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Viewing cable 08RANGOON323, BURMA: CYCLONE DRIVING UP FOOD AND FUEL PRICES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08RANGOON323 2008-05-06 09:25 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Rangoon
VZCZCXRO6168
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH RUEHTRO
DE RUEHGO #0323/01 1270925
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 060925Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7489
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1846
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1124
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 4854
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4671
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8212
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5774
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1448
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1550
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0306
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3642
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1526
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000323 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP - JANET SPECK 
BANGKOK FOR USDA/FAS, ECON OFFICE, USAID 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USAID - CHERYL JENNINGS 
PACOM FOR FPA 
TREASURY FOR OASIA:SCHUN 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: EAGR EAID ETRD ECON PGOV PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: CYCLONE DRIVING UP FOOD AND FUEL PRICES 
 
Ref: Rangoon 310 
 
RANGOON 00000323  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  Cyclone Nargis devastated parts of southern 
Burma, including Rangoon and the Irrawaddy Delta.  Trees and power 
lines are down, many homes are inhabitable, potable water supplies 
have been compromised or destroyed, and roads are blocked with 
debris.  In the aftermath of the storm, prices of food and fuel 
skyrocketed due to increased demand and limited supply.  While 
government prices of gasoline and diesel remain the same at 2,500 
kyats ($2.30) and 3,000 kyats ($2.70) a gallon respectively, black 
market prices have increased by more than 50 percent.  Food supplies 
in Rangoon are limited, and prices of edible oil and rice increased 
by 45 percent and 25 percent respectively.  Market stalls and 
supermarket shelves are quickly becoming bare, as the Burmese run 
out to purchase as many commodities as they can afford.  As long as 
roads into Rangoon remain blocked and black market fuel prices 
continue to skyrocket, prices of food and commodities will continue 
to rise, leaving many Burmese in Rangoon unable to put food on the 
table.  End Summary. 
 
Soaring Prices and Runs on Stores 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU)  Cyclone Nargis hit Burma on May 2 and 3, severely 
affecting Irrawaddy Division, Rangoon Division, Bago Division, Mon 
State, and Karen State.  With 120 mile per hour winds when it 
reached Rangoon, Cyclone Nargis leveled many villages and homes, 
tore down trees and power lines, and devastated potable water 
supplies (Reftel).  Rangoon was hit hard; because of the downed 
power lines, many now depend on generators for electricity.  Prices 
of fuel, including gasoline and diesel, jumped dramatically in the 
wake of the storm.  The GOB sets prices for gasoline and diesel at 
2,500 kyats ($2.30) and 3,000 kyats ($2.70) a gallon respectively, 
but limits the amount that one can purchase at one time.  As result, 
there is a thriving black market for fuel.  Before the storm, the 
black market price of gasoline was 5,200 kyat ($4.70) a gallon and 
diesel cost 5,800 kyat ($5.20) a gallon.  As of May 4, gasoline 
prices jumped 54 percent to 8,000 kyat ($7.20) per gallon, while 
diesel prices increased 72 percent to 10,000 kyat ($9.00) a gallon. 
The fuel price increases immediately led to a dramatic jump in 
transportation prices, with the cost of taxis, buses, and trucks for 
shipment increasing up to 400 percent.  Since many of the taxis and 
buses are fueled by compressed natural gas, the supply of which has 
been cut off, there are significantly fewer on the roads, which 
further drives up prices. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Many Burmese were unaware of Cyclone Nargis before it 
hit, and thus were unprepared for the storm.  Others believed that 
the cyclone would just be a regular rainstorm and did not stock up 
on basic commodities.  Immediately after the storm, we observed many 
people, both Burmese and foreigners, rushing to the markets and 
supermarkets to purchase large supplies of food, particularly rice, 
fruits, vegetables and cooking oil, and drinking water.  Vendors 
took advantage of the high demand, dramatically raising prices of 
basic food supplies.  According to Win Win Tint, General Manager of 
City Mart, the most in-demand items are rice, cooking oil, and 
potable water.  Prices of these goods increased dramatically: 
ehmata rice (25 percent broken rice, medium quality eaten by most 
Burmese) prices rose from 24,000 kyat ($21.80) per bag (69 lbs) to 
30,000 kyat ($27.27) per bag, soybean oil prices increased by 45 
percent, from 4,500 kyat ($4.00)/2 liters to 6,500 kyat ($5.90)/2 
liters, and drinking water prices increased 233 percent, from 300 
kyat ($0.27)/liter to 1,000 kyat ($0.90)/liter.  By May 5, many 
stores' and market's shelves were bare, and vendors were unable to 
predict when they could replenish their stocks, as the blocked roads 
limited the transportation of goods throughout the city. 
 
RANGOON 00000323  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
           Selected Commodity Prices, Rangoon 
                   As of May 5, 2008 
                        In Kyat 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Good          Pre-Storm      Post-Storm     Percent 
              Price          Price          Increase 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Ehmata Rice   24000/bag      30000/bag         25 
Peanut Oil     4500/viss      5000/viss        11 
Soybean Oil    4500/viss      6500/viss        45 
Palm Oil       3200/viss      4000/viss        25 
Pork           6000/viss      8000/viss        33 
Chicken        6000/viss      8000/viss        33 
Duck Eggs       100/each       250/each       150 
Chicken Eggs    120/each       300/each       150 
Purified Water  300/liter     1000/liter      233 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
*1 viss=3.6 lbs or 1 viss=2 liters 
 
4.  (SBU)  While many vendors admit that food prices are unusually 
high because of the storm, they predict that prices will fall (but 
not return to normal) in several days.  Once the roads are open, 
people will be able to deliver food to Rangoon, increasing the 
supply of basic food commodities on the market and thus marginally 
lowering prices.  Additionally, Chris Kaye of World Food Program 
told us that the Rangoon Regional Commander, who is in charge of 
monitoring food prices in Rangoon Division, is closely monitoring 
the situation and will take steps to keep prices from skyrocketing 
out of control.  However, as long as fuel prices and transportation 
costs remain high, we expect that the prices of food and 
agricultural commodities will remain higher than pre-storm levels. 
 
5. (SBU)  As supermarkets in Rangoon run out of basic supplies or 
face the lack of electricity, they are closing their doors.  City 
Mart, which has eight stores throughout the city, only opened five 
of them on May 5.  The Dagon Center, one of Rangoon's largest 
shopping malls, was also closed.  The supermarket in Sein Gyi Ha 
Mall in downtown Rangoon was open, despite lack of electricity.  The 
manager told us that the supermarket was trying to sell its 
perishable goods, such as meat and dairy products, before they went 
bad, although it did not lower prices on these products.  He 
admitted that if he could not sell them, he would likely put them 
back in the refrigerator (which is not operational due to lack of 
electricity) and would try to sell them tomorrow.  As the power 
shortage continues and there is lack of potable water, the quality 
of the food sold in Rangoon and other parts of Burma will diminish, 
which could lead to disease and other ailments when people consume 
them. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (SBU)  Much of Rangoon's food supply is brought in from other 
areas of Burma, and rising fuel and transportation costs will 
continue to affect prices.  As long as the roads into Rangoon remain 
blocked by fallen trees or power lines, food supplies will remain 
limited, shelves will be bare, and prices will remain high.  So far, 
the Burmese are dealing with the price gouging, and we have seen 
limited looting around the city.  However, the Burmese are angry 
that the regime is not doing more to help them.  The longer it takes 
for the government to repair the power lines, remove the trees, and 
restore supply lines, the more likely increasing desperation could 
result in violence, looting, and political unrest. 
 
 
RANGOON 00000323  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
VILLAROSA