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Viewing cable 07NAIROBI4788, KENYA ELECTIONS: STATE OF PLAY ON ELECTION

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07NAIROBI4788 2007-12-18 10:06 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Nairobi
VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #4788/01 3521006
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181006Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3934
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 9742
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 5627
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4961
RUEHFN/AMEMBASSY FREETOWN 0157
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2455
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1747
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2503
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2427
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
UNCLAS NAIROBI 004788 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PREL KE PGOV
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: STATE OF PLAY ON ELECTION 
OBSERVATION EFFORTS 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 04567 
 
     B. NAIROBI 4457 AND PREVIOUS 
 
  SUMMARY & INTRODUCTION 
   ---------------------- 
 
1.  Kenya will be awash in election observers by the time 
voters go to the polls on December 27.  Roughly 17,500 
international and domestic observers will cover about 27,500 
polling stations in 210 parliamentary constituencies, in 
addition to party agents who will monitor the proceedings on 
behalf of their candidates.  The Electoral Commission of 
Kenya has encouraged both domestic and international 
observers, maintaining a wide open door policy. 
 
2.  Embassy Nairobi is deploying over 160 Kenyan and American 
staff, easily the largest and widest reaching of all the 
international observation missions.  On December 18 and 20, 
we are providing observation training to approximately 350 
observers from over 20 different diplomatic missions.  We are 
hosting the multi-national control room on election-day.  We 
have organized media events and the provision of observation 
forms, a databank, and a coordinated deployment plan.  There 
is shared concern within the donor community, however, over 
the disorganized, behind-schedule domestic observation 
effort, which aspires to train and deploy 17,000 people 
during the next two holiday-laden weeks.  End Summary & 
Introduction. 
 
OUR OBSERVATION EFFORTS 
------------------------ 
 
3.  Embassy Nairobi is deploying over 160 Kenyan and American 
staff, easily the largest and widest reaching of all the 
international observation missions.  We have mobilized all 
available resources to maximize our footprint on the ground. 
We will deploy 54 teams of observers to polling stations in 
all eight provinces.  Deployments will be made to areas where 
there are competitive parliamentary races, women candidates 
are vying, and/or there exists a high potential for vote 
manipulation. 
 
4.  We are hosting a multi-national control room on December 
27-28 to facilitate the safety and security of mission staff, 
coordinate logistics and to communicate observation results. 
(see para 11, below). 
 
RESIDENT DIPLOMATIC OBSERVATION EFFORTS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
5.  According to a survey undertaken by the Swiss Embassy, 
approximately 20 resident diplomatic missions intend to 
deploy diplomatic staff to observe the elections. These 
nations  include South Africa, Japan,  Philippines, 
Afghanistan (USG-sponsored), the Ukraine, Serbia, Indonesia, 
and Argentina.  After our own observation efforts, the 
British High Commission is expected to provide the next 
largest contingent.  Some smaller European missions may 
second staff to the European Union Observation Mission. 
 
OFFICIAL INTERNATIONAL OBSERVER EFFORTS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
6. The European Union will deploy an observation mission, 
headed by German Member of the European Parliament, Graf 
Alexander Lambsdorff.  The mission is expected to number 136 
observers. Thirty-six long-term observers arrived in early 
December and then deployed to regional centers. 
 
7.  The Commonwealth of Nations Secretariat (formerly the 
British Commonwealth) is also sending an observation mission, 
headed by former President of Sierra Leone, Ahmed Tejan 
Kabbah.  We expect this mission will have approximately 15 
observers. 
 
8. The African Union was expected to send a delegation of 20 
observers, but has canceled its mission, allegedly because 
the GOK invitation was not delivered the requisite two months 
before the elections. 
PRIVATE INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS 
------------------------------- 
 
9. At this time, the only private international observation 
that mission is aware of is that of the International 
Republican Institute, which will consist of approximately 20 
observers.  This Delegation will be headed by former A/S 
African Affairs Constance Newman. 
 
DOMESTIC OBSERVATION EFFORTS 
--------------------------- 
 
10.  Kenyan civil society organizations will provide the bulk 
of all election observers.  With USG and other donor support, 
13 civil society organizations have created the Kenyan 
Domestic Observers Forum (KEDOF), an umbrella organization 
meant to coordinate Kenyan domestic observation efforts for 
these elections. KEDOF has received significant technical 
assistance from UNDP.  KEDOF expects to deploy 17,000 
observers. 
 
COORDINATION MECHANISMS 
----------------------- 
 
11. We have actively engaged other like minded diplomatic 
missions (through the LIMID-P group) to coordinate resident 
diplomatic observation efforts. Resident international 
observers will undergo joint observation training hosted by 
the USG and will use common observation forms. On the day of 
the vote, resident diplomatic observers will relay 
observations to a joint control room hosted by the US 
Mission. This joint control room will coordinate informatio 
flows from the field and will be co-located with the US 
Mission control room. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
12. Given the closeness of the election contest, the 
perceived legitimacy of the election outcome could determine 
whether the losing side accepts the results with minimal 
disturbances. Our staff's commendable response to the call 
for volunteers over the Christmas holiday allows us to deploy 
teams to all sections of the country, providing a 
representative view of the vote as a whole. In addition, our 
decision to host the joint observation control room will 
provide much greater access to real-time information; 
allowing a more comprehensive analysis of the election 
process.   END COMMENT 
RANNEBERGER