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Viewing cable 08HANOI210, SBV MOVES AGAIN AGAINST EXCESSIVE LIQUIDITY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08HANOI210 2008-02-22 10:10 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Hanoi
VZCZCXRO5857
PP RUEHHM
DE RUEHHI #0210 0531010
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221010Z FEB 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7227
RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE PRIORITY 2517
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 4339
RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK 6202
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS HANOI 000210 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, EB/IFD, USAID/ANE, USAID EGAT/EG 
BANGKOK PASS TO RDM/A 
DEPT PASS USTR FOR D BISBEE 
SINGAPORE FOR TREASURY S BAKER 
TREASURY FOR SCHUN 
DEPT PLEASE PASS FED RESERVE SAN FRANCISCO FOR A MAYEDA 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN EAID ECON PREL VM
SUBJECT: SBV MOVES AGAIN AGAINST EXCESSIVE LIQUIDITY 
 
REF:  A) Hanoi 193  B) Ho Chi Minh City xxxx 
 
1.  (SBU) The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced on February 18 
that it will issue VND 20.3tril ($1.2bil) in compulsory promissory 
notes. This third effort to control inflation follows its earlier 
actions to raise the reserve ratio and set higher interest rates. 
Forty-one commercial banks will have to buy the compulsory 
promissory notes with Vietnamese currency.  As there has been no 
public information regarding the interest rates of the notes, it is 
unclear whether the interest rates are attractive.  The fact that 
buying the notes is compulsory combined with anecdotes that the 
banks are privately griping suggests the SBV is "stuffing" the 
banks. 
2.  (SBU) The decision to force commercial banks to purchase 
compulsory promissory notes will be implemented on March 17. 
Nonetheless, the effect on the stock market was immediate - it 
dropped below 800 following the announcement, and reached a low of 
710 (down 4.63%) by the end of trading on February 20.  Banks are 
now facing a number of challenges: higher compulsory reserves 
increase the cost of capital; higher interest rates from the SBV; 
and now they have to dedicate large sums of capital to purchase 
promissory notes that may or may not be offered at competitive 
interest rates.  While the SBV has acted in order to deal with its 
determination that there is excessive liquidity, some banks now say 
there is not enough liquidity. 
3.  (SBU) Our contacts in the U.S business and banking community 
here have noted difficulties buying dong with their dollars.  For 
example, one said the banks simply do not want dollars.  The 
companies, however, have to meet their payrolls with dong.  To get 
around this problem, some are resorting to complicated purchases of 
euros.  Another contact charges that the SBV sells dong to local 
banks before foreign banks, often leaving foreign banks without the 
liquidity they needs to complete transactions.  Recent press reports 
state, however, that local banks have been experiencing the same 
problem.  When we raised this issue with the SBV in late January, 
they told us we were "misinformed" and that this problem had only 
existed for a couple of days before being remedied. 
4. (SBU) Comment: The controversy over the new compulsory promissory 
note purchases illustrates the challenges the SBV has in using its 
current instruments to rein in inflation.  It still remains to be 
seen whether they will move decisively to make exchange rate policy 
more flexible, one more tool that they could use in implementing 
monetary policy.  End comment. 
MICHALAK