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Viewing cable 07HANOI2013, INFLATION IN VIETNAM HITS 10 PERCENT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07HANOI2013 2007-11-29 07:03 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Hanoi
VZCZCXRO9682
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHHI #2013 3330703
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 290703Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6798
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 4001
RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 2461
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS HANOI 002013 
 
SIPDIS 
(C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y - ADDED CAPTIONS) 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS USTR FOR DBISBEE 
SINGAPORE FOR SUSAN BAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV VM
SUBJECT: INFLATION IN VIETNAM HITS 10 PERCENT 
 
REF: A) HANOI 1729 B) HANOI 1475 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Vietnam's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has hit a 
record high of 10% year-on-year for the month of November, 
continuing an eleven-month trend of accelerating inflation.  High 
inflation will likely continue because of the recent increase in 
fuel prices and retail price hikes for the holiday season.  The GVN 
continues to struggle internally about how to address the issue of 
inflation.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U) Vietnam's General Statistics Office (GSO) recently reported 
that the November CPI hit a record high of 10.01% year-on-year.  The 
GSO attributes the continued rise to the effects of flooding in the 
country's central region, which has hurt supply, causing food prices 
to increase by 14.9 percent year-on-year in November (food and 
foodstuffs comprise nearly 40% of the CPI basket).  Building 
materials were also up 14 percent year-on-year in November, however, 
suggesting that food supply disruptions are not the full story. 
 
3.  (U) Local analysts expect that prices will continue to rise 
following a 15% increase in fuel prices by the Ministry of Finance 
(MOF) on November 22.  The MOF, which controls the price of petrol, 
raised the price per liter from VND 11,300 (approx. USD .71) to VND 
13,000 (approx. USD .81).  Local experts also forecast that 
increased transportation costs will lead to a rise in production 
costs that will be felt across the board in Vietnam, especially in 
offshore fishing and heavy industry.  They further predict this 
pressure on prices, combined with the usual increase around the 
holiday season, which is already evident in many retail outlets, 
will continue to drive inflation through the Tet holiday in 
February. 
 
4.  (SBU) The debate surrounding how to control inflation (Reftel A) 
continues within the GVN.  In a recent meeting at the State Bank of 
Vietnam (SBV), an office director involved with monetary policy 
plainly (and to our  surprise because of his openness) stated to 
Econoff that inflation was not the SBV's fault and that others in 
the GVN were not allowing the SBV to control the problem.  He 
further commented that the SBV was looking forward to the day when 
it could be a more independent central bank.  (Comment:  He was 
likely referencing the pending law on State Bank reform, which is 
supposed to allow the SBV to develop monetary policy with less 
interference from political institutions. End comment.) 
 
5. (U) Press reports noting the SBV's attempts to permit the Dong to 
appreciate were quickly followed by additional reports that the MOF 
had put a stop to such efforts.  Perhaps looking for middle ground 
among the various parties (e.g., SBV, MOF, and the Economic 
Council), the Prime Minister recently announced the formation of a 
"National Advisory Council on Monetary and Financial Policy," which 
will be comprised of government officials and private-sector types, 
to advise the GVN on financial and monetary policies and mechanisms. 
 The former Governor of the SBV, Le Duc Thuy, who left his post 
amongst allegations of corruption, will serve as the vice president 
of the Council. 
 
6. (SBU) Comment:  Double digit inflation is an unwelcome milestone 
for the GVN.  Given the falling value of the dollar elsewhere 
combined with a rising CPI in Vietnam, even the strongest proponents 
of a depreciated Dong may now have to re-evaluate their position. 
Although consumer reaction remains muted, the inevitable supply 
chain ripples of the gas price hike combined with predicted Tet 
increases could lead to a more vocal public outcry.  End Comment. 
 
 
MICHALAK