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Viewing cable 08IRANRPODUBAI14, IRANIAN MAJLES ELECTIONS--PARTIAL RESULTS IN, BUT RUNOFFS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08IRANRPODUBAI14 2008-03-16 13:55 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Iran RPO Dubai
VZCZCXRO6227
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0014/01 0761355
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 161355Z MAR 08
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0244
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0237
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000014 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GAYLE, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD 
BAKU FOR HAUGEN, ISTANBUL FOR ODLUM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: IR PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: IRANIAN MAJLES ELECTIONS--PARTIAL RESULTS IN, BUT RUNOFFS 
ARE NECESSARY 
 
REF: A. RPO DUBAI 0012; B. RPO DUBAI  0008; C. RPO DUBAI 0013; D RPO DUBAI 0010 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000014  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1.(SBU) Summary: Partial Majles (parliament) elections results 
from Tehran indicate that, as expected, conservatives dominated 
the elections in that important constituency.  In Tehran, 14 of 
the 30 seats have been decided, and all of those seats have gone 
to conservatives.  However, it is difficult to delineate between 
pro-Ahmadinejad hardliners and the president's conservative 
critics.  According to Iranian press, runoff elections will be 
held in late April for the remaining 16 seats in Tehran, as well 
as for seats in 17 other constituencies.  Final elections 
results for the entire Majles will not be available until after 
the runoffs.  The partial results also indicate that reformers 
fared better than expected in provinces outside Tehran, however 
they nonetheless remain a minority in parliament.  Iranian press 
have reported differing percentages of voter turnout, varying 
between 60-65%, although an independent calculation of the 
numbers reported suggest it could be as low as 52%.  In the 
concurrently-held Assembly of Experts by-elections, the 
influential senior cleric Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani was elected to 
one of the Tehran seats on the Assembly.  End summary. 
 
Conservatives dominate Tehran -- based on partial results 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
2.(SBU) According to the partial elections results for the 
important Tehran constituency, conservatives dominated as 
expected, but it was unclear how many of those conservatives are 
supporters of President Ahmadinejad.  The two main conservative 
coalitions each put out electoral lists that served as voting 
guides for the public (reftel A).  One of the two main groups, 
the United Front of Principle-ists (UFP), has been associated in 
the press with President Ahmadinejad, but the UFP list also 
includes some of his most vocal conservative critics, such as 
current Majles speaker Haddad-Adel, deputy Majles speaker 
Bahonar, and Majles Research Center head Tavakkoli, all of whom 
were re-elected on Friday. 
 
3.(SBU) The other major conservative coalition, the Broad and 
Popular Coalition of Principle-ists (BPCP), was created by 
former National Security Council Secretary Larijani, former IRGC 
commander Rezaie, and Tehran mayor Qalibaf, all of whom ran 
against Ahmadinejad in the 2005 presidential election. 
Larijani, Rezaie, and Qalibaf are regarded as more traditional, 
pragmatic conservatives.  Although their views on nuclear and 
foreign policy issues do not appear to differ greatly from the 
established government policies, they have criticized 
Ahmadinejad at times and indicate a greater willingness to 
engage with the West and the international community (reftels B, 
C).  International press coverage of the elections has cast the 
UFP list as pro-Ahmadinejad, and the BPCP list as his 
conservative critics, however as noted earlier, the UFP list 
features some prominent Ahmadinejad critics.  To further muddy 
the waters, the UFP and BPCP lists for the critical Tehran 
constituency had nine candidates in common, making it difficult 
to delineate between pro-Ahmadinejad hardliners and the 
president's conservative critics. 
 
Reformers gain seats in provinces 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.(SBU) Reformers have reportedly fared better than expected, 
according to the partial results.  Reform groups are now 
expected to gain some seats in the parliament, slightly 
increasing their strength, although they remain a minority.  In 
the previous Majles reformers had 40 seats.  The spokesman of 
one of the main reformist coalitions was quoted by AFP March 16 
saying that reformers were set to gain about 50 seats outside of 
Tehran, and expected to pick up more seats in the runoff 
elections for Tehran.  Reformers were ultimately only able to 
field candidates for around 100 of 290 Majles seats.  Although 
the ability of reformers to effect change in Iranian policy 
remains minimal, the fact that they won over 50% of the seats 
that they were able to compete for -- if reports are accurate -- 
would seem to indicate that the Iranian public is more 
supportive of reformers than the government would like to 
portray. 
 
Runoffs scheduled for late April 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
5.(U) According to Iranian press, because only 14 candidates in 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000014  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Tehran received the required minimum 25% of the vote, runoff 
elections will be held in late April for the remaining 16 seats 
in Tehran, as well as for seats in 17 other constituencies 
(Note:  It is unclear from press reports how many open seats 
remain in the other 17 constituencies.  Endnote.)  Final 
elections results for the entire Majles will not be available 
until after the runoffs. 
 
Voter turnout estimates differ 
 
------------------------------ 
 
ΒΆ6. (SBU) Iranian press has reported differing percentages of 
voter turnout, varying between 60-65%, although independent 
calculation of the numbers reported suggest it could be as low 
as 52%.  In differing reports in the Iranian press on March 15, 
Interior Ministry figures of 65% voter turnout were cited, and 
alternately Interior Minister Purmohammadi said that 60% of 
eligible voters took part in the elections.  However, the same 
press report citing the 60% figure also gave the number of votes 
as approximately 22.8 million, which when calculated represents 
about 52% of the 44 million eligible voters in Iran.  There was 
no explanation in the press reports of the discrepancy. 
 
Assembly of Experts by-elections 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
7.(U) In the concurrently-held Assembly of Experts by-elections, 
the influential senior cleric Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani was elected 
to one of the Tehran seats on the Assembly. See reftel D for 
discussion of possible long-term significance for the position 
of the Supreme Leader. 
BURNS