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Viewing cable 07JERUSALEM2419, SETTLER LEADER SAYS OUTPOST REMOVAL IMPOSSIBLE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07JERUSALEM2419 2007-11-21 15:32 2011-05-19 23:30 CONFIDENTIAL Consulate Jerusalem
VZCZCXRO2610
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHJM #2419 3251532
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211532Z NOV 07
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9754
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC PRIORITY
"C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002419 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE. NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/WATERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2017 
TAGS: KWBG PBTS PREL PHUM IS
SUBJECT: SETTLER LEADER SAYS OUTPOST REMOVAL IMPOSSIBLE 
WITHOUT VIOLENCE 
 
Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY:  Following PM Olmert's November 19 
announcement that he intends to evacuate ""illegal outposts,"" 
Yesha Council Chairman Dani Dayan told PolOff that this is 
""technically impossible"" and will produce violent reactions 
from settlers.  Dayan said the Yesha previously thought the 
GoI was threatening a freeze on settlement activity to 
increase pressure for the Yesha to support outpost 
evacuation, but now believes Olmert is considering both 
issues in the context of Roadmap Phase One obligations and 
the Annapolis meeting. END SUMMARY. 
 
""Removal of Outposts Will Mean Removal of Olmert"" 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
2.  (C)  Immediately after PM Olmert announced November 19 
that ""illegal outposts"" will be removed, Yesha Council 
Chairman Dani Dayan told PolOff that this is ""technically 
impossible,"" and Yesha will use ""all its political leverage"" 
to bring down the Olmert government if it pursues this 
policy.  Dayan indicated that he believes Olmert's 
announcement referred to 26 outposts and some 1,0000 
settlers, although the GOI issued no confirmed public list of 
outposts for removal.  He noted that, before removing 7000 
settlers from Gush Katif in Gaza in 2005, then-PM Sharon 
prepared the IDF and the Israeli public for this development. 
 Dayan said Olmert has not conditioned the IDF or the public, 
and any attempt to evacuate the outposts will ""inevitably 
lead to violence.""  Dayan suggested that the Yesha have not 
decided whether or how to resist evacuation of outposts. 
Asked directly, he said only ""we'll cross that bridge when we 
come to it,"" noting that any settlers removed from outposts 
will resettle elsewhere in the West Bank. 
 
Settlement Freeze 
----------------- 
 
3.  (C)  Dayan said he believes a ""settlement freeze"" means 
""no new building permits and no new tenders"" and is already 
in effect, since no new building permits have been approved 
in the past several months. The practical outcome of 
continuing a freeze, he said, will be an end of large 
construction projects in the large settlement blocs, but it 
will be easy to continue construction in the smaller 
settlements.  He said he expects that with a ""freeze,"" 
planned projects for which permits are already issued in 
large and small settlement blocs will continue.  He said he 
also anticipates that a freeze will put great pressure on 
settler families having additional children and on newlyweds 
seeking to live near parents. 
 
A dismal outlook 
---------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Dayan said the Yesha Council was wrong in believing 
the GoI threat of a settlement freeze was in order to 
pressure the Yesha to support the removal of outposts. 
According to Dayan, only now, after meeting PM Olmert on this 
issue, does Yesha understand that the GoI is considering 
outpost removal and a settlement freeze in the context of GOI 
obligations under Phase One of the Roadmap in advance of the 
11/27 Annapolis meeting. 
 
5. (C)  Dayan said he believes PM Olmert knows ""less about 
settlers than he does about Palestinians,"" and is merely 
using the settlers as a bargaining chip in negotiations.  He 
urged the USG to focus its efforts in the negotiations on 
humanitarian issues, such as access and movement, and to 
deter permanent status issues for ""ten or fifteen years."" 
Dayan said the time and conditions are not right for 
negotiations, and Annapolis will be a ""one day photo op"" that 
leads to intense violence, the fall of PM Olmert's 
government, and a tarnished USG reputation. 
WALLES 
"