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Viewing cable 07BRASILIA2227, Brazil Views National Intelligence Report as Positive and

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07BRASILIA2227 2007-12-05 09:46 2011-07-11 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Brasilia
VZCZCXRO3983
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #2227 3390946
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 050946Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0584
INFO RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0236
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 0113
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 1271
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 5524
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 7453
UNCLAS BRASILIA 002227 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
PLEASE PASS TO IO, IO/T, ISN/NESS Richard J.K. Stratford; and 
DOE/MNSA Adam Scheinman, Richard Goorevich, and Melissa Krupa 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG IAEA KNNP NPT TREL BR
SUBJECT: Brazil Views National Intelligence Report as Positive and 
Says IAEA Scrutiny of Iran Should Increase 
 
REF: STATE 162558 
 
This cable is sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly.  Not for internet distribution. 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: On December 4, 2007, per REFTEL POLCouns and 
ESTHOff met with the Head of the Ministry of External Relations' 
Department of Disarmament and Sensitive Technologies, Minister 
Santiago Mourao, to discuss the recent release of the USG National 
Intelligence Estimate (NIE) regarding Iran's nuclear activities. 
The report was released on the eve of IAEA Director General, 
ElBaradei's visit to Brazil.  Mourao said that in general the GOB 
reads the NIE as the USG does, namely that the conclusions of the 
report are positive and that international efforts to temporarily 
prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state have been 
successful.  To this end, Mourao stated that continued pressure and 
scrutiny of Iran's nuclear activities is necessary.  Mourao 
suggested that, in light of this new assessment, the scrutiny of 
Iran's nuclear activities via the IAEA should take precedence over 
pressure via the UN Security Council. End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) In delivering REFTEL non-paper and NIE key judgments, 
POLCouns stressed three key points: 1) Iran's nuclear weapons 
development activities stalled in 2003, but it remains unclear 
whether Iran still intends develop them in the future; 2) 
international pressure and scrutiny of Iran's activities succeeded 
in stopping Iran's nuclear weapons program for the moment; and 3) 
the USG asks that the international community continue to apply 
pressure and scrutiny to Iran's nuclear activities. 
 
3. (SBU) In principle, Mourao said that the GOB agrees with the USG 
regarding the implications of the NIE.  Mourao understood 
immediately the significance of the fact that Iran's nuclear weapons 
program was halted in 2003, agreeing that continued pressure and 
scrutiny of Iran's nuclear activities is necessary.  Mourao 
emphasized that the GOB believes, and the NIE demonstrates, that it 
was international scrutiny via the IAEA that effectively stalled 
Iran's nuclear aspirations.  This, he said, should help to "raise 
the profile of the IAEA."  Thus, Mourao said that the GOB would, as 
it has in the past, continue to be insistent with Iran that it 
increase its cooperation and transparency regarding IAEA inspections 
and the NIE should support international insistence that Iran comply 
with IAEA inspections. 
 
4. (SBU) Mourao went on to ask, given that the NIE suggests that 
Iran is not an imminent threat with regard to its nuclear weapons 
capability, how the NIE would affect ongoing negotiations.  POLCouns 
replied that it remains important that international efforts to 
pressure and scrutinize Iran continue unabated and that these 
estimates should not affect negotiations. 
 
COMMENT 
 
5. (SBU) GOB reaction to the NIE seems to be positive overall and it 
remains committed to efforts which seek to prevent Iran from 
acquiring nuclear weapons technology.  However, Mourao hinted that, 
as a result of the NIE, he thought the UNSC should take a lower 
profile on the issue in favor of the IAEA.  Public reaction to the 
NIE should become more evident with the appearance of the news of 
its release in local press and during the visit to IAEA Director 
General, ElBaradei to Brazil later this week.  Post will report on 
media reaction in septel. End Comment. 
 
SOBEL