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Viewing cable 07NAIROBI3897, KENYA ELECTIONS: PROJECTED VOTERS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07NAIROBI3897 2007-10-01 13:51 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Nairobi
VZCZCXRO3331
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHNR #3897/01 2741351
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011351Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2637
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 9549
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 5468
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4846
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2284
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1497
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2401
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2330
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003897 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KE PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: PROJECTED VOTERS 
 
REF: NAIROBI 3609 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Using recent and historic voter 
registration, voter turnout and population data, we have 
projected likely voters by region and ethnic community. 
Kibaki's Kikuyu/Meru/Embu base accounts for at least 30 
percent of projected voters.  Raila Odinga's Luo base and 
Maasai/Samburu allies account for 15 percent of projected 
voters.  The Kalenjin and Luhya communities, who both sides 
are courting intensely, account for 17 and 10 percent of 
projected voters respectively.  An Odinga victory would 
require a collapse of Moi's influence among the Kalenjin (Moi 
supports Kibaki) and a united Luhya vote against fellow Bantu 
Kibaki (the Luhya consist of 16 distinct groups that 
historically have formed diverse political alliances). Odinga 
has a track record as a brilliant campaign tactician, but 
overcoming Kenya's traditional ethnic political alignments 
will be a tall order. End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) An analysis of raw voter registration data from the 
Electoral Commission of Kenya as of 28 May 2007, of voter 
turnout data from the November 2005 draft constitution 
referendum and of data extrapolated from the 1999 census 
reveals the following insights: 
 
Projected Voters: 
 
Kibaki Camp:  Kikuyu/Embu/Meru: 30 percent of projected 
voters. 
 
Odinga Camp: Luo: 12 percent, Maasai/Samburu: 3 percent. 
 
Musyoka Camp: Kamba: 8 percent. 
 
Swing Votes: Kalenjin & Turkana: 17 percent; Luhya: 10 
percent, Kisii & Kuria: 4 percent, Mijikenda: 3 percent, 
Somali: 1 percent. 
 
Mixed constituencies & others: 13 percent. 
 
Turnout Rates per 11/2005: 
 
Kibaki Camp:  Kikuyu/Embu/Meru: 60 percent turnout. 
 
Odinga Camp: Luo: 65 percent, Maasai/Samburu: 60 percent. 
 
Musyoka Camp: Kamba: 51 percent. 
 
Swing Votes: Kalenjin & Turkana: 70 percent; Luhya: 47 
percent, Kisii & Kuria: 43 percent, Mijikenda: 35 percent, 
Somali: 24 percent. 
 
Mixed constituencies: 44 percent. 
 
Registered Voters as Share of Voting Age Population: 
 
Densely populated Central and Western provinces have the 
highest rates of registered voters.  Underpopulated, remote 
and infrastructure-starved Northeast province has the lowest 
rate.  (Note:  Only relative rates are available as the 
population data is based on an unreliable extrapolation of 
1999 census data.  End Note.) 
 
Comment:  Actual Voters Decide Elections 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) The 2005 referendum on the draft constitution was a 
hard fought, high profile campaign.  The level of turnout in 
that exercise should approximate turnout in this year's 
presidential and parliamentary contest.  High voter 
registration rates in the president's home province (Central) 
and the Vice-President's home province (Western) are 
reasonable given the population density of those regions and 
the relatively good road networks found there.  Conversely, 
low population density and poor to non-existent road networks 
explain the relatively low voter registration figures and 
exceptionally low voter turnout figures from Northeast 
province.  Traditional attitudes of alienation from the 
central government may also account for these figures in 
ethnic Somali Northeastern Province.  The Kalenjin had the 
 
NAIROBI 00003897  002 OF 002 
 
 
highest rate of voter turnout in 2005 due to their history of 
intense political mobilization during the Moi era.  These 
rates may wane this year as Moi's influence lessens. 
 
4.  (SBU) The battleground for this election will be the 
Kalenjin districts of Rift Valley Province, ethnic Luhya 
Western Province and Coast Province.  At some point in the 
campaign, Musyoka may offer up his ethnic-Kamba supporters (8 
percent of projected voters) to the highest bidder, although 
given Kibaki's high poll numbers and Odinga's low poll 
numbers in Kambaland, a Musyoka/Odinga alliance would be a 
hard sell. 
 
5.  (SBU) In light of the recent spate of contradictory 
public opinion polls on the presidential race, it is useful 
to recall that actual voters determine the outcome of 
elections, hence the attempt here to project the ethnic 
identities of likely voters given available data.  An Odinga 
victory would require a collapse of Moi's influence among the 
Kalenjin (Moi supports Kibaki) and a united Luhya vote 
against fellow Bantu Kibaki (the Luhya consist of 16 distinct 
groups that historically have formed diverse political 
alliances). Odinga has a track record as a brilliant campaign 
tactician, and he has widespread anti-Kikuyu resentment on 
his side, but overcoming Kenya's traditional ethnic political 
alignments will be a tall order. 
RANNEBERGER