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Viewing cable 08MEXICO1461, PRD INTERNAL ELECTIONS: WINNER DECLARED -- BUT IT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08MEXICO1461 2008-05-14 20:47 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO4555
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #1461/01 1352047
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 142047Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1865
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001461 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: PRD INTERNAL ELECTIONS: WINNER DECLARED -- BUT IT 
AIN'T OVER YET 
 
 1. (SBU) Summary.  Two months after its internal elections, 
Mexico's Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) is still 
struggling to identify who won.  On April 30, the Party's 
National Guarantees and Oversight Commission declared 
Alejandro Encinas, the leader of the Party's United Left 
Faction (ULF), the winner.  Ten days later, though, PRD's 
Technical Electoral Committee reversed the decision and 
declared Jesus Ortega, the leader of the Party's New Left 
(NLF) faction, the winner.  Not surprisingly, Encinas is 
challenging this decision.  Confidence on both sides in any 
declared results is practically non-existent.  While the 
party should likely survive this internecine dispute, it has 
damaged party morale and undermined its image nationwide. 
Best prospects for a resolution likely lie in some kind of 
power sharing arrangement.  End Summary. 
 
 
Taking Turns as President-Elect 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The two main candidates to the PRD's presidency, 
Alejandro Encinas and Jesus Ortega, respectively representing 
the party's radical and moderate wings, continue to dispute 
the results of elections held almost two months ago.  On 
April 30, Encinas was declared the victor by the Party's 
National Guarantees and Oversight Commission based on a count 
of only 84 percent of the ballots.  When Ortega challenged 
this outcome before Mexico's national electoral tribunal, 
that body ordered the PRD to count 100% of the votes.  After 
a full count, on May 10, the PRD's Technical Electoral 
Committee revered its earlier decision and declared Jesus 
Ortega the winner by 16,214-votes over Encinas.  On May 11, 
the PRD's newly installed National Executive Committee (CEN) 
confirmed this result. 
 
 
Encinas' Turn to Challenge the Results 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3.(SBU) Encinas wasted no time in calling foul comparing the 
process to the 2006 hotly contested 2006 presidential 
election, which many in the PRD consider to have been rigged. 
Encinas' campaign secretaries Gerardo Norona and Juan Manuel 
Avila also cited irregularities in key Ortega states and 
challenged the stewardship of the process by interim party 
president Guadelupe Acosta.  Encinas' campaign is appealing 
the outcome back to PRD's Oversight Committee, as prescribed 
by party statues. 
 
4.(SBU) PRD insider Mary Carmen Soria believes Encinas is 
contesting the result internally because he lacks iron-clad 
proof that will stand up in the federal electoral tribunal -- 
and because the oversight committee is composed of Encinas 
supporters who might tip the scales back in his favor yet 
again.  Distrust of the national tribunal is widespread among 
most PRD members, who bitterly resent that body for 
validating the results of the 2006 vote.  Encinas-insider 
Raul de la Paz maintained that former presidential candidate 
and Encinas, main backer Lopez Obredor's quick endorsement 
of an Oversight Commission ruling is designed to win over a 
broad range of PRD members. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.(SBU) After two months of mutual recriminations and 
competing charges of corruption, it is unlikely either side 
will accept results suggesting the other side has won.  While 
the belabored process has damaged party morale and its 
national standing, rumors of an impending split within party 
ranks still appear premature.  Logistically, AMLO would be 
hard-pressed to form a new party and win a significant 
numbers of seats in the 2009 mid-term elections. 
 
6.(SBU) While Ortega and Encinas show little sign of 
relenting at the present moment, some form of negotiated 
power-sharing arrangement between the two sides appears to 
offer the best prospect for a way out of this situation. The 
next PRD Congress, for example, in June may establish new 
rules for the selection of a permanent President and General 
Secretary. According to party insiders, the new PRD Congress 
 
MEXICO 00001461  002 OF 002 
 
 
may even consider changing the party's structure, creating an 
internal "frente" or block of leaders representing party 
factions.  Each representative would carry voting weight 
according to the faction-size he/she represented.  The devil 
will be in the details, however.  Encinas-ally Garcia Ochoa 
indicated his faction might try to incorporate other leftist 
political parties, re-fashioning the party to give more 
weight to radical elements.  Both Garcia Ochoa and Iran 
Moreno (an Ortega allay), however, said that despite 
differences over what the Frente would look like, Moreno said 
the Frente idea was gaining traction within the party. 
 
7.(SBU) In the meantime, the barbs continue to fly exposing 
the party's vulnerabilities and costing the party credibility 
with the broader Mexican politic. 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
GARZA