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Viewing cable 08DARESSALAAM14, TANZANIA DECEMBER 2007 ECONOMIC ROUNDUP: EU TRADE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08DARESSALAAM14 2008-01-07 09:15 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Dar Es Salaam
R 070915Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7198
INFO AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 
AMEMBASSY KIGALI 
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS DAR ES SALAAM 000014 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT AF/E FOR JLIDDLE, ALSO FOR AF/EPS FOR ABREITER 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD TZ
SUBJECT: TANZANIA DECEMBER 2007 ECONOMIC ROUNDUP: EU TRADE 
AGREEMENT, GOVT BORROWING, GDP UP, COUNTERFEITS 
 
 
------------------------------- 
December 2007 Economic Issues 
------------------------------- 
 
1.  In this issue: 
-  Concerns on EU Trade Agreement 
-  Government Heavy Borrowing 
-  GDP on the Rise, Standard of Living Stagnant 
-  Counterfeit Mobile Phones Flood Shops 
 
 
------------------------------- 
Concerns on EU Trade Agreement 
------------------------------- 
 
2.  Following the signing of an interim trade framework agreement 
between member states of the East African Community (EAC) and the 
European Union, there is now a shift of focus to how the various 
sectors will adapt to the new realities.  Key among these is the 
financial sector, which includes commercial bank lending, 
microfinance lending, and increasingly, share trading at a primary 
level. 
 
3.  The first item on the agenda following the signing of the 
Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) framework was a clear 
reaffirmation of the EAC Customs Union framework.  Now EAC 
institutions--such as the Customs Union and the common market, which 
many EAC member countries previously viewed as optional---are 
becoming increasingly important.  Discussing various issues with 
newspaper editors, President Kikwete explained that the Ministry of 
Trade and Industry has been directed to start an awareness campaign 
of the parameters and significance of the EPA accord(s). 
 
4.  Tanzanian intellectuals, including University of Dar es Salaam 
professor, Mwesiga Baregu, are criticizing the Government of 
Tanzania (GOT) on its decision to accept the EPA, saying the 
agreement was misleading and will not benefit Tanzania or the other 
African countries supporting it. 
 
5.  Baregu also expressed skepticism over Foreign Affairs and 
International Cooperation Minister Bernard Membe's statement that 
Tanzania would join either the Southern African Development 
Community or East African Community economic partnership agreement, 
depending on which offered more to the nation.  Baregu stressed: "It 
should be understood that [the] EPA... diverts Africa's attention 
from its plans to unite Africa and its regional blocs... [The] EPA 
is something planted by EU in Africa [that] has no meaning to Africa 
at all."  Baregu said if Tanzania or Africa wants an economic 
relationship with the EU then it has to be a mutually beneficial 
agreement.  "That relationship has to be built anew with regard to 
the basics of Africa, not otherwise," he said. 
 
6.  Ernst and Young submitted two reports on the Bank of Tanzania's 
(BoT's) External Account on December 23, 2007: one on the Economic 
Partnership Account (EPA) and the other on a review of the 2005/6 
audited accounts.  The Controller and Auditor General said he is 
reviewing the reports and will submit them to President Kikwete in 
early January 2008. 
 
 
---------------------------- 
Government heavy borrowing: 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  GOT officials cite heavy government borrowing from domestic 
financial institutions in the last quarter as one of the chief 
causes of rising commodity and service prices.  The Bank of Tanzania 
(BoT) October report indicates that inflation rose from 7.8 per cent 
in August to 8.3 in September 2007.  Pressure on the inflation rate 
is building up against the backdrop of an increase in the government 
deficit.  The BoT report shows that of the Tsh 346.9 billion total 
resources that were made available for government budgetary 
operations during August 2007, Tsh 276 billion were from domestic 
revenues and Tsh 70.9 billion came from grants from development 
partners. 
 
8.  The BoT report shows that during the month of August the 
government financed the deficit by borrowing Tsh 359.9 billion from 
foreign sources while in September the deficit was financed by 
borrowing Tsh 65.7 billion from both domestic and foreign sources. 
Domestic borrowing is carried out mainly through the sale of 
government papers, like Treasury bills and bonds. 
 
9.  According to the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI), the 
inflation rate for November 2007 went up because some prices of both 
food and non-food items had increased, especially in the categories 
of soft drinks, mineral water and alcohol.  The prices of food items 
including rice, maize grain, maize flour, wheat flour, bread, 
spaghetti, cassava, potatoes, cooking bananas, vegetables, meat, 
cooking oil and coconuts, are also on the rise.  The prices of 
certain non-food items including clothing, furniture, hair creams, 
bicycles, car batteries and umbrellas have also increased.  The 
increase in prices of essential items caused public concern and 
skepticism over the government's figure for the current inflation 
rate (currently between 7.1 and 7.3 percent). 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
GDP on the Rise, Standard of Living Stagnant: 
Whither the benefits of economic growth? 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
10.  Dr. Ngasongwa, the Minister for Planning, Economy and 
Empowerment, painted a rosy picture about the country's economic 
performance on December 20, 2007.  He noted, for example, that while 
the current average Gross Domestic Product growth for African 
countries stands at 5.5 percent, Tanzanian's projected performance 
at the end of the current fiscal year (June 30, 2008) is 7.3 
percent.  While the country's economy is growing, the growth is yet 
to be reflected in the people's standard of living. 
 
11.  Ngasongwa noted that while the inflation rate is currently 
ranging between 7.1 and 7.3 percent, there are indicators that it is 
going down and may settle at around 6.8 percent by the end of this 
fiscal year.  The country's foreign reserves are enough to 
facilitate importation of goods for about 5 months.  The 
contribution of the agricultural sector to the economy has declined 
as the contribution of other sectors to the GDP continues to rise. 
 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Counterfeit Mobile Phones Flood Shops 
-------------------------------------- 
 
12.  Tanzania is considered among the countries in Sub Saharan 
Africa with highest number of mobile phone subscribers.  This may be 
partially attributed to counterfeit cell phones that are imported or 
smuggled into the country, mainly from the Far East, and sold at 
much prices much lower than the market price of brand-name mobile 
handsets.  The number of mobile phone subscribers has gone up from 
two million in 2004 to almost eight million by November 2007.  The 
GoT alleges that in most cases the fake mobile handsets are ordered 
by the importers, who take samples to China and have them 
reproduced. 
 
13.  The Fair Competition Commission has initiated amendments to the 
outdated Merchandise Marks Act, which provides the legal framework 
for handling counterfeits.  The amendments provide for the 
appointment by the Minister of Trade of a Chief Inspector to conduct 
investigations into suspected importers or shops. 
 
 
GREEN