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Viewing cable 08HAMBURG1, CDU/FDP COALITION LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN LOWER SAXONY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08HAMBURG1 2008-01-23 16:41 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Hamburg
VZCZCXRO9178
PP RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHAG #0001/01 0231641
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231641Z JAN 08
FM AMCONSUL HAMBURG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0204
INFO RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 0187
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHAG/AMCONSUL HAMBURG 0224
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HAMBURG 000001 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/AGS 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: CDU/FDP COALITION LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN LOWER SAXONY 
 
REF: A. A)  BERLIN 086 
 
     B. B)  BERLIN 022 
     C. C)  06 HAMBURG 065 
 
HAMBURG 00000001  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION 
 
Summary 
 
1. (SBU):  Barring surprise political developments, the current 
CDU/FDP government will likely prevail in Lower Saxony's state 
elections on January 27 due to an apparent desire by Lower 
Saxony's voters for a continuation of the status quo.  Our 
interlocutors agreed that the minimum wage issue will continue 
to be a campaign topic up to the Bundestag elections in 2009. 
However, the SPD's minimum wage campaign has only translated 
into a marginal increase of support for the Lower Saxony SPD. 
Meanwhile, there was consensus among our interlocutors that The 
Left party would not likely enter parliament.  A CDU/FDP victory 
would come as good news to Chancellor Merkel's CDU, which faces 
difficult state-level election campaigns in Hessen and Hamburg 
in January and February.  The results of these three early-2008 
state elections will be a barometer of the nation's political 
mood as the Germany heads to national elections in 2009.  END 
Summary. 
 
CDU/FDP LIKELY TO WIN 
 
2. (SBU) In polls from Lower Saxony reported on January 18, the 
CDU was at 46 percent, the SPD at 33 percent, the Greens at 7 
percent, the FDP at 7 percent, and The Left at 5 percent.  CDU 
State Parliament Caucus Leader David McAllister was confident 
that a CDU/FDP coalition with Christian Wulff as Minister 
President would continue to govern Lower Saxony.  FDP State 
Parliament Caucus Leader Philipp Roesler remarked to poloff that 
people in Lower Saxony are basically satisfied and are not 
calling for change.  He was confident that the CDU/FDP 
government would be re-elected.  He even expressed worries that 
the CDU might gain an absolute majority, which would enable it 
to govern without a coalition partner.  McAllister noted that 
there are few notable political issues being discussed and that 
the CDU has chosen to focus on Wulff's personal popularity. 
Touching on the heated debate on youth delinquency sparked by 
Hesse CDU Minister-President Roland Koch, McAllister stated: 
"Luckily, Wulff is not Koch," clarifying though that the 
difference is more stylistic than substantive.  Wulff is 
generally regarded to have a more moderate "Merkel-like" style 
than the more aggressive Koch. 
 
MINIMUM WAGE DEBATE IS HERE TO STAY 
 
3. (SBU) All party representatives agreed that the minimum wage 
issue needed to be resolved, but that ultimately, a decision 
could only be reached at the national level.  They pointed out 
that the issue is here to stay in the political landscape, and 
expect it to be a central theme in the 2009 Bundestag elections. 
 McAllister expressed some relief that the minimum wage had not 
become as strong of an issue in Lower Saxony as the CDU had 
first feared when the SPD brought it up.  The SPD's main 
candidate Wolfgang Juettner had announced that the SPD would 
collect hundreds of thousands of signatures in support of a 
minimum wage, but McAllister had not seen much progress in the 
campaign.  He suspected that the SPD announced the campaign in 
order to prevent The Left party from campaigning with it.  SPD 
Parliamentary Director Dieter Moehrmann admitted that while 70 
percent of those polled are in favor of a minimum wage, the SPD 
only gained about two percent since it had become a campaign 
issue. 
 
NO FOOTHOLD FOR THE LEFT IN RURAL AREAS 
 
4. (SBU) CDU, SPD, FDP, and Greens agreed that The Left party is 
unlikely to reach the five percent hurdle in Lower Saxony 
because its message has not resonated in the state's 
conservative rural areas.  (Note:  More than three quarters of 
Lower Saxony's approximately eight million inhabitants live in 
rural areas.  End Note.)  Moehrmann pointed out that The Left in 
Lower Saxony also lacks a popular front runner and well-known 
top candidate.  Another factor potentially hurting The Left is 
negative press about unprofessional conduct and conflict among 
The Left in Bremen, where the party entered parliament in May 
2007.  Also, the SPD and Greens have firmly distanced themselves 
from a potential coalition with or "tolerated" by The Left. 
 
COMMENT 
 
5. (SBU) This election shows that the SPD has little room for 
maneuvering between the CDU and The Left party.  In our meeting 
with Moehrmann on January 11, his first comment was that the 
"CDU steals our issues."  Further, the SPD's attempt to 
politicize the minimum wage debate has not won them the votes 
that they hoped it would.  Moehrmann ruled out a coalition with 
 
HAMBURG 00000001  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
The Left at any level as long as Oskar Lafontaine leads the 
party.  Roesler remarked that perhaps Juettner's most important 
achievement in this election will be keeping The Left out of 
parliament.  Nevertheless, as McAllister commented, a poor 
showing by the SPD in the Hessen, Lower Saxony, and Hamburg 
elections would have serious ramifications for national SPD 
party chairman Kurt Beck, who needs to show electoral success in 
order to validate his current focus on economic justice or 
populism.  END COMMENT. 
 
6. (U) This message has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
JOHNSON