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Viewing cable 08TOKYO973, JAPANESE POLITICIANS QUIBBLE AS ECONOMY SHOWS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08TOKYO973 2008-04-09 08:04 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXRO7146
PP RUEHCHI RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHPB RUEHRN
DE RUEHKO #0973 1000804
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090804Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA PRIORITY 7173
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA PRIORITY 5609
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA PRIORITY 9553
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE PRIORITY 0842
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO PRIORITY 7767
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/TREASURY DEPT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3308
INFO RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION PRIORITY
RUEHSS/OECD POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 2210
UNCLAS TOKYO 000973 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR IA POGGI AND DOHNER; NSC FOR TONG; STATE FOR 
EAP/J WEBSTER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV JA
SUBJECT: JAPANESE POLITICIANS QUIBBLE AS ECONOMY SHOWS 
SIGNS OF STRAIN 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary.  Although signs are Japan's main political 
parties may have finally agreed on a new central bank head, 
there is little to suggest they are looking at indications of 
an economic slowdown.  Moreover, rather than undertake or 
even focus on needed economic reforms, national politicians 
argue endlessly over the fate of the provisional gas taxes 
and look likely to begin pointing fingers again over the 
scandal of Japan's lost pension records.  The political 
malaise is not the cause of the slowdown, but it contributes 
at the margin to a lack of confidence by Japan's public in 
their future and by foreigners over the ability of Japanese 
policymakers to deal effectively with the short, medium, or 
long-term issues facing the economy.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) Getting less play than the headlines featuring 
ongoing conflicts between the ruling coalition and the 
opposition over extending provisional gas taxes, the 
appointment of a new Governor for the Bank of Japan (BOJ), 
and the loss of millions of pension records are reports of a 
slowing Japanese economy.  Despite good performance in fourth 
quarter 2007 with real GDP growth at an annualized rate of 
3.5 percent, downside risks to Japan,s economy are becoming 
more apparent.  Many analysts cite concern about the a rising 
yen, the slowing U.S. economy's impact on Japan's exports to 
the United States, as well on growth in Japan's other export 
markets.  Closer to home, sharp increases in materials prices 
are damaging the prospects for the corporate sector, 
particularly for SMEs; earlier in the calendar year, housing 
investment plunged as the revised Building Standards Law 
dramatically slowed approvals for new construction, with a 
rebound not fully realized; and personal consumption remains 
sluggish as real incomes are hit by higher food and gasoline 
prices and some softening in the labor market. 
 
3.  (U) The BOJ's quarterly "tankan" survey of business 
confidence, released April 1, showed across-the-board 
deterioration in business sentiment among Japanese companies 
of all sizes.  In addition to the reading for large 
manufacturers' views on whether business conditions were 
favorable or unfavorable dropping to the lowest level in four 
years, the survey found that new capital spending by all 
enterprises in FY08 is likely to decline 5.3 percent from the 
previous year, falling 1.6 percent for large firms.  Large 
manufacturers project pretax profits in FY08 to remain flat 
from FY07 levels.  However, that figure assumes an exchange 
rate of 109 yen to the U.S. dollar.  Should the yen remain 
stronger than that assumption, profits could fall from year 
earlier levels on average. 
 
4.  (U) Another BOJ survey of consumer sentiment released on 
April 3 also finds deteriorating conditions, with more 
consumers saying economic conditions have worsened than say 
they have improved.  The index is at its lowest level in five 
years.  Press reports speculate that the depressed consumer 
outlook has been affected by recent price hikes, lower stock 
prices, a stronger yen, slowing economies overseas and recent 
political confusion in Japan. 
 
5.  (SBU) Comment.  In terms of real effects on the economy, 
the political confusion does not have a direct impact in the 
short-term.  However, the uncertainty created by the failure 
to extend the provisional gas taxes, to be followed by 
potential reinstatement in a month, and the general 
perception that the government and politicians are incapable 
of moving forward in a constructive manner have an indirect 
impact on sentiment among both businesses and consumers.  The 
longer the political impasse continues, the more likely that 
local and foreign investors will become convinced  Japan's 
policymakers are not only incapable of dealing effectively 
with the immediate issues at hand, such as financing this 
year's budget, but lack the vision and foresight to 
adequately address the need for medium-term fiscal 
consolidation and put in place policies to deal with Japan,s 
aging population and changing social security commitments, 
let alone other long-needed reforms. 
SCHIEFFER