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Viewing cable 07SEOUL1756, PROGRESSIVE KINGMAKERS: STILL UNDECIDED ON 2007

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07SEOUL1756 2007-06-08 09:10 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Seoul
VZCZCXYZ0011
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUL #1756/01 1590910
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 080910Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4945
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2620
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2738
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUALSFJ/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA J2 SEOUL KOR
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA J5 SEOUL KOR
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA SCJS SEOUL KOR
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC//OSD/ISA/EAP//
UNCLAS SEOUL 001756 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KS
SUBJECT: PROGRESSIVE KINGMAKERS: STILL UNDECIDED ON 2007 
CANDIDATE 
 
REF: SEOUL 1479 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: President Roh Moo-hyun and former 
President Kim Dae-jung are the kingmakers on the progressive 
side of Korean politics, but with fewer than 200 days to go 
until the December 19 election, neither has made clear whom 
he supports for president.  Meanwhile, on the conservative 
side, either Lee Myung-bak or Park Geun-hye will likely be 
the GNP candidate.  This suggests that the progressive side 
has considerable ground to make up, but allegiances are still 
unclear and there is no progressive front runner.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
-------------- 
FIVE YEARS AGO 
-------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) In April 2002, current President Roh Moo-hyun had 
already secured the New Millennium Democratic Party's (MDP) 
nomination for president.  In June 2002, President Kim 
Dae-jung (DJ) was embroiled in a scandal about his third son, 
who had just been imprisoned for illegal political 
fund-raising.  At that time, DJ's approval rating was sinking 
into the single digits due to multiple scandals and general 
disappointment in his administration.  This was highlighted 
by the MDP's defeat in the June 13, 2002 national elections. 
DJ had little credibility and, while he played a key role in 
helping Roh to the MDP candidacy, by June, DJ had taken a 
back seat to candidate Roh.  Former President Kim Young-sam 
was not an influential figure as he was remembered most in 
2002 as being responsible for the 1997-8 Asian financial 
crisis that shook Korea's economy.  Lee Hoi-chang was picked 
as  the GNP candidate in early May 2002 -- by June 2002, the 
campaign was squarely focused on the two candidates and the 
sitting and former presidents were lame ducks. 
 
---------------- 
FIVE YEARS LATER 
---------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Today, the progressives are far from choosing a 
candidate as multiple groups are jockeying for position and 
hoping to secure public support (reftel).  Currently, only 
former GNP candidate Sohn Hak-kyu receives more than 5 
percent support (he receives between 4 and 6 percent 
depending on the poll).  With no dominant progressive 
candidate, President Roh and Former President Kim Dae-jung 
(DJ) are the key progressive figures.  The top five 
progressive candidates support rates combined amount to 
roughly 10 percent and the Uri Party's approval rate hovers 
around 10 percent.  Therefore, without Roh and DJ's 
intervention and support, the outlook for any progressive 
candidate is not bright. 
 
--------------------------- 
KIM DAE-JUNG BEAUTY CONTEST 
--------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Former President Kim Dae-jung (DJ) has emerged as 
the elder statesman who must be consulted for all progressive 
candidates.  He is such a key figure that President Roh 
Moo-hyun visited DJ at his home in November 2006, an 
unprecedented move for a sitting president.  There is 
widespread speculation about the content of the meeting. 
Some pundits speculate the two made a pact to work together 
to field a competitive candidate this year. 
 
5.  (SBU) Uri Chairman Chung Se-kyun met with DJ on May 30, 
and progressive presidential hopefuls and party leaders - 
including Chung Dong-young (May 26), Park Sang-chon (May 29), 
Sohn Hak-kyu (May 20), Kim Han-gill (May 28), Lee Hae-chan 
(May 30), Kim Hyuk-kyu (May 25), Han Myeong-sook (June 7) and 
Kim Geun-tae -- have been queuing up to call on DJ in the 
last month to seek his advice and support.  While former 
Gyeonggi Governor Sohn is seen by many as DJ's preferred 
choice, most concede that DJ would back any candidate who 
could compete against the GNP.  On June 7, following DJ's 
meeting with Han and former DP Chairman Jang Song, DJ told 
reporters that the candidate who did the most to achieve a 
grand progressive coalition should receive people's support 
as the candidate. 
 
---------------------------- 
ROH MOO-HYUN - 2007 OR 2008? 
---------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) After sinking in January to as low as five percent, 
Roh's popularity has reached as high as 35 percent in recent 
polls.  Roh will likely not be able to maintain this level of 
popularity, but his new-found support and the lack of any 
scandals could allow him to play a key role in this year's 
presidential race throughout the campaign.  Roh's June 2 
speech to his supporters where he lashed out at the GNP and 
even some progressive candidates violated election law, 
according to a June 7 ruling by the Central Election 
Commission.  He said that if the GNP won, "it would cause him 
to shudder in horror."  Many pundits assume Roh hoped to 
solidify his core supporters with the controversial speech. 
The violation of the election law will not result in official 
reprimand, though if Roh appeals the violation, it could 
continue to be a political issue. 
 
7.  (SBU) While Roh's influence is unquestionably 
substantial, his goal remains unclear.  In a May 30 speech at 
a balanced national development seminar in Pohang city, Roh 
hinted at his continued political activity even after his 
term in office, saying, "I am about to retire to my hometown. 
 As someone who has earned much know-how in politics and in 
policy-making, why would I do so?  I am still young.  Were it 
not for the laws, I may even run for the president once again 
without being considered too old.  But I am retiring.  It is 
out of my moral obligation as someone who pursued a balanced 
national development all along."  Some pundits contend Roh 
seeks to put another progressive in the Blue House at any 
cost, while others contend Roh's main goal is to create a new 
party of his loyalists to compete in the April 2008 National 
Assembly elections. 
 
8.  (SBU) Several Blue House sources told poloff that Roh 
backs former PM Lee Hae-chan to succeed him.  Pundits have 
alternatively reported that Roh supports Lee, former PM Han 
Myeong-sook, and former Gyeongsang Governor and former 
American Citizen Kim Hyuk-kyu.  While Rhyu Simin, former 
Health and Welfare Minister and current lawmaker, has designs 
on the Blue House, he will likely wait until 2012 to run 
according to press reports and National Assembly sources. 
Other political analysts even speculate that only if the GNP 
candidate wins the presidency would Roh's political future be 
assured, since Roh's message and political style are better 
suited to the underdog, opposition role. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
CONSERVATIVE KINGMAKERS -- IN THE BACKGROUND 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Former President Kim Young-sam (YS) has not 
achieved DJ-like status for the conservative camp.  On March 
13, YS attended Lee Myung-bak's book publication ceremony and 
has since publicly and informally supported Lee Myung-bak. 
Former PM Kim Jong-pil, who still holds some influence in 
Choong Chung Provinces -- known as Korea's New Hampshire 
because they predict the electoral outcome -- has recently 
appeared at Park Geun-hye political events.  While these two 
political warriors hold some influence, since Lee Myung-bak 
and Park Geun-hye attract the spotlight on their own, YS and 
JP, as much as they would like, will not likely play the king 
(or queen) maker role this year. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
10.  (SBU) Newly formed Moderate Unified Demorcatic Party 
(MUD) Co-Chairman Park Sang-chon said that it was time to 
"wean ourselves from DJ's teat," and form a political 
coalition separate from Roh, former Uri Chairman Chung 
Dong-young and DJ.  While Park and others would like to chart 
a new, progressive course independent from DJ and Roh, with 
no dynamic leaders on the scene and little public support, it 
is unlikely that turning away from Roh and/or DJ will be an 
effective strategy.  With fewer than 200 days until the 
presidential election, kingmakers President Roh and DJ are 
the two players to watch on the progressive side while 
erstwhile candidates Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye are the 
two to watch in the conservative camp. 
STANTON