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Viewing cable 08MANILA666, ANTI-ARROYO FERVOR FIZZLES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08MANILA666 2008-03-14 09:17 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Manila
VZCZCXRO4782
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #0666/01 0740917
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 140917Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0149
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000666 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KCOR PINR RP
SUBJECT: ANTI-ARROYO FERVOR FIZZLES 
 
REF: A. MANILA 521 (PROTESTS LACK CRITICAL MASS) 
 
B. MANILA 517 (MANILA BRACES FOR ANOTHER DEMONSTRATION) 
C. MANILA 483 (BRIBERY ALLEGATIONS ROIL ADMINISTRATION) 
D. MANILA 316 (HOUSE SPEAKER OUSTED) 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: As corruption allegations against the Arroyo 
Administration persist, the general public appears increasingly 
uninspired about prospects for removing President Arroyo from office 
before 2010.  The February 25 and 29 anti-Arroyo rallies in the 
streets of Metro Manila failed to attract crowds or fervor in any 
way comparable to the events that brought down former Presidents 
Marcos or Estrada (ref A and B).  As this mostly Catholic country 
prepares for Easter and as students leave university campuses for 
summer recess, the opportunity for mass demonstrations against 
Arroyo diminishes accordingly.  Organizers of a March 14 "rally for 
truth" in Manila openly admitted that they did not expect large 
crowds - another sign of "people power" fatigue.  The House and 
Senate recessed on March 12 for the Easter holidays, further 
mitigating political noise against the administration.  President 
Arroyo appears poised to serve out her term until 2010.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
UNIVERSITY STUDENTS UNAVAILABLE FOR PROTESTS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) During the March 11 ceremony for the signing of the national 
budget, President Arroyo noted that "people are tired of the 
politics of division and despair" -- a warning to the opposition to 
recognize that she fully intends to stay in power until 2010.  While 
the opposition continued to plan anti-Arroyo demonstrations, 
including a "rally for truth" in Manila on March 14, its ability to 
attract demonstrators has been severely hampered by factors outside 
their control, including the Easter holidays, when many Metro Manila 
residents return to their home provinces.  University students in 
Metro Manila, who have turned out in large numbers for the recent 
rallies, are now preparing for final examinations and summer 
holidays.  Manila's largest universities, including University of 
the Philippines, Ateneo de Manila, De La Salle University, and 
University of Santo Tomas, will recess for over two months beginning 
in the middle of March. 
 
CONGRESS BREAKS FROM ITS INVESTIGATIONS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Both houses of Congress adjourned on March 12 and will not 
resume sessions until April 21.  While congressional committees are 
allowed to hold hearings during recess, the Senate committees 
investigating the ZTE national broadband network controversy (ref C) 
have not decided when formal inquiries will resume.  While the calls 
for Arroyo's resignation may continue for months to come, opposition 
leaders will probably not garner any support or momentum until 
October, at the earliest, when the House can file another 
impeachment complaint against the President.  The Constitution 
prohibits the filing of more than one impeachment complaint against 
the same official within a one-year period; President Arroyo has 
survived three impeachment attempts so far, the most recent in 
October 2007. 
 
OUTSIDE MANILA, ARROYO REMAINS STRONG 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) While political and business elites in Metro Manila remain 
enthralled with the latest turn of events in the corruption 
scandals, local and regional leaders throughout the country have 
expressed -- in separate visits to Malacanang Presidential Palace 
and in manifestos published in national newspapers -- their 
continued support for President Arroyo to serve out her term until 
2010.  The Union of Local Authorities, the League of Provinces, the 
League of Cities, the League of Municipalities, the Vice Governors 
League, the Philippine Councilors League, and the Provincial Board 
Members League have all lauded the President's strong economic 
leadership and rejected what some regional leaders have called "the 
tyranny of imperial Manila." 
 
THE CHURCH: RESTRAINED BUT INFLUENTIAL 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) While some critics have argued that the Catholic Church's 
political relevance has waned in recent years, the Catholic Bishops 
Conference of the Philippines continues to demonstrate its 
influential force in the inner circles of government.  While 
unwilling to call for Arroyo's resignation amidst the recent 
scandals, the Catholic Bishops were able to quietly convince 
President Arroyo to revoke a controversial executive order that 
prohibited executive branch officials from testifying in Congress 
without prior approval from the President.  The order's revocation 
paves the way for government officials to appear before the Senate 
and testify about the ZTE scandal. 
 
MANILA 00000666  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
SECURITY FORCES REMAIN LOYAL 
---------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) During a March 13 breakfast with the Ambassador, Philippine 
Chief of the Armed Forces General Hermogenes Esperon, Jr., said that 
he was "proud" of the conduct of the military and police during the 
recent protests.  Esperon noted that the security forces had turned 
a critical corner in their ability to handle large demonstrations 
without incident.  Although the police were under tremendous 
pressure during the recent demonstrations, Esperon emphasized that 
the demonstrations remained peaceful, and the police and military 
upheld their responsibility to ensure public order.  Despite media 
rumors that the military could act extra-constitutionally to oust 
the President, Esperon said responsible decisionmakers knew better, 
citing prominent members of the business community who had called to 
offer their support during the rallies and to compliment the 
exemplary behavior of the police and military. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7. (SBU) As churchgoers prepare for Easter, students leave 
university campuses for summer recess, and Congress takes a 
five-week break, the opportunity for mass demonstrations against 
Arroyo will likely dissipate for the near future.  The general 
public outside of Metro Manila appears largely nonplussed by the 
latest corruption allegations or the continued calls for the 
President's resignation.  While the scandals may dominate headlines 
of Metro Manila's newspapers for weeks to come, the upcoming March 
15 match of national boxing hero Manny Pacquaio will be everyone's 
dinner-table conversation, not the fate of Arroyo.  The President 
appears to have staved off yet another round of attacks by her 
detractors and critics, and seems poised to serve out her term until 
2010. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov 
 
KENNEY