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Viewing cable 07MEXICO4265, PARTIES ACCENTUATE THE NEGATIVE AFTER MIXED STATE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07MEXICO4265 2007-08-09 21:16 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO6407
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #4265/01 2212116
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 092116Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8374
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 004265 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, INR, INL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON MX
SUBJECT: PARTIES ACCENTUATE THE NEGATIVE AFTER MIXED STATE 
ELECTIONS RESULTS 
 
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE HANDLE 
ACCORDINGLY. 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  Recriminations are raining this week 
across Mexico's political landscape in the wake of August 5 
state and local elections in Baja California, Aguascalientes 
and Oaxaca.  All three parties are smarting in one locale or 
another.  In Baja California, PRI's Jorge Hank Rhon broke an 
awkward silence to say he was "licking his wounds" and blame 
low voter turnout for his defeat.  PRI seems to be edging 
toward contesting the elections results this week.  In 
Oaxaca, PRD leaders, in typical fashion, disagreed over the 
reasons for their party's poor showing.  In the state of 
Aguascalientes, PAN Governor Reynoso stands accused of aiding 
and abetting opposition candidates.  End summary. 
 
-------------- 
Beaten in Baja 
-------------- 
 
2.  (SBU)  Twenty four hours after Baja California elections 
authorities projected PAN's Jose Guadalupe Osuna Millan the 
clear winner of Sunday's gubernatorial races, former Tijuana 
Mayor Hank Rhon finally admitted defeat and joked about his 
much-noticed absence from the from the public eye for two 
days.  Hank said he'd been licking his wounds and preferred 
that his party leadership take the heat for his loss.  He 
also lamented the slow vote count and told a TV audience that 
"absenteeism won the day" in Sunday's elections.  He noted 
only 800,000 out of 2 million eligible voters participated in 
polling.  (At 41%. voter turnout on Sunday was actually 
somewhat higher than the previous two state/local elections.) 
 
3.  (SBU)  Hank said he would leave it up to PRI leaders as 
to whether to challenge Sunday's results.  Party president 
Beatriz Paredes indicated her party was studying a possible 
challenge in specific districts, but was vague about whether 
it would contest the gubernatorial results. State PRI 
officials have already called for a nullification of the 
gubernatorial results. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Media noted that Paredes and other senior PRI 
partisans had given only lukewarm support to the flamboyant 
and controversial candidate and that national teachers union 
leader (SNTE) Ester Elba Gordillo (ousted from the PRI last 
year) had filled the void and turned around a lackluster 
campaign by Hank's PAN challenger.  Commentators speculated 
that Gordillo's presence generated enough votes among Baja 
teachers to tip the close race in Osuna Millan's favor - 
which the latter denied in a press conference on August 8. 
 
5.  (SBU)  PAN also recovered the municipalities of Tijuana 
and Mexicali, which the PRI had governed since the 2004 
elections.  Osuna Millan will have a PAN majority in the 
state congress.  14 of the 16 generally elected seats were 
won by PAN.  (Another nine seats will be based on 
proportional representation.) 
 
---------------- 
Who Lost Oaxaca? 
---------------- 
 
6.  (SBU)  PRD leaders likewise claimed low turnout 
undermined their candidates in the state of Oaxaca.  Fewer 
than 23 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.  While the 
party's Senate leader Carlos Navarette acknowledged that his 
party had erred in tying itself too closely with APPO, which 
spear-headed last year's disruptive protests in Oaxaca City, 
PRD president Leonel Cota complained that Mexico's "bankrupt" 
electoral system was to blame for the party's poor showing. 
Cota averred that Mexico was "headed down a dead end street," 
as evidenced by low turnouts in every state and local 
elections held this year.  For his part, Navarette indirectly 
chided failed presidential candidate Lopez Obrador's strategy 
of co-campaigning with APPO supporters.  He said that the PRD 
had failed to recognize the extent to which Oaxacan voters 
were fed up with the prolonged crisis and acknowledged that 
his party had in fact strengthened Governor Ulises Ruiz's 
hand. 
 
7.  (SBU)  While many also attribute PRI's victory to the 
governor's heavy use of party machinery (which is far more 
developed in Oaxaca than that of the other parties) to turn 
out the vote, some independent observers noted that many 
races boiled down to contests between former PRI colleagues. 
PRD's Oaxacan slate was said to have been drawn heavily from 
erstwhile PRI partisans recently coaxed into running as 
opposition candidates.  Others noted, however, that the 
Oaxaca results marked another personal defeat for Lopez 
 
MEXICO 00004265  002 OF 002 
 
 
Obrador, who had campaigned extensively in the state on 
behalf of his party.  At the least, Sunday's results 
undermined AMLO's base in the state: three of his closest 
confidants lost their legislative seats. 
 
------------------------------- 
PAN Mulls Aguascalientes Defeat 
------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU)  Finally, PAN's unexpected loss in elections in the 
state of Aguascalientes touched off feuding between the 
state's governor and party leaders who accused him of being 
less than "blanciazul," amid charges he'd helped non-PAN 
candidates.  A 1995 PRI, convert, Governor Luis Armando 
Reynoso's party credentials had been suspect since his 
election in 2004, and there was already talk of expelling 
him.  PAN's loss of seven out of 11 municipalities in the 
State (including the state capital) as well as 11 of its 18 
state legislative seats has accentuated the acrimony.  The 
party's state directorate was meeting this week to discuss 
allegations that Reynoso used his office's resources to 
support Convergencia candidates. 
 
9.  (SBU)  Meanwhile, PAN president Manuel Espino used his 
party's poor showing to take an indirect swipe at President 
Calderon's Los Pinos team, saying that arbitrary selection of 
PAN state candidates by "less than democratic means" was to 
blame for the party's loss in recent elections.  Espino urged 
party reforms to open up the selection process.  He offered 
few specifics to back up his complaint, but his remarks 
recalled the bitter flap in May after Yucatan's elections 
when he charged that Calderon operatives, headed by Chief of 
Staff Juan Mourino, had inappropriately meddled in the state 
to PAN's ultimate disadvantage. 
 
10.  (SBU)  Comment:  All three parties are guilty of poorly 
coordinated efforts to support their candidates in the three 
elections.  Other than that, the results provide little in 
the way of a national bell-weather.  Moreover, with partisans 
in each party pointing fingers at their co-religionists, it 
is unlikely that fallout from last Sunday will impact 
inter-party relationships or complicate discussions of such 
national issues as fiscal or state reform.  End comment. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
 Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
BASSETT