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Viewing cable 07ZAGREB916, NEW POLL SHOWS CONTINUED GROWTH IN NATO SUPPORT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ZAGREB916 2007-10-04 15:01 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Zagreb
VZCZCXRO6763
PP RUEHIK RUEHPOD RUEHYG
DE RUEHVB #0916 2771501
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 041501Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8204
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS ZAGREB 000916 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR, EUR/SCE 
USNATO FOR JONES, UNDERWOOD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL NATO PGOV KPAO MOPS MARR HR DEFENSE REFORM
SUBJECT: NEW POLL SHOWS CONTINUED GROWTH IN NATO SUPPORT 
 
REF: A. ZAGREB 618 
 
     B. ZAGREB 593 
     C. ZAGREB 395 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: A poll contracted by the 
International Republican Institute (IRI) shows a continued 
rise in public support for NATO membership.  In a 
Post-organized briefing to NATO-member embassies on October 
2, IRI representatives highlighted a 10 percent increase in 
support for Croatia's Alliance membership since their last 
regular poll in April 2007.  Respondents in favor of 
membership rose to 48 percent while opposition dropped to 43 
percent.  When adjusted to reflect only respondents willing 
to vote in a potential NATO referendum, support climbed to 56 
percent and opposition dipped to 41.  IRI-organized polls 
have consistently shown lower levels of support than 
GoC-sponsored polling due to various methodological 
differences but are widely considered to be a more reliable 
measure of public opinion.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
CLEAR POSITIVE TREND BUT PUBLIC STILL FEELS UNINFORMED 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
2. Poll results, based on 3,000 face-to-face interviews 
conducted throughout the country from August 17 to September 
17, indicate clear growth in public backing for NATO 
accession, showing a 17 percent rise from the February 2007 
low of 31 and opposition 18 points down from its historic 
high of 61.  Equally encouraging was relatively consistent 
support across major political parties, with 56 percent of 
ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) voters and 51 percent 
of opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) supporters 
favoring NATO.  SDP support is particularly important, 
showing that members have not confused party leader Zoran 
Milanovic's calls for a referendum on NATO accession with 
opposition to Croatia's membership. 
 
3. The general public, however, still feels poorly informed 
about the costs and benefits of NATO membership.  Despite 
intense GoC efforts, only 19 percent of Croatians feel well 
or very well informed about NATO.  That figure remains 
unchanged over the past year.  According to the poll, many 
Croatians also continue to view NATO as a servant of USG 
foreign policy interests and believe membership will increase 
the risk of terrorist attacks. 
 
HDZ NARROWING SDP LEAD IN ELECTION RUN-UP 
----------------------------------------- 
 
4. Regarding the popularity of political parties, the poll 
showed HDZ closing the gap on SDP before parliamentary 
elections next month.  At nearly 27 percent, HDZ is just 
three points behind the SDP, a statistical dead heat given 
the poll's margin of error.  Other trends, such as voters' 
perceptions of the government, are also improving for the 
HDZ, but their performance on such issues as unemployment and 
corruption remain key vulnerabilities. 
 
5. The full polling presentation will be provided to EUR/SCE 
via email and will be available on Post's SIPRNet site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/zagreb/. 
BRADTKE