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Viewing cable 08NAIROBI1320, PM ODINGA RECEIVES HERO'S WELCOME IN HOMECOMING - BUT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08NAIROBI1320 2008-05-23 05:31 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Nairobi
VZCZCXRO1498
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHNR #1320/01 1440531
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230531Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5882
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0091
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 5980
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 5274
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2817
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 2052
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2822
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2745
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001320 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM KE
SUBJECT:  PM ODINGA RECEIVES HERO'S WELCOME IN HOMECOMING - BUT 
SUPPORTERS VOICE DOUBTS ABOUT GRAND COALITION 
 
-------- 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
1. Prime Minister Raila Odinga received a hero's welcome from a 
crowd of over 300,000 at a home coming in his native Nyanza 
province. American flags were spotted amidst the excited crowd. He 
had a difficult time convincing his supporters that his Orange 
Democratic Movement (ODM) party was an equal partner in the new 
government, however. While Raila urged his supporters to forgive 
past injustices and move on, they in turn implored him to settle for 
nothing less than the presidency, as the tribes of western Kenya had 
yet to reach "The Promised Land" of unfettered national rule. The 
ODM and the Party of National Unity (PNU) will need to work harder 
to ensure that Kenya's political future cannot rely on a "winner- 
takes-all system".   End summary. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Welcome Home: Hero, Leader and Brave Son 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2. On May 10, more than 300,000 Kenyans congregated at the Kisumu 
Municipal Stadium to welcome their native son who arrived in a Kenya 
Air Force plane (previously preserved for the exclusive use of the 
President of Kenya). Jubilant residents lined up on the streets to 
witness the VIP convoy led by an elaborate police escort to a 
meeting arranged at the Tom Mboya Labor College, where the Prime 
Minister was expected to have a town hall meeting with local 
business, civic, grassroots party and religious leadership. This 
event did not fully materialize apart from the hurried 
introductions, because of the impatience of the huge gathering 
awaiting Raila at the stadium. 
 
3. On May 11, Raila attended a memorial service for his father, 
Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, considered the doyen of opposition politics 
in Kenya, at the family home in Nyamira, about 50 miles west of 
Kisumu. (Note: Raila's older brother, Bondo MP Oburu Odinga, has 
inherited the family homestead. End note.) Later in the day, another 
huge rally was held at the neighboring Bondo Teachers' Training 
Centre where religious and tribal elders from the ethnic Luo, the 
Kalenjin, Kisii, Maasai, and Luyia communities attended. Civic and 
parliamentary representatives, a good number of whom are now in the 
coalition cabinet, were introduced to the crowd. 
 
----------------------------- 
Raila Defends Grand Coalition 
----------------------------- 
 
4. At the Kisumu rally, Raila explained to his supporters that he 
entered into a coalition agreement with President Kibaki's PNU to 
avert the destruction of the country. Telling his audience that it 
is better to live to fight another day, Raila discouraged ODM MPs 
seeking to form an opposition, saying that would weaken his position 
in the coalition. Raila promised that the new coalition government 
would deliver on constitutional and economic reform. He explained 
that a number of ODM-led ministries (Roads, Health, Water, 
Communication, Industrialization) would be critical in bringing 
development to traditionally neglected regions. 
 
5. In a public gesture of inter-ethnic cooperation Raila officiated 
at the launch of Equity Bank branch office at Bondo. The bank is 
expected to dispense credit to empower impoverished and neglected 
women and youth groups in the area, due to their association with 
what successive governments have considered to be an "opposition 
zone". (Note: This bank is owned by prominent ethnic Kikuyu 
businessmen. This is significant given the mistrust between Raila's 
ethnic Luo and Kibaki's ethnic Kikuyu communities. End Note.) 
 
6. Other leaders reinforced Odinga's line that the power-sharing 
deal is real, reform will happen, but hard work lies ahead. Lands 
Minister James Orengo noted that Raila now has real power, noting 
that the Kenya police (notorious for arbitrarily arresting him on 
numerous occasions), were now serving and saluting Raila and 
according him VIP treatment. Agriculture Minister William Ruto 
acknowledged to the restive crowd that the prices of food commodity 
prices were high requested one year to sort the mess out. When 
Ruto's appeal for patience fell flat, he retreated to defensive 
rhetoric, demanding the police release from custody the suspects who 
were arrested for allegedly causing death and violence in the 
post-election period. Ruto argued that if it was not for the gallant 
efforts of the arrested youth, ODM could not be boasting of power 
sharing now. Other speakers at the event included several cabinet 
 
NAIROBI 00001320  002 OF 002 
 
 
ministers. National Assembly Speaker Peter Marende who avoided hot 
political issues, promised the speedy enactment of a new 
constitution, as promised by ODM in the run up to the 2007 
Election. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Other Leaders Play To Crowd's Fears 
----------------------------------- 
 
7. Still the prevailing mood of the weekend was one of mistrust, and 
other ODM leaders voiced their resentment over the coalition 
agreement. Elizabeth Ongoro, a Luo MP from Nairobi, described 
PNU-ODM power sharing deal using a Luo parable of a snake entering a 
milk gourd just as the mother is preparing to feed the milk to her 
children. Breaking the container, she said, would waste badly needed 
food. Another MP described the arrangement as being forced to share 
a goat dinner with the thief who stole it. (Note: The theme of the 
perceived PNU theft of the election recurred through the weekend. 
End Note.) 
 
---------------------------- 
Kudos To USA and Kofi Annan; 
Two Thumbs Down For Uganda 
---------------------------- 
 
8. At Bondo, Raila's birth place, support for the U.S. role in the 
recent election crisis was on display literally. At the dais were 
three five-foot portraits of Kofi Annan, President George Bush and 
Odinga, a tribute that POL FSN was told was to honor the 
unforgettable support the United States Embassy and Kofi Annan gave 
to Raila and the reconciliation process. 
 
9. The role of other outside players, however, was not viewed as 
favorably. The Bondo crowd cut short Tanzanian Minister Magufuli's 
speech calling for strengthening of the East African Federation when 
he suggested greater cooperation with Uganda. (Note: Ugandan 
President Museveni is viewed with mistrust and suspicion by ODM 
supporters, particularly after his warm welcome of Kibaki's victory 
at the height of the post election crisis. Septel. End Note.) 
 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
10. Raila's home coming showed that he enjoys great popularity, but 
many Western Kenyans still harbor anger over the disputed election 
and place little faith in the prospects of a successful coalition 
government. The notable exception to this sentiment appears to lie 
with the (predominantly South Asian), business community that has a 
large financial stake in Kisumu and its environs. Rebuilding Western 
Kenya's economy will require good relations with the coalition 
government, and powerful businessmen were visibly networking with 
government officials all the weekend. 
 
11. To win over ODM grassroots supporters, however, Raila and his 
PNU coalition partners will have to prove ODM fear mongers wrong by 
demonstrating that the power sharing arrangement will bring positive 
change for ordinary Kenyans.