Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 97115 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ETRD EAGR ETTC EAID ECON EFIN ECIN EINV ELAB EAIR ENRG EPET EWWT ECPS EIND EMIN ELTN EC ETMIN EUC EZ ET ELECTIONS ENVR EU EUN EG EINT ER ECONOMICS ES EMS ENIV EEB EN ECE ECOSOC EK ENVIRONMENT EFIS EI EWT ENGRD ECPSN EXIM EIAD ERIN ECPC EDEV ENGY ECTRD EPA ESTH ECCT EINVECON ENGR ERTD EUR EAP EWWC ELTD EL EXIMOPIC EXTERNAL ETRDEC ESCAP ECO EGAD ELNT ECONOMIC ENV ETRN EIAR EUMEM ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID EREL ECOM ECONETRDEAGRJA ETCC ETRG ECONOMY EMED ETR ENERG EITC EFINOECD EURM EENG ERA EXPORT ENRD ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EGEN EBRD EVIN ETRAD ECOWAS EFTA ECONETRDBESPAR EGOVSY EPIN EID ECONENRG EDRC ESENV ETT EB ENER ELTNSNAR ECHEVARRIA ETRC EPIT EDUC ESA EFI ENRGY ESCI EE EAIDXMXAXBXFFR EETC ECIP EIAID EIVN EBEXP ESTN EING EGOV ETRA EPETEIND ELAN ETRDGK EAIDRW ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ENVI ELN EAG EPCS EPRT EPTED ETRB EUM EAIDS EFIC EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM EAIDAR ESF EIDN ELAM EDU EV EAIDAF ECN EDA EXBS EINTECPS ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EPREL EAC EINVEFIN ETA EAGER EINDIR ECA ECLAC ELAP EITI EUCOM ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID EARG ELDIN EINVKSCA ENNP EFINECONCS EFINTS ECCP ETC EAIRASECCASCID EINN ETRP EAIDNI EFQ ECOQKPKO EGPHUM EBUD ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ENERGY ELB EINDETRD EMI ECONEFIN EIB EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EIN EFIM ETIO ELAINE EMN EATO EWTR EIPR EINVETC ETTD ETDR EIQ ECONCS EPPD ENRGIZ EISL ESPINOSA ELEC EAIG ESLCO EUREM ENTG ERD EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EFND EPECO EAIRECONRP ERGR ETRDPGOV ECPN ENRGMO EPWR EET EAIS EAGRE EDUARDO EAGRRP EAIDPHUMPRELUG EICN ECONQH EVN EGHG ELBR EINF EAIDHO EENV ETEX ERNG ED
KMDR KPAO KPKO KJUS KCRM KGHG KFRD KWMN KDEM KTFN KHIV KGIC KIDE KSCA KNNP KHUM KIPR KSUM KISL KIRF KCOR KRCM KPAL KWBG KN KS KOMC KSEP KFLU KPWR KTIA KSEO KMPI KHLS KICC KSTH KMCA KVPR KPRM KE KU KZ KFLO KSAF KTIP KTEX KBCT KOCI KOLY KOR KAWC KACT KUNR KTDB KSTC KLIG KSKN KNN KCFE KCIP KGHA KHDP KPOW KUNC KDRL KV KPREL KCRS KPOL KRVC KRIM KGIT KWIR KT KIRC KOMO KRFD KUWAIT KG KFIN KSCI KTFIN KFTN KGOV KPRV KSAC KGIV KCRIM KPIR KSOC KBIO KW KGLB KMWN KPO KFSC KSEAO KSTCPL KSI KPRP KREC KFPC KUNH KCSA KMRS KNDP KR KICCPUR KPPAO KCSY KTBT KCIS KNEP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNNB KGCC KINR KPOP KMFO KENV KNAR KVIR KDRG KDMR KFCE KNAO KDEN KGCN KICA KIMMITT KMCC KLFU KMSG KSEC KUM KCUL KMNP KSMT KCOM KOMCSG KSPR KPMI KRAD KIND KCRP KAUST KWAWC KTER KCHG KRDP KPAS KITA KTSC KPAOPREL KWGB KIRP KJUST KMIG KLAB KTFR KSEI KSTT KAPO KSTS KLSO KWNN KPOA KHSA KNPP KPAONZ KBTS KWWW KY KJRE KPAOKMDRKE KCRCM KSCS KWMNCI KESO KWUN KPLS KIIP KEDEM KPAOY KRIF KGICKS KREF KTRD KFRDSOCIRO KTAO KJU KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KEN KO KNEI KEMR KKIV KEAI KWAC KRCIM KWCI KFIU KWIC KCORR KOMS KNNO KPAI KBWG KTTB KTBD KTIALG KILS KFEM KTDM KESS KNUC KPA KOMCCO KCEM KRCS KWBGSY KNPPIS KNNPMNUC KWN KERG KLTN KALM KCCP KSUMPHUM KREL KGH KLIP KTLA KAWK KWMM KVRP KVRC KAID KSLG KDEMK KX KIF KNPR KCFC KFTFN KTFM KPDD KCERS KMOC KDEMAF KMEPI KEMS KDRM KEPREL KBTR KEDU KNP KIRL KNNR KMPT KISLPINR KTPN KA KJUSTH KPIN KDEV KTDD KAKA KFRP KWNM KTSD KINL KJUSKUNR KWWMN KECF KWBC KPRO KVBL KOM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KEDM KFLD KLPM KRGY KNNF KICR KIFR KM KWMNCS KAWS KLAP KPAK KDDG KCGC KID KNSD KMPF KPFO KDP KCMR KRMS KNPT KNNNP KTIAPARM KDTB KNUP KPGOV KNAP KNNC KUK KSRE KREISLER KIVP KQ KTIAEUN KPALAOIS KRM KISLAO KWM KFLOA
PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 07ANKARA1272, IMF Board Approval Amid Local Debate

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #07ANKARA1272.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ANKARA1272 2007-05-24 13:06 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ankara
VZCZCXRO5669
RR RUEHDA
DE RUEHAK #1272/01 1441306
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241306Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2255
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 2752
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 1976
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001272 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS - JROSE 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
REF: ANKARA 685 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN TU
SUBJECT: IMF Board Approval Amid Local Debate 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  The IMF Board's May 18 review of Turkey's 
stand-by program focused on the risk of fiscal slippage during an 
election, a risk also identified by many local analysts.  Approval 
of the $1.1 billion IMF tranche also coincides with a rekindled 
debate about what form Turkey's future relationship with the IMF 
should take.  Nationalist and "secular" opposition parties have been 
the most vociferous opponents of the IMF program.  But 
debate about the IMF role is not limited to the opposition -- former 
Central Bank Governor Serdengecti notes a weakening of the IMF 
"anchor" but stresses the need for a strong domestic policy anchor 
following the end of the current stand-by arrangement next year. 
End Summary. 
 
------------------------- 
Fiscal Slippage, Populism 
------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) So far, election-year spending has not been significant 
enough to cause problems with the IMF, as the IMF has firm 
commitments from the government both to block excess 2007 spending 
and make up for any shortfall after the fact.  Nevertheless, as 
election-day approaches, there are press reports about populist GOT 
steps that would cause fiscal slippages.  Among the measures 
reported in the press are: amnesties to 400,000 farmers who 
reportedly owe YTL 400 million to the State; payments to Imar Bank 
bond holders that will cost about YTL 1.6 billion to the budget; 
opening more universities; converting 218,000 temporary workers to 
permanent employment status; broadening  regional investment 
incentives;  supplemental allocations for highway construction; 
increased health expenditures through usage of private hospitals; 
and pre-election government wage hikes. 
 
3. (SBU) These reports need to be taken with a grain of salt, since 
reported policies are often not implemented.  We understand the 
government has assured the IMF it will not add $1.5 billion in 
highway spending, despite press reports.  Nevertheless, the obvious 
election-year pressures lend the reports some credibility to the 
concerns of the IMF.  Prime Minister Erdogan's call for VAT rate 
reductions in his May 23 speech to TUSIAD is an obvious concern. 
 
4. (SBU) Monthly budget results also raise questions about a 
possible election-year fiscal loosening. January-April data show an 
8.3% increase in spending in real terms.  VAT receipts are down 12% 
from last year's level.  Special Consumption tax receipts are also 
down but non-tax revenues -- mostly profits from state-owned 
enterprises -- overperformed.  Still, the overall deficit and 
primary surplus seem to be broadly in line with achieving the 
year-end targets: the January-April primary surplus is 37.8% of the 
full-year target. Nevertheless, IMF rep calculates a shortfall from 
the primary surplus target of about 0.3% of GDP for the first four 
months of the year, i.e. a 1% of GDP shortfall on an annual basis. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Local Debate about Sticking with the IMF 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5 (SBU) Despite the political uncertainties, Turkey's finances seem, 
on their face, stronger than ever.  Investor inflows have driven the 
lira to a level higher than before last spring's sell-off.  Debt and 
reserve ratios are the strongest they have been since before the 
2001 crisis, the elections have also rekindled the debate about the 
necessity of the IMF "anchor."  With investors still pouring into 
Turkey, many Turks wonder why the IMF is still needed. 
 
6. (SBU) The political opposition to AKP is the most vocal anti-IMF 
voice.  The secularist crowds in Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir and Samsun 
featured signs critical of the AKP government's perceived bowing to 
the EU, the U.S., and -- equally prominently -- the IMF. 
Speech-makers at these rallies decry sales of state assets and the 
IMF-supported privatization program. 
 
7. (SBU) Rahsan Ecevit, the widow of former Prime Minister Bulent 
Ecevit, recently volunteered a set of economic policy prescriptions 
as she blessed the election alliance of the leftist CHP and DSP 
parties.  Ecevit called for an end to "submission" to EU and IMF 
demands, as well as termination of land sales to foreigners and an 
end to Turkey being "an open market for U.S. and EU agricultural 
products" (sic).   The radicalism of this agenda reveals the 
economic policy cluelessness of many opposition political figures, 
as reflected in the courts' and President Sezer's frequent 
derailment of economic reform measures, especially privatizations. 
 
8. (SBU)  For his part, CHP leader Deniz Baykal suggests that the 
terms of Turkey's EU accession framework need to be renegotiated and 
that AKP-era privatizations would be questioned if CHP came to 
 
ANKARA 00001272  002 OF 002 
 
 
power.  He characterized as "nut money" the $6.5 billion a Saudi 
investor paid for control of Turk Telekom.  Baykal has stressed the 
need to emphasize local "production" and the "real economy" rather 
than "demand."  This emphasis on local production, echoed by the 
center-right DYP's economic policy expert, has long been a theme of 
statist Turkish economic thinking. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Even Reformers are Debating the post-IMF Program Environment 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
9. (SBU) Readineess to discuss a lessened IMF role is not confined 
to the opposition.  Even economic reformers are talking about it, 
although they frame the debate differently.  Former Central Bank 
Governor Surreyya Serdengecti, a supporter of the IMF program, said 
he believes the IMF anchor had weakened.  He said Turkey needed to 
develop its own "anchor" if the IMF anchor is to be reduced in 
importance.  Similarly, Garanti Bank CEO Ergun Ozgen recently talked 
about the need for a strong IMF surveillance program if the IMF will 
no longer be in a lending role once the current Standby Arrangement 
runs its course.  That people like Serdengecti and Ozen are 
discussing these issues, combined with market bullishness and 
Turkey's reduced vulnerabilities, suggest that even a single-party 
AKP government might consider moving to a reduced IMF role even 
before the existing program ends in spring 2008.  With Turkey's 
traditional dislike of foreign-imposed constraints, if the next 
government thinks it can reduce the IMF's role without being 
punished by markets, it is likely to do so. 
 
Wilson