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Viewing cable 07MEXICO5870, MEXICAN CONGRESS APPROVES 2008 BUDGET

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07MEXICO5870 2007-11-16 20:46 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO8834
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #5870/01 3202046
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 162046Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9596
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 005870 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR A/S SHANNON 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC, EB/IFD/OMA, AND DRL/AWH 
STATE FOR EB/ESC MCMANUS AND IZZO 
USDOC FOR 4320/ITA/MAC/WH/ONAFTA/GERI WORD 
USDOC FOR ITS/TD/ENERGY DIVISION 
TREASURY FOR IA (ALICE FAIBISHENKO, ANNA JEWEL) 
DOE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS KDEUTSCH AND ALOCKWOOD 
NSC FOR RICHARD MILES, DAN FISK 
EXIM FOR MICHELE WILKINS 
STATE PASS TO USTR (EISSENSTAT/MELLE) 
STATE PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE (ANDREA RAFFO) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ELAB EFIN PINR PGOV MX
SUBJECT: MEXICAN CONGRESS APPROVES 2008 BUDGET 
 
REF: MEXICO 4871 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (U) Mexico's Chamber of Deputies (lower house) on November 
12 approved a USD 236 billion spending bill, the largest in 
the country's history.  The income part of the budget package 
was passed by both the Chamber and the Senate last month, but 
the spending bill only requires lower house passage.  The 
budget includes USD 14 billion more than the Calderon 
government initially proposed, largely due to extra resources 
from the fiscal reform passed in September.  Spending on the 
government-defined categories of social development, economic 
development, public security, and the environment are set to 
increase by a real 8.8%, 13.6%, 39.4%, and 30.1%, 
respectively.  Legislators cut budgets for several autonomous 
bodies, including the Federal Electoral Institute.  End 
Summary. 
 
----------------------------------- 
A Brief Synopsis of the 2008 Budget 
----------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Mexico's Chamber of Deputies on November 12 approved 
the 2008 spending bill with a vote of 449 to six, with three 
abstentions.  The income part of the budget package was 
passed by both the Chamber and the Senate last month, but the 
spending bill only requires lower house passage.  President 
Calderon still has to sign and publish the budget in the 
Official Gazette before it becomes law. 
 
3. (U) The budget plan allows for USD 236 billion ($2.57 
trillion pesos) in spending -- a figure that is USD 14 
billion ($152.5 billion pesos) higher than what the executive 
originally proposed and 9.8% higher in real terms than the 
approved 2007 budget.  The budget is balanced when certain 
off-budget items are excluded.  The USD 14 billion of 
additional revenue comes largely from the overhaul of the 
country's tax laws that Congress approved in mid-September 
(USD 11.7 billion), but also from changes Congress made to 
the macroeconomic assumptions used in the budget 
calculations.  A noteworthy change was the increase in the 
Mexican oil mix price estimate from USD 46.60 to USD 49.00 
per barrel. 
 
4. (SBU) Regarding revenues, non-oil related tax income is 
expected to reach a record level of 11.5% of GDP.  Finance 
Secretary Carstens earlier this week said publicly that 
 
SIPDIS 
Pemex, the state-owned energy company, will account for 34% 
of total government revenue next year, down from 37% this 
year.  He added that oil will make up a smaller percentage of 
government revenue in the future.  (Comment: This is an 
important development because the less Mexico relies on 
petroleum and volatile oil prices for its tax intake, the 
better.  End Comment.) 
 
5. (U) Approved programmable expenditures for 2008 total USD 
174 billion ($1.9 trillion pesos), a figure that represents 
18.1% of GDP, its highest proportion since 1988.  Public 
investment levels are expected to reach their highest levels 
in the last 20 years.  Budgeted investment will represent 
3.6% of GDP, while the "investment driven by the public 
sector" item -- which includes expenditures for Pidiregas 
(long-term infrastructure projects) -- will represent 5.0% of 
GDP. 
 
6. (U) Spending on the government-defined categories of 
social development, economic development, public security, 
and the environment is set to increase by a real 8.8%, 13.6%, 
39.4%, and 30.1%, respectively.  The Chamber approved USD 92 
 
MEXICO 00005870  002 OF 002 
 
 
million to support high-tech urban small- and medium-sized 
businesses.  Carstens this week said that a record USD 101 
million will go to fund social programs -- a move that the 
government undoubtedly hopes will help reduce persistent 
poverty. 
 
7. (U) The following government ministries received the 
largest spending increases in real terms compared to 2007: 
Tourism (79.3%), Communication and Transportation (43.8%), 
Public Security (39.4%), Social Development (37.8%), and 
Environment (30.1%).  The historically large hike for the 
Secretariat of Tourism is important because this industry has 
 
SIPDIS 
lagged in recent years, in part due to the small amount of 
resources dedicated to this ministry.  While the Secretariat 
of Agriculture only received a 6.7% real increase in funding, 
the Chairman of the Chamber's Agricultural Committee said 
that the budget approved for the sector was historical.  He 
added that these resources will be channeled to improve the 
sector's competitiveness and productivity.  Funding for Pemex 
and ISSSTE (the social security institute for government 
workers) increased by almost 11%.  Federal government 
resources going to the federal entities for both 
contributions and shared revenues will total $812 billion 
pesos, 12.7% higher in real terms than in the 2007 budget. 
 
8. (U) Legislators cut budgets for several autonomous bodies, 
including the Federal Electoral Institute, the Supreme Court 
of Justice, and the National Human Rights Commission.  Among 
the ministries, the General Attorney (-2.4%), Presidency 
(1.5%), and Finance and Public Credit Secretariats received 
the smallest spending increases. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. (SBU) The recently passed tax reform and high oil prices 
have allowed Mexico to pass the largest budget in its 
history.  The beneficiaries of this larger budget in the 
government include Pemex, the federal entities, and several 
secretariats -- including the Secretariat of Communications 
 
SIPDIS 
and Transportation, which will boost much-needed 
infrastructure investment.  This, together with increased 
funding for social and economic development, will not only 
help bolster the economy in the face of a slowdown in the 
U.S., but will also directly benefit the Mexican public. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
GARZA