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Viewing cable 08DUBLIN44, TOUGH CAMPAIGN AHEAD FOR EU REFORM TREATY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08DUBLIN44 2008-01-24 14:21 2011-07-22 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Dublin
VZCZCXRO0271
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
DE RUEHDL #0044/01 0241421
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241421Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8855
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000044 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI
SUBJECT: TOUGH CAMPAIGN AHEAD FOR EU REFORM TREATY 
 
REFERENDUM IN IRELAND 
 
REF: 07 DUBLIN 849 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert J. Faucher; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The Director of the EU Division at the 
Irish Department of Foreign Affairs is optimistic that the EU 
Reform Treaty referendum will pass in 2008, but not without a 
robust campaign by Treaty supporters.  While there will be a 
lot of rhetoric and hand-wringing in coming months, we agree 
that the result should be a "Yes" vote.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U) During her visit to Ireland January 18, EUR/WE Office 
Director Kathy Allegrone met with Department of Foreign 
Affairs Director General, European Union Division, Daniel 
Mulhall to discuss the EU Reform Treaty referendum (Reftel). 
(Note: Ireland is the only EU member state to require a 
national referendum to approve the Treaty.  The Irish 
government continues to insist that the Treaty be referred to 
as the "Reform" rather than the "Lisbon" Treaty because it 
believes the tag "reform" resonates more effectively with the 
Irish public.  End note.)  Mulhall began by pointing out the 
huge benefit -- over 57 billion euro ($83.3 billion) -- 
Ireland (a nation of 4.2 million people) has received from 
the EU since joining in 1973.  He noted that Ireland has 
spent the money wisely and will soon become a net contributor 
to EU coffers. 
 
3.  (C) Nonetheless, Mulhall said, euro-skepticism has crept 
into the political landscape.  People are starting to forget 
what Ireland's economy was like before it joined the EU, he 
mused.  (Note: Ireland has one of the youngest populations in 
the EU; in 2006 two-thirds of Ireland's population was under 
45.)  Some people, he said, are worried about increasing 
globalization, immigration, and drift toward a more 
federalized EU, and would like to put on the brakes.  He 
noted that current opponents of the Reform Treaty -- most 
notably Libertas, a newly formed European movement against 
the Treaty -- are much more sophisticated than past foes. 
Libertas, for example, he said, purports to be pro-EU and 
pro-buisness, but anti-Treaty, feeding on fears that Ireland 
will become burdened by an excessive concentration of power 
in Brussels, increasing EU bureaucracy and regulation, lack 
of EU accountability and transparency, and a loss of its 
traditional military neutrality through military 
centralization in Brussels.  (Note: Libertas, which appears 
well organized, recently announced funding for a program to 
deliver a "No" leaflet to every household in Ireland.  End 
note.) 
 
4.  (SBU) Mulhall anticipated that the Treaty campaign would 
be tricky, saying that those in favor of the Treaty would 
have to counter the sophisticated, credible arguments of 
opponents and remind the Irish populace of the great benefits 
to be realized from continued cooperation with the EU.  At 
the moment, Mulhall said, the Irish people have not thought 
much about the Treaty.  He pointed out a January 2008 poll, 
which indicated that only four percent of the members of the 
Irish Small and Medium Enterprises Association felt they had 
enough information about the Treaty and only 12 percent said 
they would vote in favor of the Treaty today.  Mulhall noted 
that the opponents of the Treaty are currently much more 
vocal and energetic than Treaty supporters.  However, he 
predicted that Irish public opinion would crystallize in 
favor of the Treaty as the "Yes" campaign moved into high 
gear, especially among the "silent majority."  (Note: Most 
political observers expect the referendum to be held in May 
2008.  End note.) 
 
5.  (SBU)  Mulhall noted that there were some touchstone 
issues for the Irish that could affect the outcome of the 
referendum vote.  One, he indicated, was the EU Common 
Agricultural Policy, from which the Irish -- who hold tight 
to their agricultural heritage -- have benefited immensely. 
Any indication that the EU intended to reform the CAP before 
its next scheduled readjustment in 2014, Mulhall stated, 
would be anathema to the Irish public, as well as the 
government, and would play into the hands of Treaty opponents. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Mulhall noted that one difficulty for the "Yes" 
supporters would be actually getting out the vote on election 
day, saying that opponents of the Treaty would likely be more 
motivated to take the trouble to vote than supporters. 
Since, under Irish law the Government cannot campaign in 
favor of the Treaty, it is up to the governing coalition's 
political parties to fund a "Yes" vote campaign and get out 
the vote.  Mulhall said that the Treaty debate doesn't lend 
itself easily to traditional Irish politics, where candidates 
for office make great efforts to meet their constituents, 
including campaigning door-to-door.  He anticipated that 
there would be reluctance to campaign in the same way for the 
Treaty, which might reduce the effectiveness of the "Yes" 
 
DUBLIN 00000044  002 OF 002 
 
 
campaign. 
 
7.  (U) In the meantime, the Coalition Green Party was unable 
to muster enough support at a special convention on January 
19 to take a position in favor of the Treaty.  Though the 
Treaty is strongly supported by Green Party leadership, a 
two-thirds majority of those attending the convention was 
required to enable the party to campaign for the Treaty.  The 
vote was 63 percent in favor, leaving the Green Party 
officially neutral during the campaign and removing one 
source of political funding and support.  (Note: Thirteen 
additional votes would have been enough to push the party 
over the two-thirds hurdle.  End note.) 
 
8.  (C) Comment:  In the end, Mulhall was optimistic that the 
referendum would pass, saying that a "Yes" vote is needed so 
that the EU can get on with the normal business of serving 
the people of Europe.  He stated that a "No" result in the 
referendum, coupled with anticipated approval of the Treaty 
by all other 26 EU member states, would create a political 
crisis for Ireland.  Such an outcome, he predicted, would not 
unfold favorably for Ireland.  From our perspective, it's 
hard to fathom that the supporters of the Treaty will not win 
out.  The Green Party vote notwithstanding, all the major 
political parties -- including the Opposition -- support the 
Treaty.  The government, though required to be officially 
neutral by the Supreme Court, is in favor of the Treaty as 
well, and will be transmitting that message in subtle (and 
not so subtle) ways.  The startling result of the first 
referendum on the EU Nice Treaty in June 2001, which was 
defeated, should ensure a lack of complacency on the part of 
Treaty supporters.  While there will be a lot of rhetoric and 
hand-wringing in coming months, the result should be a "Yes" 
vote. 
 
FOLEY