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Viewing cable 08BUENOSAIRES563, ARGENTINE PRESIDENTQS APPROVAL RATINGS TAKE A HIT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BUENOSAIRES563 2008-04-29 16:38 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Buenos Aires
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0563 1201638
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291638Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0905
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000563 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINE PRESIDENTQS APPROVAL RATINGS TAKE A HIT 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Local papers report that President Cristina 
Fernandez de KirchnerQs approval ratings have fallen as low as 36% 
because of her handling of the rural sector strike and growing 
concerns over inflation and insecurity.  The papers do not name 
specific polling firms, however, because most firms have delayed the 
official release of their latest numbers.  To help boost numbers the 
government is reportedly trying to pull together a set of measures 
for a new QlaunchQ on ArgentinaQs May 25 independence day.  They 
seem to be thinking of a new Qsocial pactQ as well as a hoped for 
solution to the rural strikes.  New cabinet shifts are also still 
rumored.  End summary. 
 
Anonymous Pollsters 
------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Approval ratings for President Cristina Fernandez de 
Kirchner (CFK) have been missing from most papers since the rural 
strike in mid-March.  Polls are usually completed by the end of the 
month and released to local papers.  This month, however, most 
polling firms officially have declined to publish numbers until 
after the agriculture sector crisis is over.  The pollsters argue 
that their decision is methodologically based on the "high 
volatility" of public opinion in this situation.  Some have spoken 
to newspapers on an "off-the-record" basis, but decline to release 
the polling data.  Dailies "La Nacion" and "Critica" both reported 
that CFK's approval ratings are now as low as 36%, down somewhere 
between 8 and 10 points from March.  Leading circulation daily 
"Clarin," citing Graciela Romer (the only pollster who has released 
data), had CFKQs approval at 41%. 
 
3.  (SBU) A more likely explanation for the lack of specific polling 
data is that the government does not want the low approval ratings 
publicly released.  In the same vein, the pollsters seem to be 
holding data back because so many of them do business with the 
government.  "La Nacion" reported on Sunday that out of 20 
nationally recognized polling firms, 12 are regularly contracted by 
the government.  Telam, the government news agency, predictably 
highlighted a poll that gave CFK an approval rating of 62.2%. 
 
Nestor's Shadow 
--------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Nestor's approval rating has similarly suffered, but to a 
lesser degree than his wife's.  "Critica," citing a 
government-commissioned poll, noted that NK has 47% approval 
ratings, which is also a notable drop from earlier numbers.  One 
Embassy contact in the polling sector said that releasing NKQs 
approval ratings would be tricky, as the Casa Rosada was acutely 
aware of possible negative implications of Nestor maintaining 
numbers about 10 points higher than CFK and much closer to 50%. 
(Note: CFKQs approval has always been notably lower than NestorQs 
and she won 45% of the vote.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (SBU) The lack of polling data has not caused much concern, as 
many local papers have widely reported "off-the-record" numbers on 
the decline in CFKQs approval ratings.  CFK probably (and 
reasonably) expects that demonstrated progress with the rural sector 
will help restore her image.  The government however, is reportedly 
planning a big QrelaunchQ around May 25 independence day which they 
would like to conclude a Qsocial pactQ among government, industry, 
banking, and unions, among other potential signs of life.  New 
cabinet shifts also still are thought possible as part of the 
effort.  End Comment.