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Viewing cable 08BOGOTA741, COLOMBIA LOOKS TO NEIGHBORS TO PICK UP SLACK IN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BOGOTA741 2008-02-28 15:08 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #0741/01 0591508
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281508Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1574
INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0024
RUEHGT/AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA 2467
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB LIMA 5960
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 1321
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 6602
RUEHSN/AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR 1915
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 2377
RUEHTG/AMEMBASSY TEGUCIGALPA 1534
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
UNCLAS BOGOTA 000741 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PASS TO USTR; WHA/EPSC FOR JSALAZAR; EEB/TPP/BTA FOR 
WMUNTEAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD ECON CO
SUBJECT: COLOMBIA LOOKS TO NEIGHBORS TO PICK UP SLACK IN 
FALLING VENEZUELA TRADE 
 
REF: A. (A) BOGOTA 421 
     B. (B) BOGOTA 169 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY: Colombian exports to Venezuela jumped 87% in 
2007; however, increased diplomatic and economic tensions and 
Venezuelan efforts to reduce Colombian trade have caused 
Colombian exporters to look for alternative markets.  Local 
experts tell us Colombia's automobile and textile/apparel 
industries are particularly vulnerable.  While it remains 
unclear exactly how much Colombia-Venezuela trade will fall 
in 2008, local exporters hope to continue the trend of 
increasing exports to Ecuador and Chile as well as explore 
new export opportunities with Mexico, Central America, and 
the Caribbean. Passage of the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion 
Agreement (CTPA) would significantly help stabilize 
Colombia's trade outlook.  END SUMMARY 
 
Rising Exposure Coming Back to Haunt 
------------------------------------ 
 
2. (U) Venezuela has grown into one of Colombia's most 
important markets for non-traditional goods, including 
manufactured products and agricultural items, during the past 
several years.  As a result, the exposure of Colombia's 
economy to a downturn in Venezuela or a political crisis has 
increased.  While sales to Venezuela -- estimated at $5 
billion in 2007 -- still remain only 17 percent of Colombia's 
total exports, a number of sectors have more acute exposure. 
Santiago Pardo, the international business coordinator of the 
Colombian national trade council (Consejo Gremial Nacional), 
told EconOff that he was particularly concerned about BRV 
moves to restrict Colombian automobile (ref B) and 
textile/apparel sales.  The Colombia/Venezuela Chamber of 
Commerce forecasts automobile exports to the BRV will fall 
59% in 2008. 
 
3. (U) Guillermo Perry, associate director of economic 
think-tank Fedesarollo and former chief economist for Latin 
America and the Caribbean at the World Bank, told Econoff he 
doubted Colombia would be able to sufficiently increase 
exports to other countries in the region to offset falling 
trade with Venezuela in the short term.  He projects that 
exporters of food and clothing will suffer the most.  Norman 
Correa, President of the Association of Micro, Small and 
Medium Size Businesses (ACOPI), insisted that although the 
BRV has focused more on inflammatory rhetoric than curbing 
bilateral trade thus far, they were nonetheless bracing for a 
significant fall.  Luis Carlos Villegas, President of the 
National Industrialist Association (ANDI), estimates that 
Colombian exports will drop by 50% to $2.5 billion.  However, 
all interlocutors reiterate that Colombia's trade with the 
United States remains far more important to the Colombian 
economy and agree that approval of the CTPA is crucial to 
stabilizing the country's long term trade expansion. 
 
Alternatives to Venezuela? 
-------------------------- 
 
4. (U) After the U.S. and Venezuela, Ecuador is Colombia's 
third largest trading partner.  In 2007 Colombian exports 
increased 5 percent to $1.1 billion, representing 4.3 percent 
of Colombia's total.  While relatively small in overall 
terms, Colombian exporters see significant growth 
opportunities in that Ecuador's total imports reached $12.5 
billion in 2007, or almost one-third of GDP.  Colombian trade 
with Ecuador in 2007 remained modest due to Ecuador's 
uncertain political situation and rumors of increased market 
interventions by the Correa administration.  As Colombia's 
trade relations with Venezuela have turned more complicated, 
Colombian exporters have renewed their interest in Ecuador 
and come to perceive the Correa government as more business 
friendly.  A cooling of diplomatic tensions, which flared in 
2007 over alleged coca spraying on the Colombia-Ecuador 
border, has also paved the way for increased trade.  In 
addition, Colombia and Ecuador are working to normalize 
phytosanitary standards to assist exporters of agricultural 
products.  Colombia exported just over $1 billion worth of 
 
agricultural products and processed foods to Venezuela in 
2007; some of these exports could be shifted to Ecuador. 
 
5. (U) Meanwhile, Colombia and Chile are working to finalize 
a free trade agreement to bolster recent gains in their 
trading relationship.  In 2007, trade between the two 
countries exceeded $1 billion, a 45% increase from 2006. 
According to the Colombian Department of National Statistics 
(DANE), exports to Chile rose 44% to $341 million between 
January and November of 2007.  Colombia plans to build on 
recent gains in exporting services, agricultural products and 
light manufacturing (textiles, footwear, clothing, leather 
products, etc.) to Chile as well as tap into the booming 
Chilean automobile market which consumed 250,000 vehicles 
last year.  Chile was also an important source of foreign 
direct investment in Colombia last year, with several Chilean 
firms entering the retail and commercial sectors. 
 
6. (U) Looking beyond Colombia's immediate South American 
neighbors, Correa noted that Colombia is strengthening 
economic ties with Mexico, and said he foresees exports to 
Mexico ($454 million in 2007) eventually exceeding exports to 
Ecuador.  He also predicts increased trade with Honduras, El 
Salvador, and Guatemala following the July 2007 conclusion of 
Colombia's trade agreement with the northern triangle of 
Central America, as well as strong prospects for more sales 
to Caribbean nations.  Finally, he believes that Colombia's 
growing economic and political ties to the European Union 
(EU) bode well for trade diversification outside of the 
region.  Exports to the EU were $3.8 billion in 2007, a 14 
percent increase from 2006. 
Brownfield