Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 97115 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ETRD EAGR ETTC EAID ECON EFIN ECIN EINV ELAB EAIR ENRG EPET EWWT ECPS EIND EMIN ELTN EC ETMIN EUC EZ ET ELECTIONS ENVR EU EUN EG EINT ER ECONOMICS ES EMS ENIV EEB EN ECE ECOSOC EK ENVIRONMENT EFIS EI EWT ENGRD ECPSN EXIM EIAD ERIN ECPC EDEV ENGY ECTRD EPA ESTH ECCT EINVECON ENGR ERTD EUR EAP EWWC ELTD EL EXIMOPIC EXTERNAL ETRDEC ESCAP ECO EGAD ELNT ECONOMIC ENV ETRN EIAR EUMEM ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID EREL ECOM ECONETRDEAGRJA ETCC ETRG ECONOMY EMED ETR ENERG EITC EFINOECD EURM EENG ERA EXPORT ENRD ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EGEN EBRD EVIN ETRAD ECOWAS EFTA ECONETRDBESPAR EGOVSY EPIN EID ECONENRG EDRC ESENV ETT EB ENER ELTNSNAR ECHEVARRIA ETRC EPIT EDUC ESA EFI ENRGY ESCI EE EAIDXMXAXBXFFR EETC ECIP EIAID EIVN EBEXP ESTN EING EGOV ETRA EPETEIND ELAN ETRDGK EAIDRW ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ENVI ELN EAG EPCS EPRT EPTED ETRB EUM EAIDS EFIC EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM EAIDAR ESF EIDN ELAM EDU EV EAIDAF ECN EDA EXBS EINTECPS ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EPREL EAC EINVEFIN ETA EAGER EINDIR ECA ECLAC ELAP EITI EUCOM ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID EARG ELDIN EINVKSCA ENNP EFINECONCS EFINTS ECCP ETC EAIRASECCASCID EINN ETRP EAIDNI EFQ ECOQKPKO EGPHUM EBUD ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ENERGY ELB EINDETRD EMI ECONEFIN EIB EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EIN EFIM ETIO ELAINE EMN EATO EWTR EIPR EINVETC ETTD ETDR EIQ ECONCS EPPD ENRGIZ EISL ESPINOSA ELEC EAIG ESLCO EUREM ENTG ERD EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EFND EPECO EAIRECONRP ERGR ETRDPGOV ECPN ENRGMO EPWR EET EAIS EAGRE EDUARDO EAGRRP EAIDPHUMPRELUG EICN ECONQH EVN EGHG ELBR EINF EAIDHO EENV ETEX ERNG ED
KMDR KPAO KPKO KJUS KCRM KGHG KFRD KWMN KDEM KTFN KHIV KGIC KIDE KSCA KNNP KHUM KIPR KSUM KISL KIRF KCOR KRCM KPAL KWBG KN KS KOMC KSEP KFLU KPWR KTIA KSEO KMPI KHLS KICC KSTH KMCA KVPR KPRM KE KU KZ KFLO KSAF KTIP KTEX KBCT KOCI KOLY KOR KAWC KACT KUNR KTDB KSTC KLIG KSKN KNN KCFE KCIP KGHA KHDP KPOW KUNC KDRL KV KPREL KCRS KPOL KRVC KRIM KGIT KWIR KT KIRC KOMO KRFD KUWAIT KG KFIN KSCI KTFIN KFTN KGOV KPRV KSAC KGIV KCRIM KPIR KSOC KBIO KW KGLB KMWN KPO KFSC KSEAO KSTCPL KSI KPRP KREC KFPC KUNH KCSA KMRS KNDP KR KICCPUR KPPAO KCSY KTBT KCIS KNEP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNNB KGCC KINR KPOP KMFO KENV KNAR KVIR KDRG KDMR KFCE KNAO KDEN KGCN KICA KIMMITT KMCC KLFU KMSG KSEC KUM KCUL KMNP KSMT KCOM KOMCSG KSPR KPMI KRAD KIND KCRP KAUST KWAWC KTER KCHG KRDP KPAS KITA KTSC KPAOPREL KWGB KIRP KJUST KMIG KLAB KTFR KSEI KSTT KAPO KSTS KLSO KWNN KPOA KHSA KNPP KPAONZ KBTS KWWW KY KJRE KPAOKMDRKE KCRCM KSCS KWMNCI KESO KWUN KPLS KIIP KEDEM KPAOY KRIF KGICKS KREF KTRD KFRDSOCIRO KTAO KJU KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KEN KO KNEI KEMR KKIV KEAI KWAC KRCIM KWCI KFIU KWIC KCORR KOMS KNNO KPAI KBWG KTTB KTBD KTIALG KILS KFEM KTDM KESS KNUC KPA KOMCCO KCEM KRCS KWBGSY KNPPIS KNNPMNUC KWN KERG KLTN KALM KCCP KSUMPHUM KREL KGH KLIP KTLA KAWK KWMM KVRP KVRC KAID KSLG KDEMK KX KIF KNPR KCFC KFTFN KTFM KPDD KCERS KMOC KDEMAF KMEPI KEMS KDRM KEPREL KBTR KEDU KNP KIRL KNNR KMPT KISLPINR KTPN KA KJUSTH KPIN KDEV KTDD KAKA KFRP KWNM KTSD KINL KJUSKUNR KWWMN KECF KWBC KPRO KVBL KOM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KEDM KFLD KLPM KRGY KNNF KICR KIFR KM KWMNCS KAWS KLAP KPAK KDDG KCGC KID KNSD KMPF KPFO KDP KCMR KRMS KNPT KNNNP KTIAPARM KDTB KNUP KPGOV KNAP KNNC KUK KSRE KREISLER KIVP KQ KTIAEUN KPALAOIS KRM KISLAO KWM KFLOA
PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 07PARIS1595, ELECTION EVE: BETWEEN SARKOZY AND ROYAL

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #07PARIS1595.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07PARIS1595 2007-04-20 11:27 2011-08-24 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Paris
VZCZCXRO1872
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHFR #1595/01 1101127
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 201127Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6639
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHMRE/AMCONSUL MARSEILLE PRIORITY 1676
RUEHSR/AMCONSUL STRASBOURG PRIORITY 0404
RUEHC/DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001595 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, 
AND EB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: ELECTION EVE: BETWEEN SARKOZY AND ROYAL 
 
REF: A. (A) PARIS 1566 
 
     B. (B) PARIS 1491 AND PREVIOUS 
     C. (C) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY SIPRNET REPORT FOR 
        20APR07 AND PREVIOUS 
 
PARIS 00001595  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  Please treat accordingly. 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  In the final days before the April 22 
first round of the French presidential election, the latest 
polls continue to predict that center-right UMP candidate 
Nicolas Sarkozy, followed by Socialist Party candidate 
Segolene Royal, will be the two victors for the May 7 
run-off.  Centrist UDF candidate Francois Bayrou and 
right-wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen are still placed third 
and fourth.  The well-respected SOFRES polling firm's latest 
sounding of opinion taken April 16-17 puts Sarkozy at 28.5 
percent of first-round voter intentions, Royal at 25 percent, 
Bayrou at 19 percent and Le Pen at 14 percent.  This 
one-two-three-four relative standing in the polls has not 
changed since mid-February, when Bayrou surged past Le Pen. 
That said, each of France's seven presidential elections so 
far has had its "surprise," usually a reversal of fortune for 
a leader in the polls.  The most likely "surprise" outcome 
for Sunday, according to polling reports, is a reversal of 
the order of the first two candidates.  A first-place finish 
for Royal -- or even a very close second-place finish -- 
could dramatically change the dynamic, and the momentum going 
into the second round.  The probability of centrist Bayrou 
qualifying for the second round appears to have diminished 
significantly in recent days. 
 
2.  (SBU) SUMMARY CONT'D:  France's eighth election of a 
president by universal suffrage has a number of 
distinguishing features.  The leading candidates represent a 
change of generation.  Both Royal and Sarkozy have challenged 
the status quo in their parties and in France.  Royal is 
France's first serious female presidential candidate.  One of 
the leading candidates -- Sarkozy -- is a polarizing figure, 
as feared as he is respected.  The political context is 
characterized by a shifting to the right of the political 
mainstream.  Sunday's outcome seems fairly clear, setting up 
a likely very close second round, with Royal and Sarkozy 
pulling out all the stops between April 22 and May 6.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
THE LINE-UP IN LATEST POLLS 
---------------------------- 
3.  (U) As France enters the final days of the first-round 
presidential campaign, polling data suggests that 
center-right UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy is still on track 
to win on April 22, with Segolene Royal likely to place 
second.  The well-respected SOFRES polling firm's latest 
sounding of opinion taken April 16 -17 puts Sarkozy at 28.5 
percent of first-round voter intentions, Socialist Party 
candidate Segolene Royal at 25 percent, centrist UDF party 
candidate Bayrou at 19 percent, and right-wing extremist 
Jean-Marie Le Pen at 14 percent.  Two other leading polls 
also taken earlier this week -- by the BVA and IPSOS firms -- 
reflect the same line-up with the following percentages: 
Sarkozy, 29 and 30; Royal, 25 and 23.5; Bayrou, 15 and 18.5; 
and Le Pen, 13 and 13.  Bayrou clearly remains the wild card; 
some polls show him going up, others going down.  For Bayrou 
to finish second, he would need to capture a large, probably 
unattainable, majority of the undecideds. 
 
BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY 
----------------------- 
4.  (SBU) Given the notorious unreliability of French voters, 
many nonetheless continue to believe that France's 8th 
presidential election, like nearly all preceding ones, still 
holds a possible surprise.  In the very first election in 
1965, General De Gaulle was "humiliatingly" forced into a 
run-off by Socialist Francois Mitterrand when he unexpectedly 
failed to obtain 50 percent of the vote in the first round. 
In the most recent presidential election, in 2002, Socialist 
PM Lionel Jospin was unexpectedly eliminated by Le Pen.  This 
year's election features a number of "uncertainty factors" 
that could still affect the outcome: 
 
THE SARKOZY FACTOR 
 
PARIS 00001595  002.4 OF 003 
 
 
------------------ 
5.  (SBU) Sarkozy has emphasized issues such as immigration 
and opposition to Turkey's membership in the EU in an effort 
to draw Le Pen voters into the political mainstream.  At the 
same time, Bayrou has taken away political space in the 
center.  Sarkozy's strategy is consistent with the general 
view that the French electorate overall has itself moved to 
the right, but it also represents an attempt to deprive the 
far-right of its oxygen (much along the lines of Mitterrand's 
strategy vis-a-vis the Communists).  The shift itself, as 
well as Sarkozy's pugnacious and hyperkinetic personality, 
has served to limit his appeal despite an overall 
appreciation of his competence.  If, in addition,  far-right 
voters choose in the end to stay with Le Pen rather than vote 
for Sarkozy, Sarkozy's score in the first round would be 
insufficient to give him the strong first-place finish he 
seeks in order to build momentum going into the second round. 
 
THE ROYAL CALCULUS 
------------------ 
6.  (SBU) Royal has focused increasingly in the last week on 
the symbolism of electing a female president as well as the 
necessity of unifying the left in order to avoid a repeat of 
the 2002 first-round defeat of her party.  She has attempted 
to appeal to the center enough to win votes away from Bayrou 
and has highlighted Sarkozy's scariness in order to mobilize 
the left behind her as the only way to stop Sarkozy.  Fear of 
Sarkozy serves also as a justification for drawing away 
potential Bayrou voters who may support Bayrou's centrist 
views but believe he cannot ultimately win.  Moreover, French 
voters can choose change simply by voting for a woman. 
Royal's strategy appears to be paying off in the last days of 
the campaign, to the point where it is possible that she 
could still surprise everyone and come in first place in the 
first round.  Even if she ultimately places only second to 
Sarkozy, if she succeeds in closing the gap substantially 
between them, she could enter the second round as the 
candidate with momentum. 
 
BAYROU THE SPOILER? 
------------------- 
7.  (SBU) Bayrou has continued to pound the left and the 
right, but in a manner aimed at increasing his attractiveness 
primarily to those uncomfortable with Sarkozy.  On the one 
hand, he genuinely appeals to those who are tired of 
left-right gridlock and are seeking a "third way" for dealing 
with France's challenges.  A number of analysts continue to 
insist that Bayrou still has a chance of edging out Royal and 
getting into the second round if he should surge in the 48 
hours preceding April 22.  But we see this as highly 
unlikely.  A key element in Bayrou's appeal was that he, not 
Royal, could defeat Sarkozy.  As Royal's fortunes have 
improved, and his standing declined, the "anyone but Sarkozy" 
rationale may be moving back in her direction. 
 
A DIFFERENT ELECTION 
-------------------- 
8.  (SBU) This may not be the watershed election it was 
originally billed as, but it does have some distinguishing 
features.  For the first time, a woman has a clear chance to 
become president.  (It is not clear whether Royal's gender 
will ultimately work for or against her.)  One of the 
candidates is a polarizing figure; indeed, Sarkozy in effect 
has become the theme of the election.  Both Sarkozy and Royal 
represent a new generation of leaders.  Both can be seen as 
rebels in their own camps, shaking up the status quo.  On the 
other hand, specific foreign policy issues, including how to 
relaunch Europe following France's 2005 rejection of the EU 
constitutional treaty or relations with the U.S., have not 
featured prominently. 
 
9.  (SBU) We will only know in retrospect what this election 
really was about, and the first-round results could take on 
new significance two weeks later when the French have made 
their choice between the two finalists.  For now, we are 
looking at a Sunday election result that will likely set up a 
classic left-right confrontation, but with very non-classic, 
next-generation candidates.  The order in which these 
candidates -- Nicholas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal -- finish, 
and the relative strength of their showings, will have a 
 
PARIS 00001595  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
strong impact on the election of France's next president on 
May 6. 
 
 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
STAPLETON