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Viewing cable 07MEXICO4726, FDI IN MEXICO EXPECTED TO REACH 23 BILLION USD

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07MEXICO4726 2007-08-31 19:22 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO6034
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #4726 2431922
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 311922Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8700
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS MEXICO 004726 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE TO WHA/MEX FOR ELIZABETH WOLFSON 
STATE TO EEB/IFD/OIA FOR JOHN FINN 
USDOC FOR 4320/ITA/MAC/WH/ONAFTA/GERI WORD 
TREASURY FOR IA (ALICE FAIBISHENKO) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EINV ECON EFIN MX
SUBJECT: FDI IN MEXICO EXPECTED TO REACH 23 BILLION USD 
 
REF: MEXICO 3124 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (U) Summary. The Mexican government revised its foreign 
direct investment (FDI) forecast for 2007 upward to 23 
billion USD after a stronger than expected first half of the 
year.   The manufacturing sector is the number one recipient 
of FDI, while the United States continues to be the number 
one investor.  The numbers are promising, but need to be 
repeated trimester over trimester to prove that Mexico has 
increased its pull on FDI. End Summary 
 
FDI for 2007 25% More Than Last Estimate 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) The government of Mexico (GOM) revised its FDI 
forecast for 2007 after investment figures from the Bank of 
Mexico showed stronger than expected investments for the 
January to June period.  The new forecast, 23 billion USD is 
25.6% more than the forecast issued at the end of 2006, of 
18.3 billion USD.  If Mexico achieves the forecast it would 
post the largest annual investment since 2001. 
 
3. (U) The GOM estimates investment for January-June 2007 is 
13.2 billion USD, 52% more than for the same period last 
year.   This includes 9.4 billion USD that has actually been 
reported, and an additional 3.8 billion USD that the 
Secretariat of Economy (Economia) estimates will be reported 
 
SIPDIS 
in the future.  The estimate is consistent with Economia 
methodology.  Director General of Direct Investment, Gregorio 
Canales Ramirez previously explained to EconOff that FDI 
annual figures can increase by billions of dollars after the 
initial reports as companies frequently submit information on 
investments many trimesters after the investments were 
actually made. FDI for this period is the second largest in 
Mexican history, bested only by the second half of 2001, 
which included a 12.5 billion USD acquisition of banking 
company Banamex by Citigroup. 
 
Major Players: Manufacturing Sector and U.S. Investors 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
4. (U) Of the investment, 43.3% (5.7 billion USD) was 
directed towards new investments, 21.2% (2.8 billion USD) on 
reinvestments and 35.4% (4.7 billion USD) on investment 
between company accounts. The primary recipient of FDI 
continues to be the manufacturing sector with 44.2%.  The 
financial services sector received 29%.  The transportation 
and communications sector only received 3.9%.  The United 
States continues as Mexico's primary source of investment 
with 60.7% of total FDI.  Spain was second with 13.9%.  Tax 
friendly Bermuda, Virgin Islands and Holland were the source 
of a combined 15.1% (reftel). 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5. (SBU) Though the numbers look positive, it is too early 
for the Calderon administration to declare victory.   The 
increase in investment is being billed by the GOM as proof 
that Mexico is a promising location for foreign investment. 
The numbers do show potential.  Over the past seven years the 
average FDI for the January to June period has averaged only 
10 billion USD.  That being said, FDI in Mexico is subject to 
large fluctuations, usually attributable to acquisitions 
(such as the previously mentioned Citigroup purchase) and 
other one-time investments.  If the country can consistently 
see year over year improvement in FDI, particularly in 
neglected sectors such as transportation and communication, 
then there would be cause for increased optimism and proof 
that President Calderon's push to attract FDI has been 
successful. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
GARZA