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Viewing cable 07MANILA2824, U.S. Woes Rattle Philippine Stock and Currency Markets But

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07MANILA2824 2007-08-17 07:46 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Manila
VZCZCXRO2796
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #2824 2290746
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 170746Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7937
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI//FPA//
UNCLAS MANILA 002824 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MTS, EAP/EP, EEB/IFD/OMA 
STATE PASS EXIM, OPIC, AND USTR 
STATE PASS USAID FOR AA/ANE, AA/EGAT, DAA/ANE 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
USDOC FOR 4430/ITA/MAC/ASIA & PAC/KOREA & SE ASIA/ASEAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV RP
SUBJECT:  U.S. Woes Rattle Philippine Stock and Currency Markets But 
Cautious Optimism Remains 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  Jitters over global stock market declines have erased gains 
posted by the Philippine stock market since the start of the year. 
The peso, previously trading at seven-year highs, has also come 
under pressure, although a healthy balance of payments and 
record-high foreign exchange reserves will give monetary authorities 
leeway to discourage speculation, inject liquidity as needed, and 
temper excessive volatility.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
Stock Market Drops, Peso Slips 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  The local stock market -- which has trended down since late July 
-- took an especially heavy beating during the August 13-17 trading 
week.  The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) dropped 12.1% 
week-on-week, more than erasing all gains that had driven the market 
to recent historic highs.  At week's close, the PSEi had declined 
3.4% year-to-date and 24.1% from its July 5 peak. 
 
3.  The peso -- which was trading at more than seven-year highs 
above 45 per USD until the third week of July -- has since weakened 
below the 46 per USD mark in recent days.  It was trading at about 
46.85 just before noon local time (midnight Friday Eastern Daylight 
time) on August 17, down 2.5% from the previous week's close.  The 
peso is still up 4.4% year-to-date and stronger than the 48-49 pesos 
per USD range in GRP budget and macroeconomic forecasts. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
But Analysts Note Underlying, Positive Fundamentals 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
4.  Most analysts and traders here believe that the Philippines will 
be able to withstand current jitters and financial market 
volatilities.  Although there have been outflows of portfolio 
capital and conversions from peso to foreign assets like emerging 
markets elsewhere, bankers told us that they are not seeing massive 
capital flight thus far.  (Note: Latest Central Bank data showed net 
foreign portfolio capital inflows this year at USD 3.6 billion as of 
early August, nearly four times the comparable 2006 level. End 
Note.) 
 
5.  Echoing Central Bank officials, analysts also noted that 
financial institutions here are not significantly exposed to 
financial instruments underpinned by sub-prime mortgage loans.  They 
expect a healthy balance of payments (estimated at a USD 4.5 billion 
surplus as of July) and record-high international reserves will 
allow the Central Bank elbow room to inject liquidity to temper 
excessive foreign exchange volatility and discourage speculation. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  Although volatility may continue in coming weeks, several 
analysts predict that the stock market may be close to bottoming out 
and is ripe for bargain-hunting, considering positive corporate 
earnings reports.  The swift reversal in investor sentiment that 
tends to characterize foreign portfolio capital investments 
emphasizes the importance of pursuing and sustaining 
confidence-building reforms, improving the country's competitiveness 
rankings, and harnessing higher levels of foreign direct 
investments. 
 
JONES