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Viewing cable 08ADDISABABA716, MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW FOR FEBRUARY 2008

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08ADDISABABA716 2008-03-12 12:38 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Addis Ababa
VZCZCXRO2632
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #0716/01 0721238
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121238Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9926
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000716 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD EINV EAGR ET
SUBJECT: MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW FOR FEBRUARY 2008 
 
 
1. SUMMARY 
-- The Ethiopian Parliament passed a law imposing taxes on the 
export of raw and semi-processed leather and hides; the Council of 
Ministers lifted 5 percent duty and 10 percent surtax on imports of 
computers. 
 
-- The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) adjusted domestic oil prices 
effective January 26; the price for ordinary benzene (automobile 
fuel) rose by over 23 percent. 
 
-- Annual headline inflation soared to 19.7% and food inflation to 
27.8% in January. 
 
-- The Ethiopian Birr is steadily depreciating against the US 
dollar, and the premium between the official and black market rate 
is widening significantly. 
 
--The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office awarded Ethiopia trademarks 
for its specialty Harar and Sidamo coffee brands. 
 
--Ethiopian exports under the African Growth and Opportunity Act and 
Generalized System of Preferences (AGOA and GSP) increased to $8.9 
million. 
 
FISCAL POLICY 
------------- 
 
2. On February 7, the Ethiopian Parliament approved a bill imposing 
export duties ranging from 5 to 150 percent on raw and 
semi-processed hides and skins.  The major objective of the bill is 
to encourage exports of processed hides and skins to increase the 
country's foreign exchange earnings from the leather sector. 
 
3. The Council of Ministers passed a decision to lift the 5 per cent 
duty and 10 percent surtax on imports of computers based on the role 
computers play in technology transfer and education.  The 15 percent 
VAT and 3 percent withholding tax charged on these goods, however, 
have not been lifted.  Scholars and businessmen have been lobbying 
the government for the last 10 years to lift duties and taxes on 
computers claiming that they are fundamental for the economic growth 
of the country and continue to advocate the lifting of VAT and 
withholding. 
 
DOMESTIC FUEL PRICE INCREASE 
---------------------------- 
 
4. The Council of Ministers approved a domestic fuel price 
readjustment effective January 26, 2008.  Domestic oil prices are 
adjusted every three months while price shocks are absorbed by a 
Fuel Stabilization Fund set for this purpose.  Despite oil price 
hikes in the world market, the GoE had not increased domestic prices 
in the last year, costing the GoE over $350 million in subsidies. 
According to the new prices, a liter of regular gasoline is sold for 
$1.04, kerosene for $0.62, white diesel for $0.75, black diesel for 
$0.64 and super benzene for $0.80 at filling stations in Addis 
Ababa. Regular benzene increased by 23.7%, kerosene by 38.8%, white 
diesel by 26.8%, black diesel by 42% and super benzene by 43.2%.  It 
is feared that the oil price adjustment will aggravate already 
rising inflation. 
 
 
PRICE DEVELOPMENTS 
------------------ 
 
5. According to official statistics published by the Central 
Statistics Agency (CSA), annual headline inflation rose to 19.7% in 
January from 18.4% in December. Food inflation reached 27.8% in 
January in contrast to 25.7% in December.   The rise on prices is 
fueled by the recent domestic oil price adjustment and the inflation 
rate is expected to rise further in February.  The GoE argues that 
the rise in inflation is a reflection of the broad based economic 
growth achieved in the past few years that boosted demand for goods 
and services.  Meanwhile many economists in the private sector, the 
Chamber of Commerce, and opposition parties argue that the different 
measures taken by the Government to curb inflation so far have not 
brought the desired results. 
 
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE BIRR 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
6. The Ethiopian Birr has depreciated significantly against the 
United States dollar in recent months.  The inter-bank rate at the 
end of February reached Birr 9.3356 per USD in contrast to Birr 
9.239 at end of January and Birr 8.8415 a year earlier.  The black 
market rate has become more volatile and the premium between the 
official and black market is widening.  Up to Birr 10.25 is 
exchanged for a USD in the parallel (black) market, indicating a 
widening gap between the official and black market rates.  The 
depreciation in the local currency is triggered by import demand 
pressures as a result of the acute shortages of foreign exchange in 
the country. 
 
EXPORTS 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000716  002 OF 002 
 
 
------- 
7. Coffee is the country's leading export item contributing 35% of 
Ethiopia's annual merchandise export receipts.  Annual production 
for 2006/07 was estimated at 330,000 tons of beans, of which 220,000 
tones were exported earning over $420 million.  Ethiopia plans to 
boost production of coffee by 20 percent annually over the coming 
five years from an estimated production of 400,000 tons and export 
receipts of $500 million in fiscal year 2007/08.  The U.S. Patent 
and Trademark Office awarded trademarks on March 5 to Ethiopia for 
its specialty Harar and Sidamo coffee brands, following a dispute 
with leading coffee chain Starbucks Corporation over the use of the 
two names in the United States.  Starbucks is in the process of 
setting up a support centre for coffee farmers in Ethiopia. 
 
8. USAID's VEGA Ethiopia's AGOA+ Project, the only bilateral AGOA 
trade program in Africa, announced that Ethiopia has been making 
steady gains in its efforts to break into the U.S market. 
Ethiopian exports under AGOA/Generalized System of Preference (GSP) 
have increased by almost 100% to $8.9 million in 2007 since the 
project's inauguration two years ago. 
 
 
YAMAMOTO