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Viewing cable 08HANOI610, VIETNAM ECON HIGHLIGHTS: LIFTING CAPS ON RICE EXPORTS AND

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08HANOI610 2008-05-23 07:32 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Hanoi
VZCZCXRO1572
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH RUEHPB
DE RUEHHI #0610/01 1440732
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230732Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7883
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 4763
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000610 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
SINGAPORE FOR TREASURY 
TREASURY FOR SCHUN 
USTR FOR DBISBEE 
STATE FOR EEB/TPP 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN EAID ECPS ECON EAGR ETRD VM
SUBJECT:  VIETNAM ECON HIGHLIGHTS: LIFTING CAPS ON RICE EXPORTS AND 
DEPOSIT RATES, NUCLEAR POWER PLANS 
 
REF: A) HANOI 394 ("Vietnam Cutting Rice Exports"); 
B) HANOI 498 ("Impact of Rising Food/Commodity Prices"); 
C) HANOI 297 (Vietnam Econ Highlights 3/13) 
 
HANOI 00000610  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1. (U) This cable is part of an ongoing series on developing 
economic stories in Vietnam. 
 
RICE EXPORT CAPS MAY BE LIFTED 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (U) Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) Minister Cao Duc 
Phat said that Vietnam may lift its ban on new rice export contracts 
beginning in early July, according to local press reports (REFS A 
and B).  According to Minister Phat, Vietnam has contracts to export 
2.4 million tons of rice to date, or nearly 70 percent of its 3.5 
million-ton sales target for the entire year.  He added that Vietnam 
intended to increase rice production to 22.6 million tons by 2010 
and 
to 23.8 million tons by 2020 just to meet the demands of a growing 
population, estimated to be 98.6 million people by 2020.  In 2007, 
Vietnam produced 21.5 million tons of rice and had a population of 
85 million. 
 
DONG DEPOSIT RATE CAP SCRAPPED 
------------------------------ 
 
3.  (U) The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) scrapped the 12 percent 
ceiling rate on Dong deposits on May 17, allowing banks to set their 
own rates within defined bands to help increase liquidity.  Banks 
now can fix their own rates on Dong deposits and lending, provided 
their rates are not 150 percent above a base rate to be announced 
monthly by the SBV.  Since the SBV recently introduced the 12 
percent base rate, the de facto deposit rate cap and lending rate 
cap are both currently 18 percent.  According to the SBV, the 
current 18 percent lending rate will not cause major changes to 
credit growth and money markets.  The SBV also raised the 
refinancing rate on loans to commercial banks to 13 percent, up from 
the previous rate of 7.5 percent.  The discount rate also was 
increased from 6 percent to 11 percent.  According to the SBV, this 
mechanism creates a corridor between the refinancing rate and the 
discount rate that will help regulate the interbank market rates. 
 
4.  (SBU) In a meeting last week with ConGen HCMC, a well respected 
Vietnamese ex-IMF official explained why the cap was having a 
negative impact on liquidity.  In his opinion, the GVN's interest 
rate policies were squeezing the banking system dry but failing to 
reduce the money supply.  Instead, the low (compared to inflation) 
cap on deposits drove potential depositors onto the street in search 
of a better return on their money (by purchasing gold or real 
estate, for example), thereby increasing the M1 money supply. 
Because banks didn't have money to lend (since depositors weren't 
putting money in) and because lending rates were controlled, what 
lending was taking place was largely "directed" lending to SOE's 
rather than market lending.  Among the negative consequences of this 
combination of policies was that many importers and exporters were 
left unable to secure vital short-term trade financing.  Many 
manufacturers requiring financing to purchase inputs faced a similar 
problem. 
 
GVN GOES NUCLEAR IN SEARCH OF ELECTRIC POWER 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) The GVN is moving forward with a detailed roadmap for 
development of nuclear power plants designed to generate electricity 
by 2020.  According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade's (MOIT) 
Energy Department, the National Assembly will pass a law on nuclear 
energy in early June, and the GVN will publicize the national 
nuclear energy development strategy later that month.  MOIT will be 
looking to hire foreign consultants later this year or in early 2009 
to prepare pre-feasibility studies, after which the GVN will have an 
open tender for construction contracts.  Plans are to begin 
construction of two plants in 2015.  Each plant will have a capacity 
of 2,000 megawatts.  According to MOIT officials, 
Westinghouse-Toshiba, Arera-Mitsubishi, and General Electric-Hitachi 
have already expressed interest in bidding.  Last week, the Vietnam 
Atomic Energy Commission sponsored an exhibition on the development 
of civilian nuclear power that attracted participants from Russia, 
China, Japan, France and South Korea. 
 
FOREIGN WORKERS FLOCKING TO VIETNAM 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
HANOI 00000610  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
6. (U) The number of foreigners working in Vietnam has soared in the 
past few months after the GVN lifted restrictions hiring foreign 
workers.  By the end of March there were 67 percent more foreigners 
working for enterprises in Viet Nam than there were in December 
2007, according to online recruiting agency Vietnamwork.com. 
Predictably, the biggest centers of foreign recruitment are Ho Chi 
Minh City, Hanoi and Danang, in that order.  The hottest employment 
opportunities for foreigners were in the securities industry and the 
financial sector.  The influx of foreign workers and expertise is 
helping to provide relief for the over-tapped local labor market. 
 
MOBIFONE CONNECTS WITH YAHOO 
-------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) Vietnamese telecom company VMS-MobiFone and Yahoo signed on 
May 8 a cooperation agreement to launch a joint search service on 
mobile phones named oneSEARCH.  MobiFone and Yahoo hope to tap in to 
growing demand for mobile search services.  To ensure service 
quality, MobiFone has upgraded its network to serve over 15 million 
users and plans to raise the capacity to 25 million customers. 
 
SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT ON MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
8. (U) The Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) is 
auditing the number of subscribers of the major mobile telephone 
networks, and the results of the audit will be made public.  Thus, 
MIC hopes to settle competing claims by mobile networks on who has 
the highest number of subscribers.  The inaccurate statistics of 
subscribers arose in part because the four major networks (MobiFone, 
Viettel, VinaPhone and S-Fone) use different methods of calculation. 
 The other three providers: HT Mobile, GTel and EVN Telecom are not 
subject to this review because of their modest number of 
subscribers, and in the case of G-Tel, because it has not yet begun 
to offer services. 
 
VIETNAM OKS AIRLINE INSURANCE COMPANY 
------------------------------- 
 
9. (U) The Ministry of Finance has approved the establishment of the 
Vietnam Airlines Insurance (VNI) Company with initial capital of 
$31.2 million to provide insurance services for air transport as 
well as marine and land transit, accident insurance and other 
non-life insurance services.  VNI's founding shareholders include 
Vietnam Airlines, the Vietnam Coal and Mineral Industries Group and 
Vietnam Machinery Installation Corporation, among others. 
 
WORK BEGINS ON $6 BILLION OIL REFINERY 
-------------------------------------- 
 
10.  (U) On May 10, builders broke ground for the construction of 
the Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Complex, in northern 
Vietnam.  State-owned PetroVietnam holds a 25.1 percent stake in the 
refinery and petrochemical complex, while Japanese refiner Idemitsu 
Kosan Co. and Kuwait Petroleum International hold 35.1 percent each, 
and Japan's Mitsui Chemicals holds 4.7 percent.  The first stage of 
the country's largest- ever construction project will cost an 
estimated $6 billion.  The plant is scheduled to go into operation 
by 2013.  Its main products will include liquefied petroleum gas, 
non-lead petroleum, diesel oil, kerosene, and jet oil.  When 
operational in 2013, the refinery will process 200,000 barrels of 
oil a day, or 10 million tons a year.  With the completion of the 
second stage, the complex's capacity will double, although a date 
for that completion has not been announced (REF C). 
 
MICHALAK