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Viewing cable 07PRAGUE1324, CZECH REPUBLIC: FY2006 B VISA VALIDATION STUDY RESULTS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07PRAGUE1324 2007-12-25 18:08 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Prague
VZCZCXRO7460
RR RUEHPOD
DE RUEHPG #1324/02 3591808
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251808Z DEC 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9927
INFO RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 PRAGUE 001324 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR CA/VO/F/P AND CA/FPP 
DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR DS/CR/VF 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS KFRD ASEC EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH REPUBLIC: FY2006 B VISA VALIDATION STUDY RESULTS 
 
*********************** 
* Missing Section 001 * 
*********************** 
 
 
PRAGUE 00001324  002 OF 002 
 
 
6.  As to the question of average length of stay, post was surprised 
to find that only 1.5 percent of travelers reported staying longer 
than three months and would therefore have required a visa even 
under the VWP. Nearly 81 percent of those queried reported staying 
less than one month. Nearly 18 percent stayed 1-3 months. Consular 
officers note that anecdotal evidence contradicts these statistics. 
A relatively high number of visa applicants indicate on their 
applications or during the interview that they intend to stay more 
than a month. It also is common for retired Czechs go to visit their 
relatives in the United States and stay 3-6 months. One particular 
case from early December proves the point: A young non-immigrant 
visa applicant, who was gainfully employed and "looked good on 
paper," indicated on her DS-156 that she had been to the United 
States one time several years ago for two weeks. The consular 
officer was about to issue when he saw a CLASS hit indicating the 
applicant was an eight-year overstay and just returned to the Czech 
Republic this past year after self-deportation. On our validation 
study, she would have been classified as a "return" with a stay of 
two weeks. 
 
STRONGEST INDICATORS: REGION, AGE, GENDER 
--------- ----------- ------- ---- ------ 
 
7.  Post grouped and evaluated validation study results by gender, 
age, region of residence, and occupation. Of the six confirmed 
overstays, four were from the economically depressed area of 
Northern Moravia, four were between 26 and 35, and five were male. 
This (save for gender) fits the profile of applicants who demand 
stronger scrutiny during interviews: those who have little higher 
education, live where there is high unemployment, and are relatively 
young. While the Czech Republic's economy is strong and its currency 
is gaining on both the dollar and the euro, a Prague newspaper 
report from November 2007 notes that Northern Moravia has an average 
unemployment rate of 10.2 percent, in sharp contrast to Prague's 2.4 
percent and a nationwide average of 6.2. In addition, wages are 
still lower in the country compared to the United States and the 
rest of the EU.  But the gap is narrowing. As wages increase, as 
unemployment in places like Prague decreases significantly, and as 
the currency strengthens (from 25 Czech crowns per dollar at the 
beginning of FY-06 to 18 today), illegal work in the United States 
looks less attractive to young people. 
 
COMMENT: 
-------- 
 
8.  The overstay rate of 0.6 percent, though lower than expected, is 
well within the general positive trend of the last few years (2.4 
percent in 2004, and 2.2 in 2005). This assessment also tracks well 
with the decline of the official B-visa refusal rate 11.7 percent in 
FY-04 to 6.7 percent in FY-07. The main take-away point of the 
validation study is that Czechs have a continuously improving low 
overstay rate that puts them well within the new guidelines for the 
VWP. 
 
THOMPSON-JONES