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Viewing cable 08BOGOTA169, COLOMBIAN CARMAKERS SMARTING FROM NEW VENEZUELA

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BOGOTA169 2008-01-11 22:43 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #0169 0112243
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 112243Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0912
INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9768
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 5779
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 1075
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 6486
UNCLAS BOGOTA 000169 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EIND ETRD PREL ECON CO
SUBJECT: COLOMBIAN CARMAKERS SMARTING FROM NEW VENEZUELA 
IMPORT QUOTAS 
 
 
1.  SUMMARY:   Venezuela's recently imposed vehicle import 
quota will hit Colombian assemblers particularly hard. 
Colombia's big three, who have been gearing up for increases 
in the Venezuelan market, will have their exports cut to less 
than one third of what they were in 2007.  Citibank estimates 
the quota will cost Colombia USD 500 million annually, 
although the GOC predicts a lesser impact.  Neither the GOC 
nor private sector suspect the BRV of imposing the quotas as 
a retaliatory measure against Colombia, but Trade Minister 
Plata used this incident to highlight the need for Colombia 
to expand its export markets.  END SUMMARY 
 
Venezuelan Quota Hits Colombia Car Manufacturers 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2.  Colombia faces the brunt of Venezuela's recent decision 
to restrict new car imports to 220,000 vehicles (80,000 less 
than were imported in 2007).  Colombia's 65,000 vehicles 
exported to Venezuela in 2007 will be shrunk by over 60 
percent: to 20,000 vehicles in 2008.  The quota reduces 
exports from all other countries by only some 20 percent: 
from 240,000 vehicles in 2007 to 200,000 in 2008. 
 
3.  Colombia's big three auto assemblers, Sofasa (Renault and 
Toyota), General Motors Colmotores (Chevrolet), and the 
Colombian Automobile Company (CCA) (Mazda, Mitsubishi and 
Ford), exported one third of their total production to 
Venezuela in 2007.  In anticipation of continued Venezuelan 
demand, Sofasa and CCA initiated significant plant expansions 
and labor force increases in 2007, and will have to 
substantially scale back their plans. GM had planned to 
introduce a new line of light trucks for export to Venezuela 
and domestic sales.  GM official Santiago de Francisco 
Caballero told EconCouns that with the Venezuelan market 
reduced they will no longer assemble the new line; they have 
yet to determine whether this will impact employment. 
 
GOC Considers Measures to Ameliorate Pain 
----------------------------------------- 
 
4.  Citibank estimates the quota will cost Colombia about USD 
500 million a year, a reduction in its GDP of 0.3 percent. 
GOC officials are not so alarmist. Trade Minister Plata told 
EconCouns that they estimate a one percent GDP drop for a 
complete cutoff in Venezuelan trade.  Nonetheless the 
Ministry is discussing measures to ameliorate the damage, 
including increasing the tariffs on vehicles imported into 
Colombia, reducing taxes on sales of locally produced cars, 
and creating a campaign to encourage consumers to buy 
Colombian cars.  Caballero noted that the three assemblers 
are not in agreement on which measures would be most 
appropriate, with GM favoring a reduction in trade distorting 
policies over increased tariffs. He recognized, however, that 
GM is taking the lesser hit compared to Sofasa and CCA: 
"They're in panic mode, while we're just at the fear stage." 
 
No Retaliation Suspected 
------------------------ 
 
5.  Both Plata and Caballero told EconCouns that they do not 
suspect the BRV of instituting or distributing these quotas 
as part of a concerted effort to punish Colombia.  These 
measures have been in the works for several months, Plata 
continued, and Colombia took a bigger hit compared to other 
exporters only because it enjoys a bigger market share and 
the restrictions were not imposed on a pro rata basis.  Plata 
sees a more important lesson for Colombia:  reliance of the 
Venezuelan market -- Colombia's second largest destination 
with 70 percent growth in 2007 -- is risky and not in 
Colombia's long-term interest.  He underscored the need for 
Colombia to continue to expand its export base, noting the 
importance of ratification of the FTA with the U.S. and 
completing accords with Canada and the EU. 
 
Brownfield