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Viewing cable 07KINSHASA678, IMF AIMING FOR NEW DRC PROGRAM IN 2007

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07KINSHASA678 2007-06-19 13:34 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Kinshasa
VZCZCXRO9524
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #0678/01 1701334
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191334Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6345
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000678 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR OWHYCHE-SHAW 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN EINV ECON PGOV CG
SUBJECT: IMF AIMING FOR NEW DRC PROGRAM IN 2007 
 
REF: KINSHASA 327 
 
1. (SBU) Summary. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) hopes 
to have a new DRC program in place by the end of 2007.  At 
the end of its two-week Article IV consultation in the DRC, 
the IMF cited currently stable macroeconomic indicators, 
increasing revenues, and a need for external debt relief as 
among the reasons for moving toward negotiations for a new 
DRC program.  The IMF expressed concerns about the "quality" 
of government spending and the lack of governmental policy 
leadership and coordination.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) International Monetary Fund (IMF) Africa Division 
Chief Cyrille Briancon and Resident Representative Xavier 
Maret briefed the diplomatic and donor community June 7, at 
the end of a two-week Article IV consultation.  Briancon, 
Maret and team members also met privately with the Ambassador 
and EmbOffs May 31. Maret also discussed the IMF's program 
and perspective with the American business community at a 
roundtable at the Ambassador's residence on June 18. The team 
last visited in March (reftel) and as usual, they met with a 
range of GDRC officials, including Prime Minister Gizenga; 
the Central Bank Governor; the Ministers of Finance, Budget, 
and Plan; and representatives of both public and private 
enterprises. Their objectives included a review of the DRC's 
performance under the current Staff-Monitored Program, 
consultations on the draft budget and an assessment of 
whether negotiations can begin for a new program.  This trip 
is the last for Briancon, who will be taking a new assignment 
with the IMF. 
 
3. (SBU) Overall, the IMF's conclusions were more positive 
than during the last visit. Briancon said the IMF expects to 
begin negotiations on a new program by September, with the 
(comment: optimistic) goal of having it in place by the end 
of 2007.  Briancon cited improved macroeconomic stability, 
increasing public revenues and a need for debt relief as 
among the reasons the DRC needs a new program. HIPC 
completion point could be achieved after a six-month track 
record on a new program. 
 
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 
------------------------ 
 
4. (U) Briancon pointed out on June 7 that some economic 
indicators have stabilized, albeit only recently. The 
exchange rate has appreciated by nearly 10 percent over the 
previous month, and the inflation rate has stabilized at an 
annualized rate of 18.3 percent, according to the IMF.  The 
team attributed these developments to the Prime Minister's 
instructions to ministers, (especially the Minister of 
Budget) to limit spending to the resulting decreased pressure 
on the Central Bank (BCC), and to the commercial banks' 
recent need to sell dollars to the BCC to meet the demand for 
Congolese Francs. The BCC's foreign reserves increased from 
USD 100 million in March to USD 190 million as of May 30, 
attributed to increased mining sector tax payments and the 
receipt of a scheduled petroleum revenue payment. Further, 
the GDP annual growth rate continues to rise; Briancon said 
under the most optimistic scenario it could reach eight 
percent in 2007. 
 
LACK OF LEADERSHIP 
------------------ 
 
5. (SBU) To obtain long-term economic stability, the IMF team 
said government-level coordination and leadership of the 
economic and financial portfolios is needed. Thus far, the 
IMF has seen little coordination of intra-ministerial or 
inter-ministerial programs and projects, and little progress 
in the development of a cohesive economic plan. 
 
BUDGET 
------ 
 
6. (SBU) The team had only a few criticisms of the 2007 
budget, while focusing more attention on supporting the 
drafting of a "more solid" budget for 2008, a process that 
has already begun.  The National Assembly approved a USD 2.47 
billion CY2007 budget June 14 (septel).  (Note: The Senate 
must approve the budget before it goes to President Kabila 
for signature. There are many as yet unanswered questions 
about the proposed budget and about its unrealistic projected 
revenues. End note.)  Briancon expressed concern about the 
 
KINSHASA 00000678  002 OF 002 
 
 
"quality" of some of the GDRC's spending, particularly in 
defense.  Military spending, he added, has been the "least 
transparent" of budgetary items.  Briancon also said social 
spending needs to be increased. 
 
7. (SBU) Briancon noted that few if any donors have indicated 
they will provide direct budgetary support in 2007. The IMF 
expects that the booming mining sector, particularly in 
copper and cobalt, should drive revenue increases.  Briancon 
said the reform of state enterprises and agencies, including 
the merger of some, is crucial. He recommended the merger of 
DGRAD (administrative and judicial fee collection authority) 
into DGI (DRC's income tax authority). 
 
8. (U) The IMF supported the GDRC's efforts to coordinate 
donor engagement, but said that a Consultative Group meeting 
on this topic would best occur after a 2007 budget is passed 
and to the extent possible, in coordination with a new IMF 
program. Indeed, during the IMF visit, the GDRC decided to 
postpone the June 20-22 Consultative Group meeting until 
October. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9. (SBU)  The IMF's comments must be taken in the context of 
the concerns it noted about the GDRC's lack of financial 
leadership and fiscal discipline. Further, the 2007 
macroeconomic indicators have only stabilized in the last two 
months.  A new program is essential, however, in order to 
facilitate the cancellation of heavy debts, and to re-build 
the country. End comment. 
MEECE