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Viewing cable 08ZAGREB64, CROATIAN ECONOMY - THE DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08ZAGREB64 2008-01-30 08:43 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Zagreb
UNCLAS        ZAGREB 00064

SIPDIS
R 300843Z JAN 08

FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8524
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASH DC
UNCLAS ZAGREB 000064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PGOV HR ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
SUBJECT: CROATIAN ECONOMY - THE DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES 
 
REF: ZAGREB 0035 
 
1. Summary: Croatia's economy grew strongly in 2007, with most 
analysts predicting an annual growth rate of 5.9 percent.  Fueled 
largely by increased consumption, government revenues also grew at a 
better-than-expected rate, rising nearly 15 percent.  The 
government's fiscal deficit is expected to be less than 3 percent of 
GDP.  However, with the global economic environment changing, 2008 
promises to be much less benign for Croatia.  Higher inflation and 
flat consumption are likely to result in slower growth and pressure 
for wage increases.  Government revenue growth will also slow at a 
time when a new government has come to power with promises of 
spending increases to coalition partners that could prove difficult 
to reconcile with its platform of fiscal consolidation.  End 
Summary. 
 
Economy Solid in 2007 
--------------------- 
2. By most accounts, 2007 was a good year for Croatia's economy. 
Analysts' estimates predict an annual growth rate of 5.9 percent. 
Inflation, although rising at the end of the year, was 2.9 percent 
overall.  Meanwhile, strong revenue growth of nearly 15 percent 
enabled the government to continue with its program of fiscal 
consolidation with projections that the fiscal deficit will drop to 
2.8 percent.  At the same time, central bank policies to limit 
foreign currency credit growth appear to have taken hold, leading 
banks to increase their share of kuna lending, effectively 
stabilizing Croatia's substantial foreign debt at 86 percent of 
GDP. 
 
Consumption-led Growth 
---------------------- 
3. Growth, which was above Croatia's six-year average of 4.78 
percent, was driven largely by increased consumption, which accounts 
for around 60 percent of Croatia's GDP.  Bank lending, which has 
been a strong driver of Croatia's economy, increased at a slower 
pace than in previous years, but still grew by 16 percent from 2006. 
 At the same time, four large lump sum payments to nearly half a 
million pensioners injected nearly 5.7 billion kunas (USD 1.1 
billion) into the economy from mid-2006 until November 2007.  These 
payments were part of a settlement of a "debt" to pensioners that 
has largely been cleared with the last payment in November.  The 
government financed these payments through sales of its shares in 
the pharmaceutical company Pliva to Barr Pharmaceuticals of the U.S. 
and through IPOs of shares in the national oil company INA and the 
national telecom firm HT. 
 
Economic Environment Not So Benign in 2008 
------------------------------------------ 
4. Croatia has begun to feel some of the consequences of volatility 
in international markets and rising energy prices.  Inflation 
reached 4.5 percent in December, prompting calls for government 
action (reftel).  Central Bank Governor Zeljko Rohatinski has said 
on several occasions that inflation could be as high as 6 percent in 
2008.  Consumption, which accounts for 60 percent of Croatia's GDP, 
is also expected to slow as consumers feel the pinch of higher 
prices.  The tightening of credit markets has already been felt in 
Croatia as interest rates have begun to rise.  Consequently, 
analysts expect 2008 GDP growth to be a least a percent lower. 
 
No Second Mandate Honeymoon for Sanader 
--------------------------------------- 
5. The Croatian economy has strong seasonal variations due to the 
heavy influence of summer tourism, which accounts for one fifth of 
GDP.  As a result, GDP growth rates are calculated against the same 
quarter of the previous year.  Last year saw an unusually high 
growth rate of 7 percent in the first quarter, coupled with an 
inflation rate of only 1.6 percent.  Price hikes across the economy 
since the first of the year, coupled with a slowdown in consumer 
spending are likely to provide a very unfavorable comparison with 
last year when first quarter results are tabulated this spring. 
 
6. The coalition government of PM Ivo Sanader is likely to face many 
more difficulties on the economic front in 2008 than during his 
previous four year tenure.  Adding to this are the demands of his 
coalition partners for large spending increases in agricultural 
subsidies, the abolishment of health insurance co-payments and other 
commitments that could be difficult to reconcile with the 
government's promise of continued fiscal consolidation.  With a 
slowing economy, rising prices and lower government receipts, 
Sanader will have a more difficult time keeping economic policy on 
track, his coalition partners on board and the opposition at bay. 
 
BRADTKE