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Viewing cable 07ZAGREB955, REFERENDUM ON CROATIA'S ENTRY INTO NATO - NOT LEGALLY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ZAGREB955 2007-10-19 07:58 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Zagreb
VZCZCXRO3822
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVB #0955 2920758
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 190758Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8244
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS ZAGREB 000955 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/RPM, EUR/PPD, PM, INR/EUR and IO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR POLITICAL PARTIES
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM ON CROATIA'S ENTRY INTO NATO - NOT LEGALLY 
REQUIRED, BUT A RISK SOME PARTIES WOULD TAKE 
 
1. SUMMARY: Real public debate on the pros and cons of Croatia's 
NATO membership has only just begun, but the campaign for the 
November 25 parliamentary elections has already produced promises of 
a NATO referendum from some Croatian opposition parties. While all 
parties in Parliament are pro-NATO and agree that a referendum to 
join is not legally necessary, some argue that a referendum should 
be held "to feel the people's pulse". A negative vote on NATO in 
such a referendum, however, would not merely be politically 
damaging, but, if turnout were over 50 percent, would be legally 
binding on the government. END SUMMARY. 
 
2. Croatia's major political parties, all of which are in varying 
degrees pro-NATO, agree that NATO is an "international agreement." 
Under the Croatian Constitution, joining an international agreement 
requires only ratification by a two-thirds majority vote of all 
representatives in the Croatian Parliament to enter into force. 
However, Article 86 of the Constitution also allows Parliament to 
call a referendum on any issue it considers important for Croatia. 
While the ruling HDZ has indicated it would not call such a 
referendum, most opposition parties - including the largest, the 
Social-Democratic Party (SDP) - advocate holding such a referendum 
on NATO "to feel the people's pulse."  These parties argue that 
Croatia's membership in NATO would be on sounder footing if it had 
been explicitly endorsed by a pubic decision. 
 
3. A decision in such a referendum is made by the majority of the 
voters who participate, provided that more than half of all eligible 
voters take part in it.  While calling a referendum is not required 
for Croatia to join an international agreement, if turnout is over 
the 50 percent threshold, then its decision is legally binding on 
the government.  If turnout were below 50 percent, then the 
referendum would be judged to have not reached a decision, and the 
government would not be legally bound by the result.  It would, 
therefore, be legally free to complete NATO accession based solely 
on Parliamentary ratification.  Politically, however, unless the 
government could argue that turnout was so low as to represent an 
invalid measure of public opinion, it would be very difficult for a 
government to ignore any result with a significant margin against 
NATO. (NOTE: No such options exist for EU accession under the 
current Constitution.  Since the EU is considered an "alliance of 
states", Article 141 of the Croatian Constitution requires that EU 
accession be ratified by a positive decision in a referendum, 
meaning that the 50% turnout requirement would have to be met for a 
decision to be valid.  END NOTE.) 
 
4. The latest polls suggest that Croatian citizens' support the 
country's entry into NATO hovers right around 50 percent, with 
slightly higher figures if only those who say they would be likely 
to vote are considered.  Any party calling a referendum on NATO, 
therefore, would need to commit to an energetic poQtical campaign 
to promote a yes vote.  In addition, if a Croatian government 
holding office after the upcoming November 25 elections decided to 
call such a referendum, it would need to move quickly to establish 
the mechanisms for such a vote, as Croatia lacks any experience with 
referendums since its vote for independence in 1991. 
 
BRADTKE