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Viewing cable 07KHARTOUM1482, CENTRAL BANK'S GOVERNOR GIVES OPTIMISTIC READOUT OF

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07KHARTOUM1482 2007-09-20 15:23 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Khartoum
VZCZCXYZ0024
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKH #1482/01 2631523
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 201523Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8576
UNCLAS KHARTOUM 001482 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
DEPT PASS TREASURY FOR OIA, 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, EEB/IFD/OMA, EEB/ESC/ESP 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN ECON EAID PINR IMF SU
SUBJECT: CENTRAL BANK'S GOVERNOR GIVES OPTIMISTIC READOUT OF 
SUDANESE ECONOMY 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 1403 
 
1.  (U) SUMMARY:  In a September 19 visit with EconOffs, the 
Governor of the Central Bank of Sudan, Dr. Sabir Hassan, presented 
an optimistic outlook of the Sudanese economy.  Although Hassan 
named U.S. sanctions, economic diversification, and poverty 
reduction as challenges, he stated that the Sudanese economy 
continues to grow and attract foreign direct investment (FDI). 
Hassan also discussed the Central Bank's role in the implementation 
of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), the move away from U.S. 
dollars for international transactions, and the emerging Sudanese 
banking sector. END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------- 
KEY INDICATORS ARE POSITIVE 
--------------------------- 
2.  (U) Hassan opened by reviewing the Central Bank of Sudan's 
relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and recent 
successes in macro-economic policy.  Although Sudan is ineligible to 
receive international financial institution (IFI) financing due to 
its current debt arrearage, Sudan values the IMF's technical 
assistance.  The IMF's two major concerns are a lack of fiscal 
discipline and Sudan's reliance on non-concessional borrowing.  In 
2006, Sudan (both the Government of National Unity in Khartoum and 
the Government of South Sudan) had glaringly failed to restrain 
expenditures when oil revenues fell short of forecasts.  The new IMF 
Staff Monitored Program (reftel) will seek to address this problem. 
On the second concern, Hassan pointed out that Sudan has no choice 
but to rely on non-concessional borrowing, since it is ineligible 
for IFI financing.  However, Sudan will seek to limit such borrowing 
as much as possible. Hassan stated that Sudan has fulfilled the 
requirements set for the IMF's Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) 
initiative, and hopes it will become eligible for debt relief in the 
near future. 
 
3  (U) Hassan noted that Sudan's inflation rate decreased from the 
double digits in the 1990's to single digits in the last several 
years.  (Note:  The 2006 rate of inflation in Sudan was estimated at 
7.2 percent.)  Hassan also said that Sudan stabilized its currency 
through a managed float system.  He stated that over the last 
several years the dinar has significantly appreciated against the 
dollar, making non-oil exports less competitive, but that the FX 
rate has stabilized in the last year.  Hassan noted that he expects 
the Sudanese economy to continue to grow at a rapid rate and to 
attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).  According to Hassan, Sudan 
was the "second or third strongest country in Africa for attracting 
investment." 
 
4  (U) Hassan stated that Sudan has become dependent on oil revenues 
which constitute 70% of total exports. Although he described the oil 
industry as the "main engine of economic growth" he stated that FDI 
has started to diversify to the telecommunications, transport, and 
agricultural sectors.  He added that the Sudanese agricultural 
sector is "not growing at rates that we would like to see, 
especially considering that our comparative advantage is in 
agriculture."  Although he considers agriculture to be a "risk 
sector," Hassan asserted that there is great potential for 
agricultural development in Sudan. 
 
-------------- 
BANKING SECTOR 
-------------- 
5  (U)  According to Hassan, the Government of Sudan (GoS) has taken 
measures to reform and improve the banking sector.  The GoS 
encouraged banks to merge, improve their profitability, and comply 
with international banking standards (e.g. Basel II).  He claimed 
that the Sudanese banking sector attracted over $2 billion in 
foreign direct investment, with many new international banks such as 
Byblos, Capital, Salaam, and Emirates opening branches in Sudan in 
the last several years. 
 
------------------------- 
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CPA 
------------------------- 
6  (U) Hassan reviewed the Central Bank of Sudan's role in 
implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) through the 
successful currency conversion from the dinar to the pound and 
through establishing the Bank of Southern Sudan (BoSS).  Hassan 
described the BoSS as a branch of the Central Bank of Sudan with the 
same board of governors, consisting of three representatives from 
South Sudan and six representatives from the North. The Governor of 
the BoSS is Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sudan and a 
member of its board.  Hassan said that there are currently three 
branches of the bank of Sudan in the south.  With the creation of 
two additional branches, he asserted that "that should be enough for 
the time being in the South." 
 
-------------- 
U.S. SANCTIONS 
-------------- 
7  (U)  Hassan described tightened U.S. sanctions on Sudan as a 
 
"serious problem."  He stated that conducting transactions in 
dollars has become more difficult.  He added that the GoS has been 
forced to use other currencies for international transactions.  He 
stated that they have not relied upon any single currency for 
international transactions.  He said that Euro and the Australian 
Dollar are often used as alternatives, but that the choice of 
currency depends on the region of the world and the entities 
involved in the transaction.  He stated that U.S. sanctions have 
affected both the private sector and the government, and said that 
he has seen how money can be confiscated by the Office of Foreign 
Assets Control of the U.S. Department of Treasury. Although labeling 
sanctions as "a serious problem," Hassan added that "the sanctions 
will not stop life, there is always someone else to come and help." 
 
 
---------------- 
CHALLENGES AHEAD 
---------------- 
 
8.  (U) Hassan described Sudan as a country blessed with huge 
resources, but held back historically by bad economic policy.  He 
identified the most critical challenge as maintaining the political 
stability needed to let good economic policies work.  On strictly 
economic issues, Hassan said Sudan must prudently manage its oil 
revenues, so as to avoid the "oil disease" that has plagued other 
countries.  Then it must adopt policies that will spread growth and 
prosperity beyond the confines of the Khartoum-Nile region to the 
rest of the country.  Another problem is that the efficacy of 
resource transfers from Khartoum is constrained by a lack of 
capacity elsewhere.  The IMF plans to help Sudan develop a Poverty 
Reduction Strategy Paper in 2008. 
 
9.  (U)  Hassan concluded that he is "very optimistic about the 
future of the Sudanese economy."  Although the challenges of 
economic diversification, U.S. sanctions, and poverty reduction 
exist, he stated that he is confident that the Sudanese economy will 
continue to grow. 
 
10.  (SBU)  BIO DATA:  Dr. Sabir Hassan was born in January 1945. 
He graduated from Khartoum University in 1968 with a B.S. in 
Economics, and in 1974 with a diploma in commercial law.  He earned 
both an MA and a PhD from Syracuse University in New York in 1982. 
Hassan said that he has lived a total of 14 years in the U.S., 
either as a student or as an IMF staffer and that four of his 
children are American citizens by birth.  Hassan was open and 
friendly and gave every indication of being favorably disposed to 
the U.S. 
 
FERNANDEZ