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Viewing cable 08SANSALVADOR147, ARENA: FIVE CANDIDATES SURVIVE FIRST CUT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08SANSALVADOR147 2008-02-05 19:36 2011-06-17 23:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy San Salvador
Appears in these articles:
http://www.wikileaks.elfaro.net/es/201106/notas/4205/
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #0147 0361936
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 051936Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8972
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000147 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ES
SUBJECT: ARENA: FIVE CANDIDATES SURVIVE FIRST CUT 
 
REF: SAN SALVADOR 36 
 
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Michael A. Butler, Reasons 1.4 (b) and 
 (d) 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: ARENA's executive board announced the names 
of five candidates who will continue in the party's 
competition to become ARENA's nominee for 2009 presidential 
elections.  In a surprise to many observers, ARENA founding 
member Hugo Barrera was not among those moving on to the next 
phase of the contest.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) On February 4, COENA (ARENA's Executive Board) 
announced that five of the eighteen candidates for the 
party's presidential nomination would continue to compete in 
the second phase of the selection process.  During the next 
three weeks, the five remaining candidates will travel around 
El Salvador and invite ARENA members, business and industrial 
interests, religious groups and the general public to their 
own formal and informal events.  During the third week of 
February, COENA expects to select three of the five 
candidates to travel around El Salvador and participate in 
televised debates and other events organized by the party. 
Then on March 15, nearly 3,000 party officials will vote to 
select the party's candidate for the Salvadoran Presidency. 
 
3. (SBU) The five remaining candidates are Vice President Ana 
Vilma de Escobar; former Foreign Minister Francisco "Pancho" 
Lainez; former Legal Advisor to the President Luis Mario 
Rodriguez; former National Civilian Police (PNC) Director 
Rodrigo Avila; and ARENA founding member Eduardo Barrientos. 
 
4. (C) The surprise in COENA's February 4 announcement was 
reducing the number of names for the next phase of selection 
to five from the expected six, and eliminating the name most 
observers in and outside the party expected to see: Hugo 
Barrera, founding member of the party, successful 
businessman, and former head of the Salvadoran Port and 
Airport Authority (CEPA).  Sources close to Barrera darkly 
told PolCouns February 5 they suspected -- but could not 
prove -- this was due to fears among President Saca's inner 
circle, including Security Minister Figueroa, that they would 
have little control over a Barrera candidacy and that 
Barrera's strong support among ARENA's rank and file would 
catapult him to the front of the pack. 
 
5. (SBU) In an informal poll of listeners on the popular "A 
Primera Hora" radio program February 5, listeners were asked 
whom they expected would ultimately become ARENA's candidate. 
 Rodrigo Avila and Pancho Lainez were effectively tied, 
chosen by 31 and 30 percent of respondents, respectively. 
The rest of the candidates trailed considerably. 
 
6. (C) Comment: The only surprise in COENA's February 4 
announcement was its reduction to five the number of 
candidates that will move forward and the absence of Hugo 
Barrera, though we doubt he could have mounted an effective 
campaign against the FMLN's Funes. 
 
7. (C) Comment continued: The anecdotal results from "A 
Primera Hora" match what we hear from San Salvador's 
chattering classes.  They also match the views of President 
Saca, who told CDA February 5 that he expected either Avila 
or Lainez to be ARENA's candidate.  Few believe VP Escobar or 
Barrientos will become ARENA's candidate.  While Rodriguez 
benefits from his association with President Saca, he is 
handicapped by his tender age (35) and the fact that he was 
never a party activist.  Both Avila and Lainez benefit from 
strong name recognition and significant support from power 
centers inside ARENA. 
BUTLER