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Viewing cable 07ADDISABABA2413, C-AL7-01035) ETHIOPIA: TRADE RESTRICTIONS IN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ADDISABABA2413 2007-08-02 05:10 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Addis Ababa
VZCZCXRO8821
PP RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDS #2413/01 2140510
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 020510Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7269
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002413 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, INR/AA, AND PRM/AFR 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREF PGOV PINS PHUM EAGR EAID ET
SUBJECT: (C-AL7-01035) ETHIOPIA: TRADE RESTRICTIONS IN 
OGADEN- PRECURSOR TO A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS? 
 
REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 2343 (AND PREVIOUS) 
     B. STATE 83346 (NOTAL) 
     C. STATE 102381 (NOTAL) 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Results of a Save the Children- UK 
assessment representing the donors indicate that, in the 
limited areas assessment teams were able to visit, under 
current conditions of restrained trade up to 500,000 people 
in Ethiopia's Somali Region may need food assistance in the 
upcoming months.  If the GOE's restriction of commercial 
traffic (including commercial food) is lifted, the number of 
beneficiaries will be substantially lower (around 41,000). 
The study focuses only on rural (not urban or periurban) 
populations and was hampered by the inability of assessment 
teams to enter into much of the Ogaden, including most of 
Gode, Warder, Korahe and Fik Zones.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) On July 30, ECONOFF attended a presentation of the 
study, carried out by Save the Children-UK (SC-UK) for the 
GOE's Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) with 
funds provided by USAID.  The briefing was attended by 
representatives of USAID, SC-UK, and UNOCHA among others. 
 
----------------- 
STUDY METHODOLOGY 
----------------- 
 
3. (U) The study uses household economy analysis to 
investigate the effects of hazards on future access to food 
and income at a household level.  Food and income are 
combined to show a full picture of household income.  This 
income is then compared to thresholds for intervention and to 
baseline years to estimate the number of beneficiaries of 
food aid anticipated in the upcoming months.  This study 
examined the Gu season. (NOTE: Gu is the main rainy season in 
the Somali region.  END NOTE.) 
 
----------------------------------------- 
DATA GAPS DUE TO LIMITED ACCESS TO OGADEN 
----------------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) Due to the current security climate, assessment teams 
were unable to complete their work in Gode, Warder and Korahe 
(i.e., 3 of the 5 Zones where military operations are 
ongoing) before the analysis was completed.  SC-UK expects 
the teams will return from the field and add their data in 
the next several weeks.  However, the teams were unable to 
visit much of Gode, Warder, Degehabur and Korahe Zones.  Some 
areas of Fik were also inaccessible.  Satellite imagery was 
used to estimate rainfall and livestock forage in the 
inaccessible areas.  Additionally, the study focused solely 
on rural populations. 
 
--------------------------------- 
BELOW AVERAGE SEASON, BUT 
EMERGENCY INTERVENTION NOT NEEDED 
--------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) Overall, rainfall was average to above-average in the 
west and north, but below average in Warder, Korahe and 
Degehabur Zones.  The rains were poorly distributed over the 
Gu season, which has led to poor crop production.  Livestock 
forage is at adequate levels and seems to have improved in 
Degehabur and Fik, but is scarce in Liben and Jijiga. 
 
6. (U) Crop production is less than the baseline (reference) 
year.  Livestock are generally in good condition, but milk 
production is a bit low.  Pastoralists have been able to move 
livestock to better areas for grazing.  In areas with good 
market access, pastoralists have been able to maintain their 
purchasing power. 
 
7. (U) This Gu season is rated as below average, and total 
income is assessed to be lower than the reference year. 
However, emergency intervention is not likely to be required 
in the areas studied. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
CAVEAT - NUMBER OF BENEFICIARIES NOT LARGE-SCALE 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002413  002 OF 002 
 
 
IF PRICES RETURN TO PRE-RESTRICTION LEVELS 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
8. (U) In the areas assessed, the study findings indicate 
that if prices return to pre-trade restriction levels, 
humanitarian crisis is not likely in the next three to four 
months.  The total number of beneficiaries in the zones 
assessed is estimated at about 41,000, and no aid is likely 
to be needed in Afder or Liben.  (NOTE: This number of 
beneficiaries is below that of the March 2007 assessment. 
SC-UK representatives speculate that the more scientific 
approach of their methodology versus the more anecdotal 
approach of the last study may account for the difference. 
END NOTE.)  Under the current scenario where food prices have 
roughly doubled and livestock prices have sharply declined, 
there will be a substantial deficit in household incomes in 
the areas affected. 
 
9. (U) Because the study was funded by DPPA, SC-UK pointed 
out that the data is owned by DPPA.  They have not conducted 
an analysis that is based on the current trade restrictions 
persisting and market conditions remaining at the status quo. 
 Additionally, the data does not cover a large part of the 
region where the conditions are thought to be the worst.  As 
economic conditions (pastoral vs. agricultural) are not 
analogous in the un-covered regions and the covered regions, 
a precise estimate of the beneficiary count under status quo 
is not possible. 
 
----------------------- 
"NO TRADE EQUALS DEATH" 
----------------------- 
 
10. (SBU) Both SC-UK and USAID representatives estimated that 
without the trade restrictions being lifted, over 500,000 
people in the Somali Region will need food assistance.  In 
fact, one SC-UK representative stated in stark terms that "No 
trade equals death."  He stated that in the region's markets 
there was nothing left to purchase.  The livestock trade was 
nonexistent and the only trade was illegal trade or 
smuggling.  Additionally, the areas most likely to need 
assistance were in the areas  not accessible to study teams. 
There are reports of the extraordinarily high food prices 
declining somewhat in some markets, indicating that some food 
is getting into the security zones. 
 
-------------------------------- 
MIGRATION: AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN 
-------------------------------- 
 
11. (U) USAID representatives raised concerns about migration 
within the Somali region.  USAID is concerned about "pastoral 
dropouts": pastoralists who have abandoned their former means 
of livelihood and migrated to urban and periurban areas in 
hopes of making a living.  The concern is not only with those 
who have migrated, but those who are left behind.  Those left 
behind have no animals, meat or milk, and with trade 
restrictions there is less opportunity for alternate sources 
of food.  The SC-UK study did not address migration.  NGO 
reports indicate that there are "pastoral dropouts" in and 
around the Jijiga area. 
 
12. (SBU) COMMENT: The SC-UK study results present a good 
news/ bad news situation.  The good news is that in the areas 
assessed, far fewer people than anticipated in the April 2007 
study need food assistance.  The bad news is that there are 
large areas of the region for which there is no information. 
The impact of continuing trade restrictions could be 
potentially devastating, possibly placing over 500,000 people 
in need of food assistance.  The message heard throughout the 
briefing was that, at this time, humanitarian assistance is 
not the answer to the situation--commerce is.  END COMMENT 
YAMAMOTO