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Viewing cable 07HOCHIMINHCITY821, NIV DEMAND IN VIETNAM AT RECORD LEVELS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07HOCHIMINHCITY821 2007-08-03 09:28 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
VZCZCXRO0297
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT
DE RUEHHM #0821 2150928
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 030928Z AUG 07
FM AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2958
INFO RUEHHI/AMEMBASSY HANOI 2087
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 3160
UNCLAS HO CHI MINH CITY 000821 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS CMGT VM
SUBJECT: NIV DEMAND IN VIETNAM AT RECORD LEVELS 
 
 
1.  Demand for nonimmigrant visas in Vietnam is at an all-time 
high, and shows no sign of slowing.  NIV demand in 2007 is up 
over 40% compared to the same period in 2006 in both Ho Chi Minh 
City (HCMC) and Hanoi.  In past years, NIV volume typically 
peaked in June and then gradually declined until beginning to 
rise again in October. This year, however, demand is remaining 
steady, or even rising, even as August begins; HCMC saw 49% more 
applicants in July 2007 than in July 2006. 
 
2.  Demand for tourist and business visas is high and growing, 
but interest in student visas is skyrocketing.  Applications for 
F-1 visas are up by over 70% year-on-year, and by a whopping 
160% over 2004.  Incoming Ambassador Michalak noted during his 
recent confirmation hearings that he intended to double the 
number of Vietnamese students in the United States over the next 
three years; at current rates of increase, that goal will be met 
easily and will likely be exceeded. 
 
3.  When full visa services were established in Vietnam in early 
2000, Mission management and CA had assumed that NIV volume in 
HCMC would take off, but for years NIV growth was slow or 
stagnant even as IV numbers kept going up.  It seems that a 
corner has now been turned, and that NIVs will begin to comprise 
a larger and larger proportion of the Vietnam consular workload, 
in Hanoi as well as HCMC. 
 
4.  With signs of a booming economy visible on every street in 
downtown HCMC and Hanoi, and WTO accession completed, the 
Vietnamese people -- especially in the urban centers -- have 
more money than ever before and the U.S. remains the "dream 
destination" of most of those who want to travel overseas.  U.S. 
education is also widely respected, with an American college 
degree the ultimate dream of those who can afford it.  In the 
past, most U.S.-bound students were either government employees 
on state-sponsored scholarships or the children of high-ranking 
officials, but the situation is changing rapidly. 
State-sponsored education is expanding from Hanoi to the 
provinces, as evidenced by the "Mekong 1000" program in which 
the provinces of the Mekong Delta region are awarding 1,000 
complete scholarships to local residents as part of their 
economic development plan.  We are also already seeing 
increasing numbers of self-funded student applicants whose 
parents have been successful in private business and want to 
cement the best possible future for their offspring. 
 
5.  While Vietnam is clearly growing wealthier rapidly, it must 
be remembered that this remains a poor country with a high 
demand for emigration.  We are issuing more NIVs than ever 
before, but refusal rates remain high: over 40% overall, and 
approximately 60% for students (largely reflecting the fact that 
unsuccessful F-1 applicants tend to reapply multiple times). 
Fraud has long been endemic on the IV side, and there are 
indications that it is increasing on the NIV side; FPU has 
confirmed numerous cases in which student applicants have bought 
whole packages of counterfeit documents from fixers, and we 
regularly hear rumors that this practice is widespread. 
 
6.  The combination of sharply increasing NIV volume and 
increasing fraud will put increasing stress on consular staff in 
the coming months and years, especially as IV and fraud remain 
heavy, ACS workload trends upward, and adoptions continue to go 
up.  If current trends continue -- and there is no reason at 
this point to think that they will not -- Mission Vietnam will 
be asking CA for increased resources, both human and technical, 
to deal with these new consular challenges. 
 
7.  This cable was coordinated with Embassy Hanoi. 
 
FAIRFAX