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Viewing cable 07ZAGREB353, OPPOSITION LEADER RESIGNS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ZAGREB353 2007-04-12 13:23 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Zagreb
VZCZCXRO2618
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVB #0353 1021323
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 121323Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7523
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS ZAGREB 000353 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL HR POLITICAL PARTIES
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER RESIGNS 
 
 
1.  SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Former Prime Minister Ivica Racan 
resigned April 11 as president of the Social Democratic Party 
(SDP), Croatia's largest opposition party, due to health 
reasons.  After weeks of increasingly bleak cancer diagnoses, 
his departure is not unexpected, but coming just seven months 
before expected parliamentary elections with no heir 
apparent, we can also expect serious party soul-searching in 
the coming weeks as prominent SDPers ponder Racan's successor 
both as party president and as candidate for prime minister. 
Top candidates include SDP Deputy President Zeljka Antunovic, 
party economic strategist Ljubo Jurcic, executive board 
member Zoran Milanovic, and Zagreb Mayor Milan Bandic.  END 
SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
RACAN LEAVES SELECTION OF SUCCESSOR TO PARTY 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2.    In his letter of resignation -- which he handed to his 
closest associates in the Zagreb hospital where he is 
receiving cancer treatment )- Racan asked the party to 
continue without him, urging them to call an elective 
convention and "look for new strength" there. Contrary to 
expectations that he would perhaps nominate his successor, 
Racan left the choice to the party, a move acclaimed in the 
media as the most democratic option. 
 
3.  Hours after Racan's decision, Deputy President Antunovic 
announced she would ask the SDP Main Committee to call an 
extraordinary elective convention.  The Committee is expected 
to set the date for the convention at its next meeting on 
April 21.  SDP bylaws require that the new leader should be 
elected within 90 days of the former party president's 
resignation. 
 
4. The highest-ranking SDP parliamentarian, Deputy Speaker 
Mato Arlovic, told the Embassy the upcoming convention should 
fall some time in June and will not seek to elect the entire 
party leadership, but only the president.  Antunovic's 
position as Deputy President may also be put up for election, 
too, if she runs for the presidency, which is to be expected. 
 Arlovic also explained that a "full" elective convention 
would be held soon after the parliamentary elections expected 
in November, as required by the party statute. 
 
SEARCHING FOR A FRONT RUNNER 
---------------------------- 
 
5. COMMENT: There have been no official candidacies for 
Racan's successor, but four names are floating in the media 
in terms of the party presidency and the SDP prime 
ministerial candidate.  Antunovic, who is leading the party 
in this transitional period, is an obvious guess, though the 
SDP's economic strategist Jurcic told the Ambassador April 12 
that he doubted she had the necessary support within the 
party.  Many in the media think she can win the party's rank 
and file but the question whether she would be an adequate 
match for the SDP's chief rival, Prime Minister and HDZ 
President Ivo Sanader. 
 
6. Jurcic, who was minister of economy in the last half of 
Racan's 2000-2003 government, has been unofficially promoted 
as the party's candidate for Prime Minister, but only 
recently applied for SDP membership.  This perhaps made sense 
while Racan was in effective control of the party: Party 
President Racan giving political support to non-party 
"technical" Prime Minister Jurcic.  But now that Racan is out 
of the formula, Jurcic's position is changing.  Barely a 
member, he cannot run for party presidency, and if some other 
party heavyweight becomes president, they are likely to want 
the premiership for themselves. 
 
7. Racan used the word "new strength" in his letter.  Some 
observers interpret it as his suggestion that the party look 
for a wholly new leader.  Media immediately turned to SDP's 
"young lion" Zoran Milanovic, member of the executive board 
and widely considered the party's foreign affairs expert. 
Milanovic declined to comment.  However, his election as 
president would indeed open the door wider for Jurcic's 
candidacy as Prime Minister. 
 
8. And finally, Zagreb Mayor Milan Bandic -- SDP's powerful 
freelancer )- is a name often seen.  This is perhaps more 
because of his influence as Mayor of Zagreb than because the 
party would want him for its president.  END COMMENT. 
BRADTKE