBTS KWWW KY KJRE KPAOKMDRKE KCRCM KSCS KWMNCI KESO KWUN KPLS KIIP KEDEM KPAOY KRIF KGICKS KREF KTRD KFRDSOCIRO KTAO KJU KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KEN KO KNEI KEMR KKIV KEAI KWAC KRCIM KWCI KFIU KWIC KCORR KOMS KNNO KPAI KBWG KTTB KTBD KTIALG KILS KFEM KTDM KESS KNUC KPA KOMCCO KCEM KRCS KWBGSY KNPPIS KNNPMNUC KWN KERG KLTN KALM KCCP KSUMPHUM KREL KGH KLIP KTLA KAWK KWMM KVRP KVRC KAID KSLG KDEMK KX KIF KNPR KCFC KFTFN KTFM KPDD KCERS KMOC KDEMAF KMEPI KEMS KDRM KEPREL KBTR KEDU KNP KIRL KNNR KMPT KISLPINR KTPN KA KJUSTH KPIN KDEV KTDD KAKA KFRP KWNM KTSD KINL KJUSKUNR KWWMN KECF KWBC KPRO KVBL KOM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KEDM KFLD KLPM KRGY KNNF KICR KIFR KM KWMNCS KAWS KLAP KPAK KDDG KCGC KID KNSD KMPF KPFO KDP KCMR KRMS KNPT KNNNP KTIAPARM KDTB KNUP KPGOV KNAP KNNC KUK KSRE KREISLER KIVP KQ KTIAEUN KPALAOIS KRM KISLAO KWM KFLOA
PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 08BOGOTA2024, MARULANDA'S DEATH SPARKS SPECULATION ON FARC'S

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08BOGOTA2024.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BOGOTA2024 2008-06-03 19:21 2010-12-08 21:30 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0003
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #2024/01 1551921
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 031921Z JUN 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3044
INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0498
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN 9467
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 6233
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA PRIORITY 1810
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 6903
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 4446
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 002024

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/AND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2018
TAGS: CO PTER PGOV PREL SNAR
SUBJECT: MARULANDA'S DEATH SPARKS SPECULATION ON FARC'S
FUTURE

Classified By: Political Counselor John S. Creamer
Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)

-------
Summary
-------

1. (C) Most GOC officials and outside analysts believe the
death of FARC founder Pedro Marin (Manuel Marulanda) will
have little impact on the FARC's approach to a humanitarian
hostage exchange or broader peace talks with the GOC. Peace
Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo called new FARC leader
Guillermo Saenz (Alfonso Cano) a "Leninist ideologue" who
will need to consolidate his leadership position. Polo
Democratico official Daniel Garcia Pena agreed Cano is
committed to "all forms of struggle," and predicted he will
try to strengthen ties with Venezuela. Restrepo and other
observers speculated that Marulanda's death will accelerate
desertions and fragmentation within the FARC, creating
opportunities for the GOC to pursue deals with individual
commanders. End Summary

--------------------------------------------- ---
Marulanda's Death: Improved Prospects for Peace?
--------------------------------------------- ---

2. (U) The death of FARC founder and long-time leader Pedro
Marin (Manuel Marulanda) has triggered speculation about what
this means for the FARC's approach to a humanitarian hostage
exchange, prospects for broader GOC-FARC peace talks, and the
FARC's military strategy. In the immediate aftermath of
Marulanda's death, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner
said Marulanda's death "raises great hope" and urged new FARC
leader Alfonso Cano to release the FARC's civilian hostages.
Similarly, Yolanda Pulecio, mother of FARC hostage and former
presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt, called Cano a
"cultured and progressive man" and said any FARC move to
release the hostages would be well-received by the
international community.

--------------------
Or More of the Same?
--------------------

3. (C) Still, in its May 27 communique acknowledging
Marulanda's death--and the appointment of Guillero Saenz
(Alfonso Cano) as his successor--the FARC ratified its
proposal conditioning humanitarian exchange talks on the
GOC's demilitarization of Florida and Pradera municipalities.
GOC Peace Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo told us May 30
that Marulanda's death will not lead to any progress on a
humanitarian accord or peace process in the near future.
Cano is a "Leninist ideologue" who founded the Colombian
Clandestine Communist Party and the Bolivarian Movement. In
the short-term, he will need to consolidate his position and
will not be able to show any sign of weakness. In fact,
Restrepo said Cano may push for heightened military action to
show he is in charge.

4. (C) Restrepo downplayed the notion of a rivalry between
Cano and FARC military leader Jorge Briceno (Mono Jojoy),
noting that Cano's political hard-line complements Jojoy's
military toughness. It would have been more difficult for
Cano to assert control if Raul Reyes, who saw himself as the
FARC's political leader, were still alive. Restrepo
dismissed the other Secretariat members as lacking stature,
saying the Secretariat is effectively a Cano-Jojoy
organization. New Secretariat member Jorge Torres (Pablo
Catatumbo) functions as Cano's secretary; Milton Toncel
(Joaquin Gomez) will follow Jojoy's line; Rodrigo Londono
(Timochenko) is an "errand boy" who does not command any
troops and lives in Venezuela; and Luciano Marin (Ivan
Marquez) also spends most of his time in Venezuela.

5. (C) Former Peace Commissioner for Presidents Barco and
Gaviria Carlos Eduardo Jaramillo told us the FARC identified
Cano as Marulanda's eventual successor near the end of the
Caguan process. He agreed with Restrepo's assessment that
the FARC would not change its strategy in the short-term,
noting that "the Secretariat functions as a collegial
decision-making body." Marulanda's death signals a

generational shift in the FARC leadership, with power passing
from the peasant founders to more urban, Communist Party
educated leaders who were active in protest movements in the
1970s, but the group's commitment to armed confrontation is
unlikely to change.

6. (C) Polo Secretary General and former President Samper
peace advisor Daniel Garcia Pena also predicted Marulanda's
death will mean little to the FARC's day-to-day management of
the war. Marulanda was a FARC icon and unifying figure, but
the transition to Cano--who was Marulanda's choice--was
relatively smooth. The murder of Secretariat member Manuel
Munoz (Ivan Rios) by his own men and the desertion of Nelly
Avila (Karina) were bigger blows to the group because of what
they say about FARC morale. Garcia Pena views Cano as an
intransigent ideologue who is less pragmatic than Jojoy and
is committed to "all forms of struggle." He added that the
FARC has yet to name a replacement for Raul Reyes as head of
the FARC's International Relations Department, making any
change in position on a humanitarian accord more difficult.
Restrepo noted that the disruption of the FARC's
international network after Reyes' death will also complicate
any FARC shifts on an exchange.

----------------
FARC-Chavez Ties
----------------

7. (C) Garcia Pena expects Cano to try to strengthen the
FARC's political ties with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez,
since Chavez provided the group important "political oxygen"
before the Colombian military attack on the Reyes camp in
Ecuador. Chavez will need to be careful about supporting the
FARC given the Reyes computer files, but Chavez and important
sectors of his movement continue to see the FARC as a
potential military ally in the event of a U.S. invasion.
Hence, Chavez will continue to look for ways to help the FARC
and, to a lesser extent, the ELN. Restrepo also believes
Chavez will continue to help the group, but said Marulanda's
historical role held a special attraction for Chavez. With
his passing, Chavez would no longer have an interlocutor of
equal stature within the FARC.

--------------------------------------------- ---------
Prospects for Increased FARC Desertions, Fragmentation
--------------------------------------------- ---------

8. (C) Prior to Marulanda's death, local ICRC delegate
Barbara Hintermann said the increasing Colombian military
pressure on the FARC was disrupting Secretariat
command-and-control over FARC fronts, giving greater autonomy
to individual FARC commanders and leading to more desertions.
She speculated that the death of FARC Secretariat members
Raul Reyes and Ivan Rios would accelerate FARC desertions,
including some senior FARC officials. Presidential advisor
Jose Obdulio Gaviria told us Marulanda's demise completes the
Secretariat's disintegration. The Secretariat's members
cannot communicate or take decisions. Only Cano and Jojoy
give it a sense of national structure and international
projection. He said the GOC needs to try to negotiate a
partial peace deal with Jojoy--who he considers more
reasonable than Cano--or to seek deals with individual front
commanders.

9. (C) Restrepo told us that on May 22, he spoke with FARC
commander Jose Cabrera (Fabian Ramirez) who questioned
Restrepo about the legal benefits he might receive if he were
to turn himself in with Ingrid Betancourt. Ramirez said he
did not have physical control of Ingrid, but implied he might
be able to negotiate her release as well. Restrepo noted
that Ramirez' profile--substantial narcotics wealth managed
by his family, unhappiness with his superiors, and concern
about the FARC's future--applies to other FARC commanders
such as 1st Front commander Gerardo Aguilar (Cesar). He
promised to keep us posted as the Ramirez situation evolves.

--------------------------------------------- -------
The ELN Path: Internal Division and Military Decline
--------------------------------------------- -------

10. Former Foreign Minister and current Cambio editor

Rodrigo Pardo speculated that Marulanda's passing opens the
prospect that the FARC will end up like the ELN after the
death of "Father Manuel Perez" in 1998. Without its
long-time leader, the ELN has entered a steady process of
decline, characterized by internal divisions, diminishing
military capacity, and erratic participation in peace
processes with the GOC.

BROWNFIELD