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Viewing cable 08BEIRUT669, LEBANON: GEAGEA DROPS BY AGAIN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BEIRUT669 2008-05-12 21:34 2011-05-06 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Beirut
Appears in these articles:
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11352
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11351
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11627
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11626
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11712
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11713
VZCZCXRO2338
OO RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #0669/01 1332134
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 122134Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2271
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2575
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000669 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK 
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ASEC UNSC EAIR SA IR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA DROPS BY AGAIN 
 
REF: A. BEIRUT 654 
 
     B. BEIRUT 618 
     C. BEIRUT 663 
     D. BEIRUT 642 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
1. (C) Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, in a May 12 
evening drop-by with Minister of Tourism Joseph Sarkis to the 
Embassy, said that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora was doing 
"excellently."  He said that March 14 leaders Saad Hariri and 
Walid Jumblatt should stop pressuring Siniora to convene a 
Cabinet meeting aimed at considering withdrawal of its 
controversial decisions to transfer the head of airport 
security and declare Hizballah's fiber optics network 
illegal.  Geagea said Siniora is resolute in upholding the 
Cabinet's decisions.  Geagea suggested that the Cabinet's 
decisions be used as a bargaining chip in a National Dialogue 
to get a firm commitment from the opposition to withdraw from 
the streets and open the airport road. 
 
2. (C) Geagea believes that the Qatari-led Arab League 
delegation can be most helpful if it arrives in Beirut on May 
14 to propose a substantive program, rather than to be in 
listening-mode. Ultimately, a long-term strategy to defeating 
Hizballah is necessary, Geagea stated.  He told us that he is 
working with Internal Security Forces (ISF) General Rifi 
(allied with Saad Hariri) on buying ammunitions for his 
militia and for Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party 
fighters.  End summary. 
 
SINIORA DOING "EXCELLENTLY" 
--------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea and Minister 
of Tourism and loyal LF member Joseph Sarkis stopped by the 
Embassy at 1800 on May 12 to report to the Charge, A/DCM, 
Defense Attache, and PolOff on his day of meetings with key 
political figures.  Geagea declared at the outset that he had 
visited Prime Minister Fouad Siniora earlier in the day at 
1500, and "Siniora is doing excellently," which we note is an 
improvement from the previous day (Ref A).  Geagea explained 
that the PM is isolated from the outside world since he is 
holed up for security reasons at the Grand Serail. 
 
CABINET IS CONSIDERING 
WITHDRAWING ITS DECISIONS 
------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Geagea reported that he visited the PM to convince him 
to convene the Cabinet in order to discuss withdrawing its 
May 5 decisions to transfer the head of airport security and 
declare Hizballah's fiber optics network illegal (Ref B). 
Siniora rejected his appeal, Geagea relayed, and told him 
that the Cabinet cannot withdraw its decisions without a 
serious guarantee that the opposition will withdraw from the 
streets and the airport road.  Geagea said that Siniora was 
threatening to resign precisely because he was opposed to 
withdrawing the Cabinet's decisions.  Moreover, Geagea said, 
we as March 14 have already been humiliated enough. 
 
5. (C) Concluding that Siniora would not budge, Geagea told 
us that we should urge March 14 leaders Saad Hariri and Walid 
Jumblatt to stop pushing Siniora.  "The PM will not give 
anything for free," Geagea stated, himself agreeing with the 
PM.  (Note:  Jumblatt listed for us immediately before we saw 
Geagea the March 14 leaders who were now advocating the 
Cabinet withdraw its decisions, septel.  End note.) 
 
6. (C) Geagea told us he would support withdrawing the 
decisions if it meant it would resolve the situation.  (Note: 
 Unsurprisingly, Minister Sarkis said that if the Cabinet 
met, he would vote against withdrawing the decisions.  Two 
Cabinet members had been out of the country for the last few 
days preventing the Cabinet from having a quorum, but Acting 
Foreign Minister Tareq Mitri returned today, May 12, while 
Minister of Displaced Nehme Tohme's plans were not known to 
the group.  End note.) 
 
BEIRUT 00000669  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
7. (C) Geagea called at 2240 today to report that Saad was 
leaning on him to influence his members of the Cabinet 
(Minister Sarkis) to agree that the Cabinet should withdraw 
its decisions.  Geagea said he would continue to work on 
Ghattas Khoury, senior advisor to Saad.  He also noted that 
Saad will soon be holding a press conference (NFI). 
 
USING THE DECISIONS 
AS A BARGAINING CHIP 
-------------------- 
 
8. (C) Geagea wondered what the Arab League delegation, 
headed by Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hamad 
bin Jassim, will bring when it is expected to arrive in 
Beirut on Wednesday, May 14.  "What are they proposing?" he 
inquired, suggesting that March 14 use the possibility of 
withdrawing the Cabinet's decisions as a bargaining chip in 
the Arab League-sponsored talks or in the National Dialogue. 
 
9. (C) Minister Sarkis proposed that March 14 work to return 
the situation to as it was before the Cabinet made its 
controversial decisions on May 5.  He recommended that March 
14 "trade" the withdrawal of its decisions in exchange for 
the opposition pulling off the streets and opening the 
airport road.  Geagea noted that he believed Hizballah was 
not satisfied with how the situation was playing out, and 
that it feels obliged to act.  No one knew whether the 
opposition was willing to go to a National Dialogue absent a 
withdrawal by the Cabinet of its decisions. 
 
NEED A LONG-TERM STRATEGY 
TO DEFEAT HIZBALLAH 
------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Geagea noted that the current situation is not 
terrible, but that March 14 needed something significant to 
"hold Hizballah back."  He offered, "We could turn a defeat 
into a victory."  He told the Charge that the focus needs to 
shift to a more long-term look at how to defeat Hizballah. 
 
11. (C) Privately, Geagea followed up on his previous 
requests for ammunition for his LF fighters (Ref D), and 
informed the Charge that he had seen Internal Security Forces 
(ISF) Director General Ashraf Rifi earlier in the day. 
Geagea reported that he is working with Rifi on buying 
ammunition at list price from other countries for himself and 
Walid Jumblatt.  (Comment:  We visited Rifi at 1300 today, 
May 12, and then saw him later in the afternoon at his close 
friend Saad's residence, septel.  It looks like Geagea is 
moving along with his preparations to arm his fighters.  End 
comment.) 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
12. (C) Geagea approached us to ask that we urge Saad and 
Jumblatt to ease their pressure on Siniora to agree to 
withdraw the Cabinet's decisions.  While Siniora has been 
resolute in upholding the Cabinet's decisions, to the point 
of choosing to resign rather than concede on this issue, it 
is interesting to note that we were told by several 
interlocutors that Siniora had walked into the May 5 Cabinet 
meeting believing the head of airport security Wafiq Chucair 
should be investigated before a transfer decision was made. 
Always thinking strategically, Geagea appeared indifferent as 
to whether the Cabinet withdrew its decisions or not, and was 
more interested in moving beyond the "issue of the day" so 
that the bigger problems (Hizballah) can be tackled. 
 
13. (C) We hear Saad Hariri and Geagea when they say that 
they do not want the Arab League delegation to be in 
"listening-mode" during their visit.  We agree that the 
delegation can be most helpful if it brings a serious program 
to table.  Geagea and Siniora have started thinking along 
these lines by suggesting that the Cabinet's decisions be 
discussed in a National Dialogue.  To make this visit 
effective, we suggest the delegation draws up a firm program 
prior to its arrival.  End comment. 
SISON