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Viewing cable 08TOKYO172, DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01/23/08

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08TOKYO172 2008-01-23 08:08 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXRO8607
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #0172/01 0230808
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230808Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1167
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 8037
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 5644
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 9308
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 4301
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 6249
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1247
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7314
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7960
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 000172 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01/23/08 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, MSDF Indian Ocean 
refueling mission, HCV relief legislation (Mainichi) 2 
 
(2) DPJ to submit counterproposal against government's budget bill 
(Mainichi) 3 
 
(3) Cabinet adopts legislation designed to maintain provisional 
gasoline tax rate to submit it to Diet in afternoon (Yomiuri) 4 
 
(4) U.S. force realignment splits city hosting base; Iwakuni mayoral 
election near at hand (Asahi) 5 
 
(5) The reason why Japan cannot dispatch GSDF troops (Sankei) 7 
 
(6) Global shares plunge: Impact of U.S. interest rate cut to be 
watched closely; Can a breakthrough be made as falling stock prices 
show no sign of hitting bottom? (Yomiuri) 8 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, MSDF Indian Ocean 
refueling mission, HCV relief legislation 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Full) 
January 21, 2008 
 
Questions & Answers 
(T = total; P = previous; M = male; F = female) 
 
Q: Do you support the Fukuda cabinet? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 33 (33) 31 35 
No 45 (44) 54 37 
Not interested 18 (21) 13 23 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the above question) Why? 
 
 T P M F 
Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 27 
(22) 28 26 
Because something can be expected of the prime minister's leadership 
9 (11) 6 10 
Because there's something stable about the prime minister 36 (37) 37 
36 
Because something can be expected of the prime minister's policy 
measures 21 (13) 22 20 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the above question) Why? 
 
 T P M F 
Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 9 
(12) 9 10 
Because nothing can be expected of the prime minister's leadership 
29 (28) 27 32 
Because there's no fresh image about the prime minister 10 (8) 10 
10 
Because nothing can be expected of the prime minister's policies 50 
(40) 53 46 
 
 
TOKYO 00000172  002 OF 010 
 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
 T P M F 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 28 (26) 26 29 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 24 (27) 28 20 
New Komeito (NK) 5 (4) 4 6 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 3 (3) 3 3 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 2 (1) 1 2 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 1 (0) 1 0 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (0) 0 -- 
Other political parties 0 (1) 1 0 
None 37 (35) 36 37 
 
Q: The Diet has now enacted a new antiterrorism special measures 
law, under which Japan will resume the Maritime Self-Defense Force's 
refueling activities for foreign naval vessels in the Indian Ocean. 
Do you support this action? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 47  50 45 
No 42  46 39 
 
Q: The ruling coalition passed the new antiterror legislation in a 
second vote of the House of Representatives with a majority of 
two-thirds after it was voted down in the House of Councillors. Do 
you think this way of passing a bill is appropriate? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 46  50 42 
No 44  47 42 
 
Q: The ruling coalition may pass budget-related bills and other 
legislative measures in a second vote of the House of 
Representatives with a majority of two-thirds. Do you support this? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 38  38 38 
No 51  57 45 
 
Q: The DPJ did not introduce a censure motion against Prime Minister 
Fukuda over the new antiterror law's enactment in a second vote. Do 
you think this decision was appropriate? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 48  54 43 
No 35  39 31 
 
Q: In the wake of class-action lawsuits instituted against the 
government by hepatitis C victims who contracted the disease from 
government-approved blood products, the Diet has enacted a law to 
provide across-the-board relief to all hepatitis C victims. The 
government has failed to reach a settlement on this HCV issue, so 
lawmakers initiated legislation to help them out. Do you appreciate 
Prime Minister Fukuda for his decision over this issue? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 58  57 60 
No 35  40 30 
 
(Note) Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. "0" indicates that 
the figure was below 0.5 PERCENT . "--" denotes that no respondents 
answered. "No answer" omitted. Figures in parentheses denote the 
 
TOKYO 00000172  003 OF 010 
 
 
results of the last survey conducted Dec. 15-16. 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Jan. 19-20 over the 
telephone across the nation on a computer-aided random digit 
sampling (RDS) basis. Answers were obtained from 1,031 persons. 
 
(2) DPJ to submit counterproposal against government's budget bill 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Abridged) 
January 23, 2008 
 
Daisuke Kondo 
 
The major opposition Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) Budget 
Research Council yesterday shaped a bill to change the previous 
functions of budget as a counterproposal against the government's 
budget bill. The DPJ plans to introduce its bill in the current 
ordinary session of the Diet. In advancing debates on budget-related 
bills, including the one related to the provisional tax rate for 
special revenue sources, the DPJ intends to prod the government to 
dissolve the Lower House for a snap general election. The DPJ's bill 
presents a broad overview of the budget it would draft if it comes 
to power. It also contains the procedures for securing fiscal 
resources for the DPJ's key policies related to, for instance, 
agriculture and child allowances. It also takes on an aspect of 
being a pre-manifesto for the next Lower House election. 
 
Budgetary handouts rejected 
 
The DPJ's bill specifies financial sources for five key policies as 
mentioned in its manifesto used for the latest Upper House election, 
for instance, family income compensation and child allowances shall 
be secured. 
 
Family income compensation and child allowances both require a vast 
amount of financial burden with the former one trillion yen and 
latter 4.8 trillion yen. So, the government and the ruling bloc are 
criticizing this policy as being unrealistic and just dole-outs. To 
deal with that criticism, the DPJ indicates in its bill seven 
specific steps for securing fiscal sources, one of which is in 
principle to review special accounts. 
 
Establishment of debt management agency 
 
In order to counter the criticism that the DPJ's policy is 
pork-barrel largesse, the party specifies measures toward achieving 
fiscal soundness. Particularly on primary balance, the DPJ's bill 
expressly stipulates that a primary balance surplus shall be 
achieved by fiscal 2011. As part of this effort, the bill states a 
debt management agency shall be established to manage and make clear 
the state's assets and debts. In order for budget to be compiled 
under political leadership, the bill specifies that the work of 
budget-compilation be transferred from the Finance Ministry to the 
Cabinet Office. 
 
Main points of the DPJ's bill 
 
Fundamental philosophy: Promote the achievement of primary balance; 
and aim to achieve a primary balance surplus by 2011 
 
Key policies: Integrate the public pension programs into one system; 
expand child-rearing allowances; creating an income compensation 
 
TOKYO 00000172  004 OF 010 
 
 
system for individual farmers; reform the subsidies system for local 
public entities; and expand help to small and medium-sized firms 
 
Principles for expenditure cut: Curtail costs of public procurement; 
drastically review public works projects; drastically review the 
reform of special public corporations; abolish in principle special 
account; curb the total personnel costs for civil servants employed 
by government; review special tax measures; and make good use of 
government assets. 
 
How to compile budget: Establish a debt management agency; create a 
budget under the cabinet's leadership 
 
(3) Cabinet adopts legislation designed to maintain provisional 
gasoline tax rate to submit it to Diet in afternoon 
 
YOMIURI NET (Excerpts) 
13:18, January 23, 2008 
 
The government adopted at an ad hoc cabinet meeting this morning tax 
reform-related bills, including one to revise the Special Taxation 
Measures Law. 
 
The government will submit them to the House of Representatives this 
afternoon. The bill amending the Special Taxation Measures Law is 
intended to maintain the provisional tax rates, including the 
gasoline tax. If it fails to clear the Diet by the end of March, 
gasoline prices will drop and the central and local governments' tax 
revenues will also decline. Although the government and ruling 
parties are aiming to enact it within the current fiscal year, the 
major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) intends 
to oppose it. Diet deliberations on the bill are expected to face 
rough going. 
 
At the ad hoc cabinet meeting, Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga 
said: "The bill is directly connected with the people's livelihood. 
A failure to enact it before the end of this fiscal year would have 
grave impacts on the people's day-to-day lives as well as on 
economic activities. It must be enacted within this fiscal year." 
 
Unless the bill amending the Special Taxation Measures Law is 
enacted before March 31, the provisional tax rates that are added to 
the regular gasoline tax and other taxes will be eliminated, and as 
a result, the gasoline price, for instance, will drop by 25.1 yen 
per liter starting in April. At the same time, it will be tax 
increases in some cases. For instance, corporate tax breaks for 
small- and mid-sized companies that made capital investment will be 
eliminated. 
 
Dubbing the current Diet session the "gasoline Diet," the DPJ is 
calling for the abolition of the provisional tax rates. In the 
meantime, the government and ruling parties are aiming to enact the 
legislation before March 31, saying that (the elimination of the 
provisional tax rates) will reduce the tax revenues for the central 
and local governments and increased gasoline consumption will have 
an adverse effect on the environment. 
 
The DPJ asked the gasoline tax part be separated from the 
legislation, but the government and ruling coalition rejected it and 
decided to submit it some 10 days earlier than usual with the aim of 
enacting it within the current fiscal year. Although some Upper 
House LDP members are calling for the bill's passage of the Lower 
 
TOKYO 00000172  005 OF 010 
 
 
House within January, the party leadership intends to send it to the 
upper chamber around mid-February, thinking that an inappropriate 
step would throw the Diet into turmoil. 
 
(4) U.S. force realignment splits city hosting base; Iwakuni mayoral 
election near at hand 
 
ASAHI (Page 2) (Abridged) 
January 20, 2008 
 
The official campaign for the February 10 Iwakuni mayoral election 
will kick off on Feb. 3. The relocation of a carrier-based air wing 
to the U.S. air station in the city is the top campaign issue. The 
race is expected to be a duel between former mayor Katsusuke Ihara, 
57, who is opposed to the relocation, and Liberal Democratic Party 
House of Representatives member Yoshihiko Fukuda, 37, who is backed 
by pro-relocation municipal assemblymen and others. Although the 
Ministry of Defense (MOD) intends to push ahead with the relocation 
plan regardless of the outcome of the election, the Prime Minister's 
Official Residence (Kantei), which is searching for a way to elicit 
talks on base issues in Okinawa, fears that the conflict with local 
residents in Iwakuni will intensify, too. 
 
At a rally on the afternoon of Jan. 19, Ihara, appearing before some 
1,700 people, said: 
 
"The number of U.S. aircraft will double, and no explanation can 
dispel our concerns about noise, accidents, and crimes. Placing high 
priority on relations with the United States, the government is 
trying to unilaterally force this plan on us." 
 
The government has frozen subsidies totaling 3.5 billion yen for 
building a new Iwakuni city hall due to Ihara's opposition to the 
plan. Ihara criticized the government's step as "unbelievably 
aggressive." 
 
The Fukuda camp, opening a campaign office at around the same time, 
also held a rally near the major tourist attraction Kintai Bridge. 
Before some 800 people, Fukuda stressed: "Iwakuni's economy is 
depressed. I will turn Iwakuni into a city that is comfortable to 
live in." 
 
The point at issue is clear: whether to reject the relocation plan 
by placing high priority on making citizens feel secure and safe, or 
to accept the plan in order to elicit financial support from the 
government. 
 
Ihara has always been tolerant of the base itself. The government 
announced the subsidies for building a city hall in return for 
accepting air tankers from Futenma Air Station by Ihara's 
predecessor. Ihara has never objected to the relocation from 
Futenma. 
 
But he said 'no' to the relocation of the carrier-based air wing, 
because that would double the number of aircraft at the Iwakuni 
base, turning it into a major air base in the Far East on par with 
Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. Ihara's stance further stiffened with 
the government's decision to freeze the subsidies for the planned 
city hall. "The government is trying to control us by using the 
carrot-and-stick approach," Ihara said. 
 
Ihara's reaction drew fire from the predominantly pro-relocation 
 
TOKYO 00000172  006 OF 010 
 
 
city assembly. The assembly voted down four times the budgetary 
bills designed to fund the construction cost with other financial 
sources. Their view is that the city should accept the relocation 
plan and obtain the subsidies. 
 
Two years ago, Ihara initiated a local referendum, in which he 
successfully extracted popular will overwhelmingly opposed to the 
relocation. Ihara also submitted his resignation on December 26, the 
day he presented the municipal assembly with a budget bill for the 
fifth time, only to announce his candidacy for the mayoral race 
later in the day. 
 
His aim is to press the municipal assembly for change on the 
strength of "new popular will" and say 'no' to the central 
government with the assembly. 
Ihara said at the rally that if he was elected and the conflict with 
the assembly still continued, he could recall the assembly. 
 
Fukuda, in accepting the relocation, said, "I will cooperate for the 
sake of U.S. force realignment." With Ihara's strategy of playing up 
popular will in mind, Fukuda is also trying to present himself as a 
person determined to take solid measures against noise, telling 
people, "I will not be at the beck and call of the central 
government." Assemblymen tolerant of the relocation plan have often 
held small meetings in which they repeatedly asked, "Should the city 
take a pragmatic approach and open a bright future, or take the path 
toward bankruptcy?" One even said: "I am ready to quit as an 
assemblyman." 
 
MOD: There will be absolutely no change 
 
Immediately after the Iwakuni mayoral race was set late last year, 
Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masahiro Futahashi grilled a senior 
MOD official over the deeply complicated base issue. 
 
Futahashi's discontent comes from the belief that MOD's subsidy 
policy as part of the carrot-and-stick approach under the former 
Koizumi and Abe administrations has stiffened the stance of 
municipalities opposed to increased base burdens. 
 
Last October, Ihara asked the government to set up a venue to 
discuss matters, including a resumption of the subsidies. But MOD 
said that it would comply with the request only if he was willing to 
accept the relocation. This further strained the relationship 
between the two. 
 
The government, clearly deciding to take a dialogue approach toward 
Okinawa, resumed talks with the affected municipalities after a 
lapse of 10 months. But toward Iwakuni, it keeps a stern attitude, 
with one MOD official saying: "The situations between Okinawa and 
Iwakuni are completely different." 
 
In order to implement the Futenma relocation plan, landfill for 
airfield construction requires authorization of the governor, so the 
government needs to obtain the concurrence of the affected 
municipalities as well. In contrast, Iwakuni mayor does not have the 
authority to stop the relocation project. The Kantei thinks Iwakuni 
is less important than the Futenma relocation that will be 
implemented in exchange for moving 8,000 U.S. Marines to Guam. Even 
if the Iwakuni remains opposed to the relocation, U.S. force 
realignment can move forward. "There will be no change to the 
realignment project even if Mr. Ihara wins the race," a MOD official 
 
TOKYO 00000172  007 OF 010 
 
 
said. 
 
(5) The reason why Japan cannot dispatch GSDF troops 
 
SANKEI (Page 7) (Excerpts) 
January 23, 2008 
 
By Hiroshi Yuasa, Tokyo 
 
The situation in Afghanistan, which has now become the main 
battlefield in the war on terror, is far severer than that in Iraq. 
Signs of revival of Islamic Taliban militants have begun to appear 
centering on the snow-covered mountainous areas near the Pakistani 
border. Although President Karzai has been able to maintain his 
administration due to his ability to raise funds from the 
international community, funds into the country have been dwindling. 
The end of the flow of money might be the end of love. 
 
In 2006, the feeble administration smoothed over past crimes by 
military cliques in the name of national reconciliation, pardoning 
the outlaws who had been involved in torturing and slaughtering 
during the Taliban era and giving cabinet portfolios to bloody 
warlords. The stable situation in Afghanistan began deteriorating 
that year. 
 
At present, 40,000 NATO-led multinational troops are deployed in 
Afghanistan. The figure, which is quite small for maintaining law 
and order in the country, includes 14, 000 troops from the United 
States. Washington has decided to send an additional 3,200 troops to 
be prepared against the offensive this spring. 
 
A variety of information is flying about, such as that Canadian 
troops are having a hard time in the Taliban's old heartland of 
Kandahar, or that seven Taliban militants have entered the inland 
city of Bamiyan. 
 
Having suffered tremendously in civil wars, the Afghan people tend 
to take the side of forces with power in order to live. 
 
Meanwhile in Japan, the government presented a bill to resume the 
refueling operation in the Indian Ocean and the Democratic Party of 
Japan submitted a bill to send ground troops. After many twist and 
turns, the House of Representatives readopted the 
government-sponsored bill in the end. It was the right decision. 
 
The DPJ-sponsored legislation was designed to limit support 
activities to the civilian sector after a ceasefire agreement is 
reached and to areas where no Afghan people sustained damage. 
Foreign Minister Masahiko Koumura is not the only one who thinks 
specifying safe areas is difficult. 
 
Unlike in the southern Iraqi city of Samawah, there are no troops 
from the Netherlands or Britain to defend Ground Self-Defense Force 
troops in Afghanistan. Already 117 persons from Britain, Canada and 
the Netherlands have died. The presence of troops not allowed to 
take combat action would only be a drag. Sending out ground troops 
requires sufficient equipment, permission for combat, and the 
preparedness to result in loss of life. 
 
What does Japan want to do in Afghanistan? -- This was the question 
posed to me by Yukari Ota of the UN Afghan mine support center, who 
was temporarily back in Japan. Stationed in 2004 at a local office 
 
TOKYO 00000172  008 OF 010 
 
 
in northern Afghanistan, Ota endeavored for the dismantlement of 
military cliques. Currently she is serving as the center's special 
assistant in the country's capital of Kabul. 
 
"Fostering a tribal society into a nation state is extremely 
difficult. It takes decades instead of a couple of years. Troops 
from major countries are aiming at 'reconstruction.' What is Japan's 
aim?" 
 
Japan does not have any desire to dispatch combat troops. Sending 
the Maritime Self-Defense Force's supply ship and destroyer to 
support multilateral forces in the Indian Ocean is just the right 
step for such a country. An MSDF destroyer will depart from the 
Yokosuka base on Jan. 24 and a supply ship from the Sasebo base on 
Jan. 25. 
 
(6) Global shares plunge: Impact of U.S. interest rate cut to be 
watched closely; Can a breakthrough be made as falling stock prices 
show no sign of hitting bottom? 
 
YOMIURI (Page 3) (Excerpts) 
January 23, 2008 
 
Falling prices on the stock market are showing no sign of hitting 
bottom. Tokyo stocks yesterday plunged for the second straight day. 
Stock prices also tumbled in the markets of newly emerging countries 
in Asia. The impact of the U.S. subprime loan crisis is increasingly 
becoming serious. The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) yesterday further 
lowered the interest rate as an emergency measure, but the New York 
Stock Exchange opened broadly lower. In Japan, the impact of the 
subprime loan fiasco is becoming a real possibility. Moves on the 
Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) today are drawing attention. 
 
Blow on Japanese economy could become real possibility 
 
The Nikkei Stock Average dropped 1,288 points in two days. A male 
company employee in his 60s complained, "Since the speed of the fall 
is too fast, it's hard to find the right timing to sell off my 
stocks. I took part in many lecture meetings, but half of the 
projections analysts made were not wrong." 
 
BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui held a press conference at the BOJ head 
office at 3:30 p.m. yesterday. He indicated a sense of alarm, 
noting, "Investors are increasingly avoiding taking risks. The 
subprime loan flap could have a negative impact on the Japanese 
economy through consumers' sentiment." 
 
Optimism disappears 
 
Disappointment at U.S. President Bush's economic stimulus package 
worth up to 150 billion dollars (approximately 16 trillion yen), 
released on Jan. 18, has triggered the global stock plunges. The 
prevailing market response to the package is that tax breaks will 
not lead to a fundamental settlement of the subprime risk and the 
proposed size is also insufficient, which has given rise to 
U.S.-induced global stock falls. A chain reaction of stock market 
plunges spread from the U.S., Europe, Japan and to Asia, forcing the 
FRB to lower the interest rate as an emergency measure. 
 
Among stock markets in Asian countries, the stock price index in 
Hong Kong fell more than 8 PERCENT , compared with the level of the 
previous day. The Mumbai market in India was forced to close 
 
TOKYO 00000172  009 OF 010 
 
 
temporarily. 
 
There was a media report noting that the Bank of China, China's four 
major state-run commercial banks, will report huge amounts of 
deficits sustained by the subprime loan fiasco, leading to a view 
that the decoupling theory that even if the economics of advanced 
countries slow, it can be covered with high growth of newly emerging 
economies has been smashed, as Takeshi Segawa of Shinko Securities 
noted. 
 
U.S. stocks moved in an unstable manner, plummeting and then 
slightly recovering, after the FRB lowered the interest rate. 
Tsuyoshi Nomaguchi of Daiwa Securities warned, "If the U.S. fails to 
 
SIPDIS 
stop its economy from slowing, the impact of the subprime loan 
calamity is bound to be felt by Japanese and Asian markets as 
well." 
 
Corporate performances, consumption could lose steam 
 
Growing concern 
 
Concern about Japanese companies' performances deteriorating has 
grown due to major stock price falls, which nobody had expected at 
the end of last year. 
 
The electronic appliances industry, which hopes to see expanded 
sales of flat-screen TVs with the Beijing Olympic Games close at 
hand in August, is becoming nervous about stock prices, which do not 
show any sign of hitting bottom. A Victor Co. of Japan source noted, 
"Audio visual devices are for highly personal favorite pursuit. We 
are especially concerned that consumers might lose buying motives 
due to the low stock prices." 
 
Toyota Motors, which has increased sales on the brisk overseas 
markets, cannot afford not to take notice of the impact of the 
stumbling stock prices. Its estimated sales volume in the US is 2.64 
million units, up 1 PERCENT  from the preceding year, and 700,000 
units in China, up 40 PERCENT . However, one related industrial 
source pointed out, "If the economies of both countries cool off, 
even Toyota would suffer a major blow." 
 
Naoko Kamiyama of Morgan Stanley said, "If Japanese companies 
project a profit decline in the fiscal 2008 settlement of accounts, 
stock prices could fall further." 
 
According to Hideo Kumano of the Dai-ichi Live Insurance Economic 
Research Center, latent profits of stocks held by the six major 
financial groups as of Jan. 22 had shrunk from approximately 8.1 
trillion yen, marked at the end of September 2007, to approximately 
3.4 trillion yen. Some life insurers appear to have sustained latent 
losses. 
 
Personal consumption 
 
Stock plunges have begun to deal a blow to consumer spending. An 
increase in the prices of various consumption goods caused by 
soaring crude oil prices is affecting people's lives. Seibu 
Department Stores noted that sales of high-prices goods, such as 
jewelry, are slowing. 
 
Toshifumi Suzuki, chairman of Seven and I Holdings said, "Stock 
plunges are having a significant psychological impact. Consumers 
 
TOKYO 00000172  010 OF 010 
 
 
will tighten their purse strings. 
 
Low stock prices could dampen spring wage negotiations as well. The 
top leaders of the Japan Business Federation (Nippon Keidanren) and 
the Japanese Trade Union Confederation will meet today, marking a 
practical start of the spring wage battle for 2008. Nippon Keidanren 
has shown a positive stance toward the idea of raising wages, but 
now they are increasingly becoming cautious about it. 
 
The trade union's side underscored that consumption would not be 
boosted without pay raises. However, the growth scenario of 
full-fledged recovery of consumption, backed by recovered wages, 
will likely be derailed. 
 
SCHIEFFER