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Viewing cable 08BUENOSAIRES19, Argentine Summer Electricity Shortages: GoA Rolls Out

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BUENOSAIRES19 2008-01-04 16:58 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Buenos Aires
VZCZCXYZ0007
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0019/01 0041658
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041658Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0006
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000019 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AR ECON ENRG
SUBJECT: Argentine Summer Electricity Shortages: GoA Rolls Out 
Modest Conservation Program 
 
Ref: (A) 2007 Buenos Aires 1892 
 
     (B) 2007 Buenos Aires 1819 
     (C) 2007 Buenos Aires 1726 
     (D) 2007 Buenos Aires 1456 
     (E) 2007 Buenos Aires 1415 
 
This cable contains sensitive information - not for internet 
distribution. 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) The Greater Buenos Aires metropolitan area has begun to 
experience electricity cuts as overloaded distribution systems 
fail in the face of hot summer weather and high air conditioning 
loads on the electricity distribution grid. Resulting 
neighborhood protests have received wide media coverage.  Summer 
electricity shortages have been widely predicted due to GoA- 
controlled electricity prices held at levels that have deterred 
new private investment in electricity generation and 
distribution infrastructure, including by U.S. energy major AES 
which has substantial assets here.  The GoA has rolled out a 
modest energy conservation scheme that includes daylight savings 
time changes, rationalizing energy usage in public buildings and 
subsidies to encourage consumer use of energy efficient bulbs. 
Local analysts agree that the GoA program will fall far short of 
its goal of saving up to 1,000 MW/day, but they call it a 
welcome GoA acknowledgement that steps must be taken to shore up 
an inadequate and deteriorating national electricity 
infrastructure.  Public anger at recent energy disruptions may 
grow as summer dog days set in.  But, despite growing criticism 
of the GoA's short-sighted approach to energy planning, the 
Kirchner administration appears positioned to weather this 
crisis: the still-booming economy trumps all, and energy 
shortages are not expected to constrain industrial production 
during the slack January/February summer vacation season. 
End Summary 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Predicted Shortfalls: Insufficient Infrastructure Investment 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
2. (SBU) With the advent of hot summer weather and high air 
conditioning loads on the electricity system, the greater Buenos 
Aires metropolitan area has begun to experience electricity and 
water cuts as overloaded distribution systems fail.  With many 
government officials, including the President, on vacation in 
the post new year period, political news is slack and television 
and print media have devoted considerable coverage to popular 
protests against electricity cuts in the streets of Buenos Aires 
neighborhoods. These electricity shortages have been widely 
predicted by energy analysts who emphasize that GoA-controlled 
electricity prices are being held at levels that deter new 
investment by private sector electricity generation and 
distribution companies. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
U.S. Company Perspective: AES in Argentina 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3.(SBU)  U.S. energy major AES operates 6 hydro and gas-fired 
power plants in Argentina (12% of national installed capacity) 
and also owns two electricity distribution companies in the 
province of Buenos Aires which provide energy to more than 
450,000 customers. In a January 3 meeting with Ambassador, AES 
explained that, as a direct consequence of GoA price controls, 
its Argentine generation activities earn only $30 per megawatt 
hour (MwH), while generators in Brazil average $80 per MwH and 
those in Chile average $100 MwH.  AES complains that these low 
rates paid to generators by GoA-controlled electricity wholesale 
distributor CAMMESA cover only variable costs and provide no/no 
incentive to invest in new capacity.  Further, CAMMESA remains 
6-9 months in arrears on its payments to generators. (The last 
payment received covered March 2007.) AES also noted that 
Argentine residential electricity end-users pay roughly one 
third of rates consumers pay in Brazil and Chile.  Wholesale 
users, AES said, pay roughly half the electricity rates their 
competitors in Brazil and Chile do.  Resulting insufficient cash 
flows, AES added, has prevented their distribution companies 
from investment sufficient to maintain network quality. 
 
4. (SBU) AES noted that, while the July/August 2007 winter 
energy shortages (Ref E) were attributed to generation problems 
(low water levels at hydro plants and insufficient domestic 
 
natural gas supplies to meet demand), the current crisis is 
largely due to inadequate electricity distribution capacity to 
meet vastly expanded demand.  Low government-mandated consumer 
electricity rates and a consumption-led economic boom have 
dramatically increased the number of air conditioners and white 
goods (refrigerators, etc.) drawing power from the grid. 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
Modest GoA Conservation Initiative 
---------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Last July 16, Planning Minister De Vido said in a radio 
interview that he would not "insult the intelligence" of 
sophisticated and socially responsible Argentine consumers by 
asking them to conserve.  But on December 21, in anticipation of 
pressure on the electricity grid (and as outlined by De Vido in 
a July 26 meeting with Ambassador - Ref D), the GoA finally 
rolled out an energy conservation scheme.  The modest plan 
includes pushing the national clock ahead one hour for the three 
month January - March period, modifying hours of civil servant 
workdays, rationalizing energy usage in public buildings and 
offering subsidy credits to consumers to incent use of energy 
efficient bulbs.  The stated goal is to save up to 1,000 MW/day. 
Local analysts agree that GoA measures will fall far short of 
this energy saving goal.  They, nonetheless, applaud this 
initiative and call it a welcome GoA acknowledgement that steps 
must be taken to shore up an inadequate and deteriorating 
national electricity infrastructure. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (SBU) After months of public denials by senior GoA officials, 
including by Planning Minister De Vido ("there is no crisis"), 
and efforts to lay the blame on energy sector under-investment 
by profit-hungry private companies, the GoA has announced modest 
conservation measures.  Notably absent, however, has been any 
significant move to limit consumption by adjusting domestic 
electricity tariffs that remain far below market rates in 
neighboring Chile and Brazil.  To be fair, the GoA did allow 
nominal increases in industrial electricity rates charged by 
distributors over the past two years, including by U.S. 
electricity distributor AES.  But "comprehensive reviews" for 
gas and electricity tariffs promised by the Planning Ministry 
Energy Secretariat to electricity distribution companies have 
been repeatedly deferred. 
 
7. Public anger at recent energy disruptions may grow if high 
temperatures continue, and this could exact a political cost. 
But the Cristina Kirchner administration clearly believes that 
cheap energy that helps expand consumer purchasing power remains 
its best strategy.  Despite growing criticism of the GoA's 
short-sighted approach to energy planning, the Kirchner 
administration appears positioned to weather this latest chapter 
of the national energy crisis relatively unscathed:  the still- 
booming economy trumps all, and energy shortages are not 
expected to constrain industrial production during the slack 
January/February summer vacation season. 
 
WAYNE