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Viewing cable 07MOSCOW5092, DUMA READY TO BACK CFE SUSPENSION, CHAIRMAN SAYS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07MOSCOW5092 2007-10-22 10:43 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Moscow
VZCZCXRO5656
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #5092/01 2951043
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221043Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4767
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 4638
RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 2490
RUEHYG/AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG 2795
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005092 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCFE PARM MARR WTRO IR KV RS
SUBJECT: DUMA READY TO BACK CFE SUSPENSION, CHAIRMAN SAYS 
 
 
MOSCOW 00005092  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) In a meeting with NSC Senior Director Warlick and 
EUR DAS Kramer, International Affairs Committee Chairman 
Kosachev underscored the Duma's support for the suspension of 
CFE on December 12, absent a change in the U.S. position and 
reiterated GOR opposition to any linkage to Istanbul 
commitments. Kosachev suggested that Putin's leadership of 
United Russia did not guarantee a constitutional majority for 
the ruling party, but did spell the end for Just Russia. 
Kosachev underscored the Duma's readiness to move forward on 
outstanding WTO-related legislation, support for negotiations 
with Iran, and rejection of a U.S.-driven timeline for 
Kosovo's independence. End Summary. 
 
-------------- 
CFE SUSPENSION 
-------------- 
 
2. (SBU) In a meeting with NSC Senior Director Warlick and 
EUR DAS Kramer on October 10, Duma International Affairs 
Committee Chairman Kosachev outlined the legislative steps 
involved in Russia's proposed December 12 "suspension" of the 
CFE Treaty. Kosachev said the Duma will discuss the CFE 
treaty suspension in a plenary session likely to take place 
the first week of November. This follows committee hearings 
held September 19 and a decision in support of suspension 
taken on October 10. A Duma resolution calling for suspension 
of the treaty will go to the Federation Council for 
ratification and then to the President for signature. The 
Duma action follows a 150-day period from the day on which 
President Putin issued the decree to suspend the treaty (July 
13). Kosachev saw little room for maneuver and said changes 
to Russia's current position would only occur if the U.S. 
changed its position. "If nothing happens from the U.S. side, 
then Russia will suspend." 
 
--------------------------- 
CFE AND ISTANBUL AGREEMENTS 
--------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Kosachev reiterated the GOR stance that the Istanbul 
Commitments of 1999 are not linked to CFE. All issues 
concerning Georgia are "completely settled," including 
withdrawal from Gudauta, he said. On Moldova, Kosachev argued 
that limits established in CFE were accomplished by Russia in 
2002. In response to a suggestion that the Russian 
peacekeeping force in Moldova be transitioned into an 
international force, Kosachev stated that "this has nothing 
to do with CFE." A proposal to have parallel actions 
involving movement on the Istanbul Commitments, while allies 
work to ratify the Adapted CFE, was met with a comment that 
"the impression of the Russian Ministry of Defense is that 
your country does not want to adopt (Adapted) CFE and this is 
a pretext to avoid it." 
 
4. (SBU) Kosachev warned that peacekeepers in Moldova should 
be kept out of the discussion. In his view, peacekeepers are 
separate from a discussion on Transnistria's political 
status. "The issue of Russians guarding munitions is not 
worth a loss of confidence, ruining a treaty and our 
bilateral relationship." 
 
----------------- 
DOMESTIC POLITICS 
----------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Kosachev, a member of the ruling United Russia (YR) 
party, said "everyone" had hoped Putin would join their 
party's list but no one knew for sure -- including party 
leaders -- until Putin made his announcement. It was a 
"personal decision," Kosachev said. "It makes our life 
harder, not easier, because we must meet a high level of 
(expectation)." According to him, a simple majority was 
realistic, but a constitutional majority will be more 
difficult. He said internal polls have shown a 5-6 percent 
increase in support which is not enough for a constitutional 
majority. 
 
6. (SBU) Kosachev predicted that the pro-Kremlin Just Russia 
party could receive only 5-6 percent of the vote, according 
to polls conducted by YR. "They are not popular and now it 
will be even more difficult," Kosachev said. He attributed 
the party's problems to the collection of diverse parties 
that merged to become Just Russia. "They were not prepared to 
compromise," he said. 
 
MOSCOW 00005092  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
7. (SBU) Although no one knows what the Duma will look like 
after the election, Kosachev said there could be a merger of 
the International Affairs and CIS committees. Kosachev would 
not say for sure whether he would keep his position as 
Chairman. He expressed continued interest in pursuing 
interparliamentary contacts and said the Hyde/Lantos format 
had worked well. 
 
-------------------- 
WTO, IRAN AND KOSOVO 
-------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Kosachev said outstanding WTO-related legislation 
will be in no danger when it comes to the Duma. Experts have 
followed the discussions closely and are aware of the need to 
ensure that Russian legislation is compatible with WTO 
requirements, he said. 
 
9. (SBU) On Iran, Kosachev characterized the IAEA "plan" as 
"functional," noting that Iran has made progress on several 
issues in the action plan. Kosachev asserted that as long as 
Iran continued to cooperate with the IAEA, additional 
pressure on the regime will only undermine the international 
community's efforts. 
 
10. (SBU) Kosachev criticized the U.S. timeline for Kosovo's 
independence, arguing that fallout over the issue could 
poison U.S.-Russian relations. He did not rule out GOR 
recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in response and 
concluded that "you are trapped if you continue to approach 
it this way." 
 
11. (U) This telegram has been cleared by NSC Senior Director 
Warlick and EUR DAS Kramer. 
Burns