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Viewing cable 07LAGOS414, RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR INDIVIDUAL STATES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07LAGOS414 2007-06-01 16:07 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Lagos
VZCZCXRO2980
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHOS #0414/01 1521607
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011607Z JUN 07
FM AMCONSUL LAGOS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9042
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 8854
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0040
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0405
RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0384
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0383
RULSDMK/DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHMCSUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000414 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO OPIC 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO TDA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECPS ECON EINV PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR INDIVIDUAL STATES 
 
REF: LAGOS 413 
 
LAGOS 00000414  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1. (U) Summary: On May 24, risk analysis firm Economic 
Associates organized a seminar during which Country and State 
Risk Analyst, Economic Associates, Olly Owen, presented a 
risk-assessment tool developed by Economic Associates that 
rates all 36 Nigerian states on economic, societal, 
political, and security risks to investors. End summary. 
 
2. (U) On May 24, risk analysis firm Economic Associates 
organized a seminar during which Country and State Risk 
Analyst, Economic Associates, Olly Owen, presented a 
risk-assessment tool developed by Economic Associates that 
rates all 36 Nigerian states on economic, societal, 
political, and security risks to investors. The assessment 
was developed using continuous monitoring, as well as 
interview, fieldwork, and documentary research, it provides a 
comprehensive window into the investment climate of 
individual states. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Diversity Necessitates State-Specific Analysis 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
3. (U) Nigerian states are diverse not only culturally, 
ethnically, and religiously, but also politically, 
demographically, and economically. Nigeria's federal system 
devolves significant powers of decision- and policy-making to 
state governments, which have independent fiscal powers to 
tax, spend, and issue debt. Nigeria is beginning to 
experience more internal competition for investment. 
 
4. (U) States' revenues have increased significantly in the 
past several years. Most states derive the majority of 
revenue from the federal government, with the notable 
exception of Lagos State, which generates more revenue 
internally than it receives from the federal account. Given 
this diversity, analysis that examines the state, rather than 
federal, environment is a valuable tool for investors and 
observers. 
 
----------------------- 
Assessing The 36 States 
----------------------- 
 
4. (U) The risk-assessment model examines economic, societal, 
political, and security risks. Each of these dimensions is 
comprised of sub-factors. A preliminary sketch of these is 
presented below. 
 
-- Economic Risk: This includes the presence and availability 
of natural resources; infrastructure; urbanization; human 
resources; environment; and drivers of growth. Paradoxically, 
higher urbanization is considered a greater risk factor, as 
high-density areas are more prone to outbreaks of violence 
and political disruption. The worst-rated states are mainly 
northern, given their environmental marginality. Kano and 
Lagos States, while they are economic centers, are not the 
best-rated due to significant problems with infrastructure. 
The best-rated states are Ogun, Enugu, and Cross-River. All 
of these states have been successful in attracting new 
investment. 
 
-- Societal Risk: This is comprised of ethnicity; religion; 
and social dynamics. The last of these includes a measure for 
income inequality and unemployment, which are thought to 
define and exacerbate conflict along the fault lines of 
ethnicity and religion. The highest-risk state in this 
category is Plateau State, which is marked by 
indigene-settler conflicts and ethnic and religious warfare. 
Communal conflicts are often driven by youth unemployment, 
which is a risk factor in itself. Social consensus is 
important in reducing conflict, and is characteristic of 
Sokoto and Ekiti States. However, not all socially peaceful 
states are ethnically or religiously homogeneous, examples 
are Kwara State and the Federal Capital Territory. 
 
 
LAGOS 00000414  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
-- Political and Governance Risk: This includes corruption; 
local governance; national and party politics; and current 
issues. This dimension presents some interesting changes 
resulting from the recently-held elections. Before the 
elections, the Niger Delta states were considered the highest 
risk. However, election-day activities and post-election 
public reaction have been such that the Southwest and 
Southeast, namely, Enugu and Ekiti, are now considered the 
highest risk states. The states that are middle-ranked in 
this category are ranked that way because of consistently 
poor governance. The lowest-risk states are northern states 
such as Bauchi, Katsina, and the Federal Capital Territory, 
because they are relatively well-governed. Lagos and Kano 
States are democratic but are high-risk states due to the 
fact that they are governed by opposition parties. 
 
-- Security Risk: The three sub-factors that constitute 
security are crime; communal violence; and law enforcement. 
While the prevalence of kidnapping is examined, security is 
understood to be broader than this. Three core Delta States, 
Rivers, Delta, and Bayelsa, are among the five highest-risk 
states. Edo State has the highest risk from conventional 
crimes, including bank raids and armed robbery resulting from 
limited police capacity. Ondo is currently the highest 
security risk state due to violence in the conduct of the 
recent elections. Policing is marginally better in the North. 
However, there are a greater number of parallel security 
companies in the South, which improves the security rating. 
 
5. (U) More information on investment risk across Nigeria can 
be found at www.econassociates.com. 
 
 
 
LATIMER